Ender wrote:Rowand switched from an extreme hitters park to an extreme pitchers park and from a great lineup to probably the worst in baseball so again not a great example. Nobody in this thread is expecting Youkilis to hit 29 HRs again either. They just think the R/RBI spike is because of his position in a good lineup. If Youkilis hits 29 HR again I think he'll be more valuable than Aramis, not near him in value. I think he'll hit around 20 and be just under Aramis in value. I also don't see any reason to expect 30 out of Aramis at this point so maybe that is part of it.
Yeah, and if Paul Bako hits 60 HR he'll be more valuable than Ryan Howard. We draft players on expected value, not what they would put up if you turned all their player attributes up and put the game on Rookie mode. Why would you mention upside for a 30 year old player but discount and possibility of upside for a 31 year old?
P.S. AT&T Park has a 100+ park factor, almost exactly the same as Citizen's Bank Park. Take that as you will.