New to Fantasy Baseball, help me pick my keepers

[CubsFan]

The group of guys that i've been playing FF with for the past few years had a player dropout from their Keeper league. So i Inherited this guys team. Its my first draft and I've spent many hours prepping.

I need to submit my keepers by Friday

League rules:
-weekly lineup
-yahoo points scoring
-snake draft (i draft 4th)
Keeper rules
-you must keep 3 players, one must be pitcher, one must be a fielder
-a player can be a keeper 3 times
-keepers value at thier draft round + 3, keeping a keeper means you lose 1st round (keep 2 keepers you lose 1st and 2nd round, etc...)

My current team, with position and round drafted last year.
C Kurt Suzuki FA
1B Adrián González 9
2B Freddy Sánchez FA
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff 21
SS Orlando Cabrera 6
MI J.J. Hardy 7
OF Ichiro Suzuki 2nd time KEEPER
OF Vladimir Guerrero 1
OF Kosuke Fukudome 16
OF Carlos Gómez FA
Util Justin Morneau 2
SP Jake Peavy 1st time KEEPER
SP Jered Weaver 15
SP Aaron Cook FA
SP Todd Wellemeyer FA
RP Francisco Rodríguez 5
RP Billy Wagner 8
RP Brad Lidge 12
P Mike Mussina FA
P Troy Percival 17
BN Alexi Casilla FA
BN Aramis Ramírez 3
BN Hideki Matsui 4
BN Julio Lugo 19
BN Casey Kotchman 13
BN Jeff Francis 11
BN Kyle Lohse FA
BN Jeff Samardzija FA
DL Erik Bedard 1st time KEEPER

Since i have to keep at least one pitcher, i think it has to be Peavy. Since that will take my 1st round pick away, i don't think i want to keep ichiro (and lose a 2nd round), so looking at who i have left i need to pick two from Morneau, Vlad, and Aramis? I'm really not sold on Guerrero so i'd probably take morneau and aramis.

On the flip side I could keep Ichiro and then burn my keeper pitcher on K-ROD? (is it crazy to keep a RP?)

Or should i not be worried about losing my 1st and 2nd round picks and just stick to keeping Peavy, Ichiro and Morneau?

Any opinions is appreciated. WHIR (but i'm not sure if you want my advice since i'm new to Fantasy Baseball)

[Dodgerbluesc]

Yes it is crazy to keep a RP. Good question. You gotta keep Peavy there.

Ichiro shouldn't be up for consideration when you have Morneau and Aramis.

I don't really understand the whole losing a round + 3. What is the +3? So with Gonzalez, for instance, you would lose your 9th round pick and one of your first 3 picks by keeping him? What about Morneau who would cost you your 2nd round pick? Do you lose another top pick? I don't get it. Some clarification would help.

That said, I'd keep Peavy, Morneau and Aramis. But if it's the difference between Morneau and losing your 2nd pick and Gonzalez and losing your 9th pick, I'd go with Gonzalez.

[rails80]

Adrian Gonzalez in the 9th is a steal. Keeper.

Aramis in the 3rd is steep, but I guess worth it considering the drop-off in tier talent. Keeper.

Peavy is the only pitcher worth keeping which sucks because it costs a 1st rounder.

EDIT - I was thinking about this one on my way to work...lame, yes. First off, need some more input - what does the "-keepers value at thier draft round + 3, keeping a keeper means you lose 1st round (keep 2 keepers you lose 1st and 2nd round, etc...)" mean? I assume it means the first year you keep a player, you lose just that draft round. If you keep the same player 2x, you lose that round + 1? If this is true, read on...if not, let us know and I'll edit my response.

But here's what I came up with. Most teams will not keep their first, second, and third round picks in this format. By keeping Peavy, you lose a 1st and 2nd rounder (based on above scenario). You MUST toss him back into the pool.

This team is rather ugly, no offense but you've got keepers.

1. Keep A-Gon in the 9th, that one's easy. He's 3rd-4th round talent at a bargain price here.
2. Keep A-Ram in the 3rd. First time keeper, he's worth a 3rd rounder in most drafts anyway, especially with ARod's injury.
3. Keep Brad Lidge in the 12th. You're losing a 12th round pick, but you have to keep a P. May as well take a late round guy who will give you points in a few categories.

This will give you a 1st and 2nd round pick, skip the 3rd, but then you are picking from 4th-8th. There should be plenty of talent out there for you to build around.

[rupertoooo]

This is not a very good scenario for you. Do you have any idea on who may be available in your draft.

Gonzo is the only player on your team with any value

Peavy is not worth that 1st selection,TOSS HIM BACK
Ramirez is close, but is a little inflated as well

If you can possibly get some info on who is being tossed back in the draft I would go this route. There will be better offerings than Peavy in the 1st, no doubt.


Ramirez (Fair Value), Morneau offers fair value as well but would go with Ramirez due to his hot corner positioning.
Gonzo
Weaver (Offers far better value at 15 than Peavy at 1)

KEEP THAT 1ST ROUND PICK

[CubsFan]

Thanks for the opinions

When i say keepers value at draft +3, that means you lose the draft pick equal to where the player was drafted last year + 3. So for Gonzalez if i keep him, i lose the 12 round pick. If i keep a FA pickup i lose my last round pick. Now if i Keep a keeper the keeper values as my first round pick, if i keep two keepers i lose 1st and 2nd, if i keep all three of my keepers i lose 1st, 2nd, & 3rd. So there is a definate advantage to keeping non-keepers. Even aramis would value as a 6th rounder which i think is a good deal.

It seems like its better for me to hold onto my first 3 round picks. I'm going to do some investigation of who might be available. But i have to pour over the spreadsheets some more. But based on the discussions here i'm certain i'm keeping gonzalez