I am in a 30 team, 50 player per team (1500 players total on rosters) DMB league. The projections are done by Dan Symbroski (baseballthinkfactory.org). This league is not based on fantasy stats, it's based on the afore-mentioned projections.
I have Joey Votto signed for 5-7 years. (projected to hit .280 - .353 - .490)
I could be getting Roy Oswalt for 2 years. (projected to pitch 3.61 in 207.0 innings)
My 1B scenario is as follows: Votto Dan Johnson for 1 year(who is projected to hit .269 - .364 - .458) Daryle Ward for 1 year (projected to hit .271 - .359 - .436)
And in my minors... Lars Anderson for 7-9 years Kyle Blanks for 7-9 years
I also have some big bats in my lineup (milton bradley, nelson cruz, jason botts (.272 - .364 - .490)
My SP scenario is as follows: Curt Schilling for 1 year (projected 4.10 - 112.0) Kyle Lohse for 1 year (projected 4.37 - 177.0) Jeremy Bonderman for 3 years (projected 4.45 - 137.7) Joe Blanton for 3 year (projected 4.53 - 176.7) Eric Hacker for 1 year (projected 4.81 - 131.0) Jason Marquis for 2-3 years (projected 5.03 - 161.0)
And in my minors... Zach Duke for 3-4 years (projected 5.27 - 148.7) Jeremy Jeffress for 7-10 years Kason Gabbard for 5 years Matt Chico for 6 years Radhames Liz for 6 years Mark Rogers for 6 years
I have a VERY strong pen, 5 guys with ERA under 3.8
I think you should go with Votto for 5-7. Good amount of time to have his bat on your team and your pen sounds solid enough to make your pitching ok to compete
if you want to bank on Anderson or Blank stepping in next year, or you being able to pull something out of the air to fill for Votto next year if those 2 don't make it then i say do it... this year is going to basically be a wash with Oswalt probably doing more for your team, but what about the last 4-6 years you would have had Votto... Like i say with the settings you have in this league your not really gonna know if you had a good deal or bad deal til at least next year when you have to fill your 1B slot... i personally say do it play for this year is always my motto so take a chance and add a real nice SP to your rotation and worry about the 1B option next year...