Trade Help Please

[dukefan]

Im Getting
Matt Holliday
Mike Avilies

Im Giving
Grady Sizemore


This is not a keeper league or anything like that, I was wondering if you guys think I win this trade..

[Xezus]

I think you are definitely getting the riskier side of the deal. Sizemore is the #1 OF in everydraft, whereas holliday hits terrible away from Coors Field, but maybe he will find another place where he gets comfortable like Oakland, idk...i dont think there would be much difference between Aviles and the next guy on the Waiver wire, not enough difference to support the drop from sizemore to holliday, so i would say no to this trade.

[dukefan]

ok thanks

anyone else have advice for me?

what if i did chipper and ichiro for sizemore would that be a better deal for me?

[Dodgerbluesc]

Well I don't know anyone that would go so far as to say Holliday hits terrible away from Coors. That is false.

Holliday will hit .310+ with 25+ HR and 100+ RBI/R this year... The issue with him is his lack of protection in the Oakland lineup and the less than stellar OBP in front of him (although Cabrera should help). So instead of 125 RBI, he might end up with 105. Instead of scoring 120 times, he may only score 100.

Also, the fact that Oakland will likely not run him as much. ESPECIALLY if Giambi hits behind him. I haven't heard anyone mention it, but I've heard Billy Beane talk about not running in front of a guy who walks a lot. A few years back he mentioned that the guy who walks effectively negates any benefit of the stolen base, so you're taking on the risk of losing an out without the benefit of gaining a base since the guy walked anyways. Does that make sense?

I think you can pencil Holliday in for .310/28/105/100/15... Aviles, with some regression in his BABIP will probably go something like .280/13/65/80/13... Just short of a 15/15 SS with a decent avg and R scored - I don't think that is replaceable off the waiver wire.

That said, I don't think I'd do it for Grady. Probably a fair deal, but I'd stick with Grady and the higher upside. I wouldn't fault you if you did take the deal though.

Good luck.

[dukefan]

ok i appreciate all the help



some guy offered me chipper jones and ichiro for sizemore..would you guys take that trade?

I don't have a very good 3b and ichiro would replace sizemore in the outfield.

[Dodgerbluesc]

some guy offered me chipper jones and ichiro for sizemore..would you guys take that trade?

I don't have a very good 3b and ichiro would replace sizemore in the outfield.

Unless you're 3B is Pedro Feliz and you've got 5 other guys who will hit you 30 HR and knock in 100 RBI I can't imagine doing that. Chipper is a very nice player still but he is too injury prone and that isn't getting better at his age, plus Ichiro kills your HR and RBI - two very importatant stats to get from your OF.