Mark Reynolds is basically Adam Dunn minus 10 HR? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Mark Reynolds is basically Adam Dunn minus 10 HR?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Mark Reynolds is basically Adam Dunn minus 10 HR?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Tue Mar 10, 2009 11:47 am

Nope, the D'Backs are going to give him a full season, without doubt. Last year, with the same squad plus Dunn complicating matters in the 2nd half, Reynolds still got 539 AB. Tracy only played 2 games at 3B. And to cement his fulltime position even further, they tried Reynolds out at 2B in practice late in the season to make absolutely sure he got AB if they wanted to start Dunn and Tracy.

It's not unreasonable that he'll reproduce last year's stats, which would make him around the 11th-14th ranked 3B in the game. Hell, if he hits .250/95/32/105/11 he'll be a top 7 3B, and those numbers are well within reach, considering Reynolds is 25 years old. However, there's a distinct chance he could bust and crash completely and struggle to reach the Mendoza line for most of the year, which is a risk you don't have with Dunn. That's why I wouldn't be comfortable with him as a starting 3B. I drafted him in the 16th round in the ECL as my CI, but I have Headley and Mora as contingency plans.

CHONE, Marcel, ZIPS, and Oliver are all predicting an AVG between .249 and .260, by the way. Also, it seems like Reynolds is one of those players that can sustain a high BABIP, having a .360 BABIP in about 1450 AB between MiLB and MLB since 2006.
Image

Rocinante2: you know
Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team
ofanrex: go on
Rocinante2: i'm done
Rocinante2: lmao

Play Brushback Baseball! (we need more people)
Neato Torpedo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerWeb Supporter
Posts: 8618
Joined: 4 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: we don't burn gasoline, we burn our dreams

Re: Mark Reynolds is basically Adam Dunn minus 10 HR?

Postby Yoda » Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:08 pm

Tracy was hurt most of the year and so was Byrnes. Upton missed some time as well.

I also don't think .360 BABIP is sustainable.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Re: Mark Reynolds is basically Adam Dunn minus 10 HR?

Postby Ender » Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:22 pm

There is absolutely no way he sustains a .360 BABIP as a big slow guy who hits fly balls.

Personally my money is on him riding the bench part time by the second half. That team is going to be in the playoff hunt and they have some depth and that .318 OBP with a .347 BABIP against righties is going to find him on the bench for some games.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Mark Reynolds is basically Adam Dunn minus 10 HR?

Postby djxskillz » Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:49 pm

well i got zimmerman as my main 3b so if things fall apart with him, it wont hurt that bad.
djxskillz
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 791
Joined: 22 Nov 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Mark Reynolds is basically Adam Dunn minus 10 HR?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Tue Mar 10, 2009 1:02 pm

Yoda wrote:Tracy was hurt most of the year and so was Byrnes. Upton missed some time as well.

I also don't think .360 BABIP is sustainable.

Tracy was hurt during the first half, before Dunn came to play. And when Dunn did play 1B, it was always Tracy that sat. It's pretty clear to me that Tracy is the odd man out should Jackson have to slide in to 1B occasionally to make room for Byrnes.

And maybe not .360, but given his track record, reproducing his .329 mark of last year shouldn't be a huge problem.
Image

Rocinante2: you know
Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team
ofanrex: go on
Rocinante2: i'm done
Rocinante2: lmao

Play Brushback Baseball! (we need more people)
Neato Torpedo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerWeb Supporter
Posts: 8618
Joined: 4 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: we don't burn gasoline, we burn our dreams

Re: Mark Reynolds is basically Adam Dunn minus 10 HR?

Postby Yoda » Tue Mar 10, 2009 1:26 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:
Yoda wrote:Tracy was hurt most of the year and so was Byrnes. Upton missed some time as well.

I also don't think .360 BABIP is sustainable.

Tracy was hurt during the first half, before Dunn came to play. And when Dunn did play 1B, it was always Tracy that sat. It's pretty clear to me that Tracy is the odd man out should Jackson have to slide in to 1B occasionally to make room for Byrnes.

And maybe not .360, but given his track record, reproducing his .329 mark of last year shouldn't be a huge problem.


I still think his downside is significant loss of playing time. If he hits like he did in post ASB: .226 AVG, .303 OBP, .409 SLG and everyone is healthy then I don't see how he will be a full time starter. And I like him a lot.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21344
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Re: Mark Reynolds is basically Adam Dunn minus 10 HR?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:23 pm

Yeah, he's a real hit or miss guy. He has a chance of putting up legit top 7 3B numbers but also has a chance of crashing and burning completely. Like I said, if you're going to draft him, have a solid contingency plan.
Image

Rocinante2: you know
Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team
ofanrex: go on
Rocinante2: i'm done
Rocinante2: lmao

Play Brushback Baseball! (we need more people)
Neato Torpedo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerWeb Supporter
Posts: 8618
Joined: 4 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: we don't burn gasoline, we burn our dreams

Re: Mark Reynolds is basically Adam Dunn minus 10 HR?

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Tue Mar 10, 2009 7:13 pm

damn so he's more like a dan uggla playing 3B?
Image
BitterDodgerFan
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 6508
Joined: 18 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: City of Grigori

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact