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Draft strategy question

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Draft strategy question

Postby metsfan12 » Fri Mar 13, 2009 4:10 pm

I am in a competitive roto league with 12 teams and normal 5x5 categories. Every year I think I should take 1 or 2 guys like Balfour, Kuo, Howell etc. Then I draft one of them and end up dropping him within the first 2 weeks for some SP or OF that I think might have a big season. Then, closer to the end of the season I end up playing 2-3 of these guys to get my ratios down and Ks up with the limited innings. I am not sure if I should draft and try and play 1-2 of these guys all season to benefit more from their ratios and high K/IP or if I am then going to miss out on some unknown studs that I might have grabbed instead. In other words I might have missed out on a guy like McLouth last year if I had instead used a spot on Balfour. What do you guys think is the better route to go come draft day? If you had to pick between Balfour and an extra OF like Span or an extra SP like Kershaw/Hanson which is better?
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Re: Draft strategy question

Postby milkmoney » Fri Mar 13, 2009 5:56 pm

I would take a Span over Balfour simply because Balfour gives you basically nothing at this point. Not even saves with Percival starting. He probably won't even be drafted. Span on the other hand will get at least 300 AB and should get you 20 steals, which is better than 10% of what you need in one category.
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Re: Draft strategy question

Postby metsfan12 » Fri Mar 13, 2009 8:51 pm

I don't see how you can possibly say Balfour gives you nothing in a league with an IP limit. 6 wins and 4 saves with an awesome K rate and excellent ratios. Per IP, Balfour was by far the best pitcher last year. If you had played Kuo and Balfour all last year you would have had 11 wins, 5 saves, 178 Ks a sub 2.00 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP in 138.1 innings. That is help in every category. The only thing they don't help you with is that they take up roster spots and as much as their numbers are great they are in small doses. If we had unlimited roster spots and P spots everyone would stock up on MRs. 300 AB and 20 SB is pretty worthless because I'd have to sit someone to get those stolen bases. Balfour on the other hand would be replacing some innings from my 5th starter so you can see the difference there.
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Re: Draft strategy question

Postby SlayeratCP » Fri Mar 13, 2009 9:05 pm

why did you ask just to answer your own question?
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Re: Draft strategy question

Postby bazzy_51 » Fri Mar 13, 2009 9:07 pm

SlayeratCP wrote:why did you ask just to answer your own question?


agree 100%, was gonna say it myself but didn't... don't understand why people come on asking for help (in other words our opinions) and then turn right around and say we are wrong... do it your damn self then... wow... :-P :-P :-t
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Re: Draft strategy question

Postby metsfan12 » Sat Mar 14, 2009 9:16 am

SlayeratCP wrote:why did you ask just to answer your own question?


I didn't answer my own question, but someone that says Balfour gives you nothing 1) needs to be corrected and 2) is not able to answer my question intelligently. I still don't know if it makes more sense to take Span and see if he breaks out and if he doesn't after 2 months then pick up a good MR or if I should draft a guy like Kuo or Balfour instead. That is my question and no I didn't answer it myself. I hate people that fill threads with worthless posts. This is my thread, answer my post or move on.
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Re: Draft strategy question

Postby kimchi_chigae » Sat Mar 14, 2009 9:43 am

Relax, guys. Let's keep the replies friendly. :-)
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Re: Draft strategy question

Postby tdmel30 » Sat Mar 14, 2009 12:33 pm

I have actually become a big fan of this strategy over the last couple years. It has helped take me from muddling in the middle of the pack to winning the league the last two years. My situation may be a little different as we have a fixed number of pitcher and hitter roster spots and no bench to store players on. So, I don't have the option of dropping a MR for a hitter.

As was stated earlier, the argument against this strategy is that, with fewer innings, their numbers don't have a great affect on your overall numbers. However, I look at it different. You are not just getting the good ratios in limited innings from them, you are eliminating a SP with more innings that is negatively affecting those ratios. I'd much rather have a few innings with an era in the mid 2's and whip around 1 than a lot of innings of an era over 4 and a whip over 1.5. Simply taking those negative numbers out makes you better.
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Re: Draft strategy question

Postby metsfan12 » Sat Mar 14, 2009 11:39 pm

tdmel30 wrote:I have actually become a big fan of this strategy over the last couple years. It has helped take me from muddling in the middle of the pack to winning the league the last two years. My situation may be a little different as we have a fixed number of pitcher and hitter roster spots and no bench to store players on. So, I don't have the option of dropping a MR for a hitter.

As was stated earlier, the argument against this strategy is that, with fewer innings, their numbers don't have a great affect on your overall numbers. However, I look at it different. You are not just getting the good ratios in limited innings from them, you are eliminating a SP with more innings that is negatively affecting those ratios. I'd much rather have a few innings with an era in the mid 2's and whip around 1 than a lot of innings of an era over 4 and a whip over 1.5. Simply taking those negative numbers out makes you better.


Yeah, your league is different then. Mine has an IP limit and if you don't reach the limit you are doing something wrong.
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Re: Draft strategy question

Postby dave knight » Sun Mar 15, 2009 12:00 am

The middle relief stars for each year are so hard to predict that I would avoid them for the most part in the draft. Get some guys with a track record of good fantasy stats for a few years in a row, as opposed to Balfour's one good year which could just as easily go south in 09. Balfour came out of nowhere in 08, and had a lousy 07. So keep your eyes peeled for breakouts in the season.
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