So I ran projected values for my league tonight. I did it once using the projections from J35J's spreadsheet (thanks, Jason); I did it once using CBS Sportsline's projections since that what we use and I can get our custom stat projected very easily; and I did it again using roughly our categories from lastplayerpicked.com.
One of the players who stood out was Brad Hawpe, both because all 3 valuation systems liked him better than the players he's tiered with, and because they all came in at around the same value. What do people think? Is he going to be a decent late-round value?
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
4th OF or back-end 3rd, I'd think. No reason why he should post anything significantly better or worse than last year's line, in which he had only 15-30 AB less than usual despite the shortened season. Apart from '07's ISO spike his numbers have been remarkably consistent for the last 3 years. BABIP, HR/FB, BB rate, K rate, OBP, basically everything.
Last edited by Neato Torpedo on Sat Mar 14, 2009 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
I'm not sure how late you can get him, but I definitely like him...even moreso in OPS leagues. He is one of the only Colorado players who hits equally well on the road as at home. I honestly don't know why he is rated with such mediocrity this season. I took him at pick 9.12 (#108) in a 6x6 league with OPS (and starting 5 OF) and was quite happy with the pick. He'll be turning 30 this season, so he's still in his prime...and he's incredibly consistent.
The only knocks on him that I can think of are as follows...he's been carrying around a BABIP which is a too high to sustain (.346 on average the past 3 years), he probably peaked/reached his ceiling in 2007 (29HR, 116RBI, .920OPS), and his surrounding cast isn't as potent as it has been (Holliday's gone and Atkins has regressed). That's not enough to scare me away in round 10 of an OPS league. I see mocks around here where he goes in round 12, but that seems too late for him IMO. I didn't expect him to sustain his 2007 numbers in 2008, so while some may see a guy on the decline, I see a guy who regressed to his mean...a very productive mean (25HR, 85RBI, .879OPS).
IMO He has great value this year relative to his ADP...particularly in OPS leagues.
The discriminator in his value will be whether or not he can maintain his improvement against LHP that he displayed last year. It could be that this is just a sample size issue and he will revert to a 67% useful fantasy player who needs to be on the bench versus LHP, but if he truely turned the corner he could surprise people this year.