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Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

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Re: Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

Postby Yoda » Thu Mar 12, 2009 11:34 am

I'd still take Aramis.
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Re: Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Thu Mar 12, 2009 2:53 pm

Please. Youk had a breakout season at age 29, and players that have a breakout at 29 usually don't maintain their success, especially those whose BB rates have been declining for years to the point that they have just set a career low in BB/K rate. He's a one hit wonder and I'd rank him in the Huff/Zim range. I'm predicting something like .290 AVG, 21 HR, 100 RBI, 85 R. That's about what I expect from Zim this year plus a few RBI and minus a couple HR, and Zim goes 3-5 rounds later. Youk is one year removed from being a late-20s replacement level 3B and people seem to be forgetting that. You don't see Huff getting all this hype.

Aramis, on the other hand, has had exactly one year with a sub-.900 OPS since joining the Cubs, which was '08's .898 mark. He's been in the league 2 1/2 times longer than Youk but is only one year older. Incidentally, last year he set a career high in BB rate, and tied his career high in BB/K. Injury worries are overrated since he played 149+ games in two of the last three years. I don't have the replacement level numbers on hand, but this is where I would say that even if Aramis did get injured, 130 games of Aramis plus 25 games of a replacement 3B drastically outproduces 155 games of Youk.

While Bay will most likely take over the cleanup spot at some point because he's clearly a better hitter, Aramis won't move anywhere out of the #4 spot, or maybe #3 if Lou decides to drop Soriano or Lee in the lineup. Youk will have Drew, Lowell, Varitek, and Lugo to drive him in, while Aramis will have Bradley, Soto, Fukudome, and Miles/Fontenot driving him in, maybe even Soriano and Lee.

Just for funsies:
2007 Aramis Ramirez --- 132 games, .310 AVG, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 72 runs
2008 Kevin Youkilis --- 145 games, .312 AVG, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 91 runs

Where's the significant difference in anything besides runs (which Aramis will almost certainly improve in, having Soto and Bradley driving him in)? This is without adding in replacement level production.

Aramis > Youk and it's not even close.
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Re: Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

Postby horatio » Thu Mar 12, 2009 3:01 pm

yeah for sure Aramis by a leap, in fact I think it's funny that Longoria is being drafted so much sooner than Aramis, but that's just me.

Only drawback with Aramis comes if you've got him in a H2H league and you make the playoffs and the Cubs are poised to make the playoffs too, I guess you could say that with just about any star player though who's managers might want to let them rest a bit before the playoffs start while you're trying to win your H2H championship.
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Re: Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

Postby Polar Bear » Thu Mar 12, 2009 3:38 pm

Aramis is the better 3rd baseman and if that was the position I was trying to fill I would go with that. Youk will be pretty consistent this year and he has 1B and 3B eligibility, but I would still go with Aramis.

Completely disagree with Zimmerman being anywhere near Youkilis. Until Zimmerman finishes a season without missing half of it, then maybe I will put him ahead of Youk. Until that happens I won't touch him unless he drops far enough to justify his pick.
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Re: Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

Postby Yoda » Thu Mar 12, 2009 3:49 pm

Well it really depends. If you are playing in a K or OBP league or AL Only then a case can be made for Youkilis.
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Re: Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 12, 2009 4:49 pm

Youk will have Drew, Lowell, Varitek, and Lugo to drive him in, while Aramis will have Bradley, Soto, Fukudome, and Miles/Fontenot driving him in, maybe even Soriano and Lee


So Soto and a bunch of scrubs for the 100 games that Bradley is on the DL?

Anyway it isn't a big gap at all and Youk has never been a replacement level player so stop exaggerating. Replacement level players don't carry a .380 OBP and .800+ OPS.

I don't see why Youk can't hit .290 and hit 20 HR this year and I don't see why you should expect much more than 25-26 HR out of Aramis given his career trends. Youk throws in 1-2 extra steals. So it basically comes down to R/RBI, Youk being able to play 1B and Aramis being a year older. They are neck and neck in my ratings right now.

Look at the 2 year average for them.

Aramis - 85 R, 26.5 HR, 106 RBI, 1 SB, .300 AVG
Youk - 88 R, 22.5 HR, 99 RBI, 3.5 SB, .300 AVG

Pretty darn close to even.
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Re: Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Mar 12, 2009 4:55 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:Just for funsies:
2007 Aramis Ramirez --- 132 games, .310 AVG, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 72 runs
2008 Kevin Youkilis --- 145 games, .312 AVG, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 91 runs

Where's the significant difference in anything besides runs (which Aramis will almost certainly improve in, having Soto and Bradley driving him in)? This is without adding in replacement level production.

Aramis > Youk and it's not even close.


Just going by the stats you posted say it is more than close I would say it favors Youkilis. The diffence in games equals out the HR and RBI for the most part but Youkilis still have more runs. You actual want to pin your hopes for more R in 2009 on an injury prone Bradley and a sophomore catcher Soto? And you are completely discounting the fact Youkilis will be hitting 4th this year. Meanwhile Rameriz's SLG% keeps dropping every year while Youkilis goes up. How can that not be close?
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Re: Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Thu Mar 12, 2009 5:46 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Neato Torpedo wrote:Just for funsies:
2007 Aramis Ramirez --- 132 games, .310 AVG, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 72 runs
2008 Kevin Youkilis --- 145 games, .312 AVG, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 91 runs

Where's the significant difference in anything besides runs (which Aramis will almost certainly improve in, having Soto and Bradley driving him in)? This is without adding in replacement level production.

Aramis > Youk and it's not even close.


Just going by the stats you posted say it is more than close I would say it favors Youkilis. The diffence in games equals out the HR and RBI for the most part but Youkilis still have more runs. You actual want to pin your hopes for more R in 2009 on an injury prone Bradley and a sophomore catcher Soto? And you are completely discounting the fact Youkilis will be hitting 4th this year. Meanwhile Rameriz's SLG% keeps dropping every year while Youkilis goes up. How can that not be close?

#1 - Like I said, Bay is a better hitter that Youk, easy, and he'll likely take Youk's spot in #4. Either that or Bay goes to #3 and Ortiz drops to #4. Both of them are better hitters.

#2 - I'm comparing an average Aramis season to Youk's best year. Yes, these stats play in Youk's favor if you're comparing the two seasons in a vacuum, but it's safer to predict an average season than a repeat of what is far and away the outlier, especially when the two players are the same age. It's like this:

2008 Cliff Lee --- 227 IP, 22 W, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K
2008 Brandon Webb --- 223 IP, 22 W, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K

And then show me a league where Lee is drafted ahead of Webb. Track record of success beats middle-aged breakout year 10 times out of 10. Besides, I specifically said "just for funsies", please make a note of that in the future. :-b
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Re: Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Thu Mar 12, 2009 5:57 pm

Ender wrote:Anyway it isn't a big gap at all and Youk has never been a replacement level player so stop exaggerating. Replacement level players don't carry a .380 OBP and .800+ OPS.

I don't see why Youk can't hit .290 and hit 20 HR this year and I don't see why you should expect much more than 25-26 HR out of Aramis given his career trends. Youk throws in 1-2 extra steals. So it basically comes down to R/RBI, Youk being able to play 1B and Aramis being a year older. They are neck and neck in my ratings right now.

I meant replacement fantasy-wise. If you were in an OBP/OPS league than Youk was an alright back-end starting 3B, but he was bench/backup/WW material in standard leagues.

And 25-26 HR is a baseline for Aramis' numbers, he could just as easily turn around and hit 35 HR and I'd peg the median at 29-31. He's 31 for god's sake, not 37.
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Re: Aramis Ramirez or Kevin Youkilis ?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Mar 12, 2009 7:26 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:#1 - Like I said, Bay is a better hitter that Youk, easy, and he'll likely take Youk's spot in #4. Either that or Bay goes to #3 and Ortiz drops to #4. Both of them are better hitters.

#2 - I'm comparing an average Aramis season to Youk's best year. Yes, these stats play in Youk's favor if you're comparing the two seasons in a vacuum, but it's safer to predict an average season than a repeat of what is far and away the outlier, especially when the two players are the same age. It's like this:

2008 Cliff Lee --- 227 IP, 22 W, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K
2008 Brandon Webb --- 223 IP, 22 W, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K

And then show me a league where Lee is drafted ahead of Webb. Track record of success beats middle-aged breakout year 10 times out of 10. Besides, I specifically said "just for funsies", please make a note of that in the future. :-b


1. Some would say the player with the higher OBP and less K's is the better hitter and would be better suited to hit higher in the order

2. Just for "funsies" let's compare their 162 game career averages.

Aramis Ramirez --- .289 AVG, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 84 runs
Kevin Youkilis --- .289 AVG, 19 HR, 92 RBI, 95 runs

That's close enough for me to think about it when I've got one player who is going to be hitting in a better spot in the lineup and when his SLG% keeps going up while the other player's SLG% keeps going down.
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