Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

[DSheppard]

They are the same age, Youkilis has done it once and Ramirez has done it 7 times.

Ramirez.

[Big Pimpin]

I say ARam easy, but I don't really expect much out of Youk. I think ARam outhomers him by 10 or so and probably beats him by about 30 RBIs. I expect Runs to be close and ARam to probably hit 15 points higher.

I just think the real Youk is more like 2007 Youk than 2008 Youk. And three "Youk"s in one sentence has to be some kind of record.

[Neato Torpedo]

And three "Youk"s in one sentence has to be some kind of record.

Impossible. The 3 Youk sentence is a myth.

[DaShiz23]

Aramis goes off this year. I think D. Lee has a better year than his last 2 since his injury (not close to his monster year), Soriano should be Soriano, and Soto should improve slightly. Even with just half a year of Bradley, that should give Ramirez more protection than he has had in a while!
I like Youk's game quite a bit, but he hasn't been playing at last year's level, well, at all. I believe we saw his ceiling last year, and doubt we will see it again.

[horatio]

Impossible. The 3 Youk sentence is a myth.

I think Larry, Moe, and Curly might have something to say about that: "Youk, Youk, Youk".

[Ender]

And 25-26 HR is a baseline for Aramis' numbers, he could just as easily turn around and hit 35 HR and I'd peg the median at 29-31

And Youkilis can easily turn around and hit 29 again but I feel it is much safer to project 20. Ramirez has hit 26 and 27 the last two years and has hit 35+ only 2 times in his entire career, he is also a player that has been dinged up a lot in his career so struggled to play full seasons.

I don't mind someone picking Ramirez, heck I'd do it myself. I just don't see where this 'Ramirez blows him away' stuff comes from.

Also for the other person in the thread, Youkilis is 1 year younger.

Ramirez - June 1978 (born in DR so could easily be 77 or 76 too~)
Youkilis - March 1979

[Neato Torpedo]

And 25-26 HR is a baseline for Aramis' numbers, he could just as easily turn around and hit 35 HR and I'd peg the median at 29-31

And Youkilis can easily turn around and hit 29 again but I feel it is much safer to project 20. Ramirez has hit 26 and 27 the last two years and has hit 35+ only 2 times in his entire career, he is also a player that has been dinged up a lot in his career so struggled to play full seasons.

I don't mind someone picking Ramirez, heck I'd do it myself. I just don't see where this 'Ramirez blows him away' stuff comes from.

Also for the other person in the thread, Youkilis is 1 year younger.

Ramirez - June 1978 (born in DR so could easily be 77 or 76 too~)
Youkilis - March 1979

See, I'm repeating exactly what I said about Byrnes last year to people that drafted him ahead of Vlad, Dunn, etc. A player breaks out around age 30 and rides an assload of luck factors to a top 30 finish. Give me experience every time.

By the way, Aramis played 149 games last year and 157 in 2006. Youk has never topped 147 in his career.

[Ender]

See, I'm repeating exactly what I said about Byrnes last year to people that drafted him ahead of Vlad, Dunn, etc. A player breaks out around age 30 and rides an assload of luck factors to a top 30 finish. Give me experience every time.

By the way, Aramis played 149 games last year and 157 in 2006. Youk has never topped 147 in his career.

Well first off Byrnes got hurt last year so that is a terrible example. He also broke out in SB which is not an old man skill. Anyone who has watched Youkilis bat can see that he is a great hitter. The question really comes with how many HR he'll hit and where the R/RBI falls based on the lineup. Its not a fluke that he is a good hitter because he has been a good hitter his entire career. Not many players flirt with a .400 OBP every year and he is one of them.

The only breakout in his numbers is 10 extra HR and R/RBI from batting more middle of the order. Even if you pencil him in for 20 HR he comes really close to Aramis in expected value, if I thought Youkilis was going to hit 25 HR I'd have him over Aramis instead.

[Neato Torpedo]

Don't like the Byrnes example? Fine. How about Rowand?

2007 Aaron Rowand --- age 29, 612 AB, .309 AVG, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 105 R, 6 SB
2008 Kevin Youkilis --- age 29, 538 AB, .312 AVG, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 91 R, 3 SB

500 AB AVG for Rowand before 2007 --- .279 AVG, 16.1 HR, 62.9 RBI, 76.5 R, 11.7 SB
500 AB AVG for Youk before 2008 --- .280 AVG, 13.4 HR, 71.9 RBI, 84.5 R, 3.3 SB

Once again, though, Youk gets a bump in OBP and OPS leagues.

[Ender]

Rowand switched from an extreme hitters park to an extreme pitchers park and from a great lineup to probably the worst in baseball so again not a great example. Nobody in this thread is expecting Youkilis to hit 29 HRs again either. They just think the R/RBI spike is because of his position in a good lineup. If Youkilis hits 29 HR again I think he'll be more valuable than Aramis, not near him in value. I think he'll hit around 20 and be just under Aramis in value. I also don't see any reason to expect 30 out of Aramis at this point so maybe that is part of it.