first pick for keeper draft

[jwinter228]

I posted the other day but found out that Kinsler isn't available in our keeper draft. It's a 10-team H2H league with 5x5 plus BB's & SLG% for batters and K/BB for pitchers. Here's my team so far:

C- Martin
1B- ?
2B- ?
3B- ?
SS- Reyes
OF- Sizemore
OF- BJ Upton
OF- Quentin
2 Utils- ?
SP- Lincecum
SP- Billingsley
RP- Soria
RP- ?
P- ?
P- ?

Top available players:
Crawford
Holliday
Morneau
Manny
Vlad
Ortiz
Kemp
Hamels

As you can see I have 3 OF's already but going for the best player is still ideal. The Slugging % and walks put a bit of an emphasis on stats like OPS. Thanks for any help!

[twistedude]

Take Morneau. Fills a hole at 1B, and is near the top of that list of availables in terms of value anyway.

[jwinter228]

Take Morneau. Fills a hole at 1B, and is near the top of that list of availables in terms of value anyway.

How much concern is there with Mauer potentially being out of the lineup? There's no doubt to me that Morneau could be my pick but I'm just concerned about opportunities he'll have with the relatively weak lineup that surrounds him.

[tavo2311]

Take Morneau. Fills a hole at 1B, and is near the top of that list of availables in terms of value anyway.

How much concern is there with Mauer potentially being out of the lineup? There's no doubt to me that Morneau could be my pick but I'm just concerned about opportunities he'll have with the relatively weak lineup that surrounds him.

While Mauer missing time will affect Morneau's RBI total, when I look at the top tier players I try to just draft "them" and not their lineup, team, park, etc... In my opinion, I've always found these things to be overrated. They can be used as a tie-breaker between some very similar players, but it doesn't look like there is another similar 1B to Morneau.

I learned this lesson in 2004/2005. Everyone was downgrading Carlos Lee WAY too much because of his move from a good White Sox team in a good hitter park, to an awful lineup in Milwaukee. While his average did drop, the rest of his stats stayed the same (up a little actually, but also played 10 more games). This happens all the time, I don't know why this example sticks out at me? Maybe because I didn't keep him in a keeper league or something, I honestly forget.

[dave knight]

Top available players:
2 Crawford
3 Holliday
5 Morneau
1 Manny
7 Vlad
8 Ortiz
4 Kemp
6 Hamels