Yoda wrote:What is up with all the Werth love this year?
People see 24 HRs and 20 SBs in 400 ABs and assume he can repeat that and keep that up over 550 ABs...
Call me a nonbeliever but I'll take the under in both HR/SB.... I see a 30 yo career backup, platoon guy who hit abnormally high # of HR against lefties. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise?
I'm with you Yoda, I'm simply playing the devil's advocate
i would wonder about playing time for Span in the crowded Twins outfield. Dukes probually has more potential, but the Nationals outfield is crowded too. Werth had the better numbers last season, but he could just as easily end up in a platoon with Jenkins only playing against LH pitching. last season Werth numbers vs RH- .255 AVG/ .360 OBP/ .407 SLG/ .767 OPS/. he had 16 of his 24 HR against LH pitching. but 13 of his 20 SB against RH pitching. if it was me i might be searching who else is available with good potential, but right now of the 3 mentioned i think Werth is probually the safer bet.
Though I'd probably take Werth over Dukes too because I just don't trust Dukes to get the playtime. Werth has always had 20+ HR pop, he just never got the playtime to show it mostly because of injuries.
Yoda wrote:What is up with all the Werth love this year?
People see 24 HRs and 20 SBs in 400 ABs and assume he can repeat that and keep that up over 550 ABs...
Call me a nonbeliever but I'll take the under in both HR/SB.... I see a 30 yo career backup, platoon guy who hit abnormally high # of HR against lefties. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise?
I'll try. Werth obviously had a unusually good year last year in the power and speed departments. However, he has shown this ability in his younger years (2004 for power and 2005 for speed). He has spent a lot of time out with injuries, so one could make the argument that this could be his age 27 development year. He has managed to keep a good OBP and OK power versus righties the last couple of years so the manager said he won't sit more than 15 or so games this year. He has good pedigree as a first rounder and might even have better skills than a similar 6-5" player being drafted ahead of him (Corey Hart). I could see an upside of 30-30 with the increased PT and no injuries.
j24jags wrote:People see 24 HRs and 20 SBs in 400 ABs and assume he can repeat that and keep that up over 550 ABs...
Call me a nonbeliever but I'll take the under in both HR/SB.... I see a 30 yo career backup, platoon guy who hit abnormally high # of HR against lefties. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise?
I'll try. Werth obviously had a unusually good year last year in the power and speed departments. However, he has shown this ability in his younger years (2004 for power and 2005 for speed). He has spent a lot of time out with injuries, so one could make the argument that this could be his age 27 development year. He has managed to keep a good OBP and OK power versus righties the last couple of years so the manager said he won't sit more than 15 or so games this year. He has good pedigree as a first rounder and might even have better skills than a similar 6-5" player being drafted ahead of him (Corey Hart). I could see an upside of 30-30 with the increased PT and no injuries.
Werth has also had bad luck with injuries (i.e. getting hit in the wrist a couple of times). I don't see Werth touching 30/30 and 25/25 is his absolute ceiling.
Just to caution, rotoworld reports that Span is 3 for 25 this spring. He's still worth looking at of course, but may start the year in a platoon role.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
San D wrote:I'll try. Werth obviously had a unusually good year last year in the power and speed departments. However, he has shown this ability in his younger years (2004 for power and 2005 for speed). He has spent a lot of time out with injuries, so one could make the argument that this could be his age 27 development year. He has managed to keep a good OBP and OK power versus righties the last couple of years so the manager said he won't sit more than 15 or so games this year. He has good pedigree as a first rounder and might even have better skills than a similar 6-5" player being drafted ahead of him (Corey Hart). I could see an upside of 30-30 with the increased PT and no injuries.
Ok but staying health is a skill and he hasn't been very good at it. Chances are, his body will breakdown more as he gets older.
What are the chances of him riding the pine if he doesn't perform well?
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
San D wrote:I'll try. Werth obviously had a unusually good year last year in the power and speed departments. However, he has shown this ability in his younger years (2004 for power and 2005 for speed). He has spent a lot of time out with injuries, so one could make the argument that this could be his age 27 development year. He has managed to keep a good OBP and OK power versus righties the last couple of years so the manager said he won't sit more than 15 or so games this year. He has good pedigree as a first rounder and might even have better skills than a similar 6-5" player being drafted ahead of him (Corey Hart). I could see an upside of 30-30 with the increased PT and no injuries.
Ok but staying health is a skill and he hasn't been very good at it. Chances are, his body will breakdown more as he gets older.
What are the chances of him riding the pine if he doesn't perform well?
He'll get a good long look, but if he consistently struggles they won't hesitate to put Jenkins in. I can't believe he got a 2 year $13 million contract before last season
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by j24jags » Thu Mar 12, 2009 4:24 pm 
