Our keeper draft is imminent ... I have 12th pick (so i get to double dip). Wondering if you could take a look at my situation and suggest a strategy:
Already kept:
Pujols (1B) Soriano (OF) -- yes, i was tempted by granderson and may yet trade for him Rollins (SS) Sizemore (OF) Cabrera (3B/1B) Peavy (SP)
Guys I will likely choose my back-to-back picks from: Papelbon, Ellsbury, Alexei Ramirez, Corey Hart, Garret Atkins, Adam Dunn, Stephen Drew, Chris Davis, Dan Uggla, Joe Nathan, Billingsley, Huff, Bruce, K-Rod, Michael Young, Figgins, Vernon Wells, Doumit, Cano, Abreu, Derrek Lee, Oswalt, Shields, Soria, Milledge, Burnett, Wieters, Gallardo, Torii Hunter, Dice-K, Volquez, Delgado, Broxton...
Those are sort of the guys that will be around ... which two would you recommend?
I will be minority here, but I like Alexei/Davis. I love your set of keepers, and these two guys could have monster years, and have a chance to actually push two of your keepers out next season. They could also make great trading chips if the go OFF!
I like Alexei Ramirez a lot. Not only does he have great upside, but you would be all set at the scarce positions (2B, SS and 3B). That will give you a lot more flexibility later in the draft and make it easier for you to find the bargains instead of having to reach for guys. If Alexei is still there, I would definitely take him.
I think your other pick should be a SP. If you pass up on pitchers with your first 2 picks, you are going to have to wait 22 picks before it's your turn again, and the quality of available pitchers will drop dramatically. I think Oswalt, Shields and Billingsly would all be good values in your position. In a keeper league I would take Shields or Billingsly over Oswalt (if these 3 guys are gone, though, I'd pass on the SP idea).
If you decide against a SP, or if Alexei is already taken, You couldn't go too wrong with Hart or Ellsbury. Both are solid players and good values with what will essentially be the 85th pick. The only downside is you already have 2 good OF's, and it seems a bit early to be taking a 3rd.
The "dark horse" picks would be Chris Davis or Jay Bruce. They aren't as safe a pick as Hart or Ellsbury, but it isn't a huge stretch at all to take these guys in your spot. They both have some risk since they're young, but they also both have the potential to be studs for many years to come.
I don't think you can consider taking a closer. It's probably just about the right time to start considering Pappelbon or Nathan (you can't even think about taking anybody other than one of those two guys), but in your situation I don't think it's the right move. There's too many good positional players and SP's still available for you to start the "closer run," especially when you will have to wait 22 picks until it's your turn again.
For various reasons, I don't like any of the other guys on the list....at least not for your team and in your draft position. Some play positions you already have filled, some have major flaws (i.e. Dunn's batting average) and others are just too much of a stretch at this point in the draft. Go ahead and consider those guys if they are still around for your 2nd set of picks...but not for rounds #1 and #2.
So, after all that, here is my short answer:
Plan A: take Alexei Ramirez and either Shields or Billingsly.
Plan B: If some or all of those guys are taken, Oswalt, Hart and Ellsbury are all good options
Wild Card: If you want to swing for the fences, Chris Davis and Jay Bruce are high risk/high reward prospects that are viable options.
jmurphy_j wrote: So, after all that, here is my short answer:
Plan A: take Alexei Ramirez and either Shields or Billingsly.
Plan B: If some or all of those guys are taken, Oswalt, Hart and Ellsbury are all good options
Wild Card: If you want to swing for the fences, Chris Davis and Jay Bruce are high risk/high reward prospects that are viable options.
I have to agree with this assessment. Alexei Ramirez will give you some other positions give ya 2B/3B/SS where you can move him around and adjust depending on the situation you might get into in the league (Injuries). And since you don't have any pitchers, you might as well start that out, Shields, Billingsley and Oswalts are safe and awesome pitcher picks.
Anyone care to project out Alexei Ramirez and Chris Davis based on the hit categories I listed above?
Also, would I be wise to give Bobby Abreu some consideration? I am tempted slightly because he is essentially a great asset for R, 1B, 2B, RBI, SB, and BB ... he also won't hurt at HR and AVG too much. Anyone think much of him in 09?
Lastly, I am tempted by Ellsbury for his R, SB, and potential for triples (sometimes 1-2 triples for the week will win the category). But he seems limited in BB, AVG, 2B and HR...
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by sigriffey » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:18 am 
