Which of these OFs has the highest ceiling this year?

[San D]

I'll try. Werth obviously had a unusually good year last year in the power and speed departments. However, he has shown this ability in his younger years (2004 for power and 2005 for speed). He has spent a lot of time out with injuries, so one could make the argument that this could be his age 27 development year. He has managed to keep a good OBP and OK power versus righties the last couple of years so the manager said he won't sit more than 15 or so games this year. He has good pedigree as a first rounder and might even have better skills than a similar 6-5" player being drafted ahead of him (Corey Hart). I could see an upside of 30-30 with the increased PT and no injuries.

Ok but staying health is a skill and he hasn't been very good at it. Chances are, his body will breakdown more as he gets older.

What are the chances of him riding the pine if he doesn't perform well?

Those are definitely his concerns. I tend to put a lot of stock in previous year stats when it comes to injuries which has obviously burned me in the past but helped me in others. I don't see much concern with his riding the pine and would put his downside as last year if he stays healthy. However, as you pointed out, health is his main concern. The injury past drops him 4-5 rounds after Corey Hart but the fact that his most current year (2008) was healthy makes many people bullish.

[auclairkeithbc]

Dukes by far. But he isn't going to get there probably. Could have a Quentin-like break out and it would be about as surprising.

[Ender]

Ok but staying health is a skill and he hasn't been very good at it. Chances are, his body will breakdown more as he gets older.

It is a skill to a degree, but random trauma based injuries are still going to happen regardless. You really have to look at the type of injury to decide if it is avoidable or not.

[smoovethug]

He has good pedigree as a first rounder and might even have better skills than a similar 6-5" player being drafted ahead of him (Corey Hart).

I understand that Werth has dealt with injuries in his past but getting him 5-6 rounds later than Corey Hart is an absolute gift. I won't say that I can see Werth going 30/30 but I will say that a 20/20 year is in the bag. I've said this in his thread in the 09 predictions forum: not only does he have good speed but he's smart on the bases, evidenced by his career sb% of 89.7 (44 sb in 49 attempts). Couple this with the fact that he's a pupil of Davey Lopes, who led the Phils to a ML record in sb efficiency (87%, 138/157) in 07, and I can't see how he fails to steal 20 barring injury. Manuel has the tendency to ride a hot bat here and there so sure Jenkins will see some time against a few tough RHPs. While everyone sees the fluctuation in BA from LHP to RHP (.303/.255) his OBP remained virtually unaffected (.368/.360). Also understand that Jenkins in the field is a huge downgrade from the athletic ability of Werth. Manuel has stated that he thinks Werth has proven that he's an everyday player. This all leads me to believe that Werth will get the bulk of ABs.


Highest ceiling:
Dukes
Werth

Span

[Yoda]

OK I'm starting to warm up. But are you guys all expecting him to stay healthy AND produce?

[smoovethug]

I'm not saying he's going to go the entire 09 season without a small setback here and there because he very well may not. I do think he'll stay healthy enough to outproduce his ADP though.

[hardcore]

Werth is a better value than Abreu 2 rounds later.

[Snakes Gould]

He has good pedigree as a first rounder and might even have better skills than a similar 6-5" player being drafted ahead of him (Corey Hart).

I understand that Werth has dealt with injuries in his past but getting him 5-6 rounds later than Corey Hart is an absolute gift. I won't say that I can see Werth going 30/30 but I will say that a 20/20 year is in the bag. I've said this in his thread in the 09 predictions forum: not only does he have good speed but he's smart on the bases, evidenced by his career sb% of 89.7 (44 sb in 49 attempts). Couple this with the fact that he's a pupil of Davey Lopes, who led the Phils to a ML record in sb efficiency (87%, 138/157) in 07, and I can't see how he fails to steal 20 barring injury. Manuel has the tendency to ride a hot bat here and there so sure Jenkins will see some time against a few tough RHPs. While everyone sees the fluctuation in BA from LHP to RHP (.303/.255) his OBP remained virtually unaffected (.368/.360). Also understand that Jenkins in the field is a huge downgrade from the athletic ability of Werth. Manuel has stated that he thinks Werth has proven that he's an everyday player. This all leads me to believe that Werth will get the bulk of ABs.


Highest ceiling:
Dukes
Werth

Span

wow. perfectly put. i really cant say anything more than this.


i dont see how 25/25 is his ABSOLUTE ceiling when he went 24 and 20 last season when he was platooning part time with jenkins for a good portion of the year.

[AussieDodger]

He has good pedigree as a first rounder and might even have better skills than a similar 6-5" player being drafted ahead of him (Corey Hart).

I understand that Werth has dealt with injuries in his past but getting him 5-6 rounds later than Corey Hart is an absolute gift. I won't say that I can see Werth going 30/30 but I will say that a 20/20 year is in the bag. I've said this in his thread in the 09 predictions forum: not only does he have good speed but he's smart on the bases, evidenced by his career sb% of 89.7 (44 sb in 49 attempts). Couple this with the fact that he's a pupil of Davey Lopes, who led the Phils to a ML record in sb efficiency (87%, 138/157) in 07, and I can't see how he fails to steal 20 barring injury. Manuel has the tendency to ride a hot bat here and there so sure Jenkins will see some time against a few tough RHPs. While everyone sees the fluctuation in BA from LHP to RHP (.303/.255) his OBP remained virtually unaffected (.368/.360). Also understand that Jenkins in the field is a huge downgrade from the athletic ability of Werth. Manuel has stated that he thinks Werth has proven that he's an everyday player. This all leads me to believe that Werth will get the bulk of ABs.


Highest ceiling:
Dukes
Werth

Span

Nicely put smoovey


(I'll trade him to you if you like )

[The Artful Dodger]

i dont see how 25/25 is his ABSOLUTE ceiling when he went 24 and 20 last season when he was platooning part time with jenkins for a good portion of the year.

Because you need glasses, sunshine, the kind that aren't the Philly rose red lens variety.

I just don't see Werth panning out as a 30 homerun guy. Maybe if his average against righties improves (he's a .251 lifetime hitter against RHP). However, it's still hard to get a beat on Werth in general when injuries have stopped him in his track. He did manage to hit 15 HR as a Dodger in 2004 on 290 AB for what it's worth, but I think back then it was optimistic to believe he'd hit 30 that year too.