Risky Ervin or risky Josh Johnson?

[Curtis Pride]

keeper league with 6 keepers - based on round drafted last year.

My keeper choices were no-brainers until about 2 days ago when the Ervin Santana news came out. Now Will Carroll of BP is saying that Ervin has a "small" tear in his labrum and the Angels are going to "wait and see". http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1197

But I have to get my keepers in less than a week from now.

So other than Ervin (who would cost me an 18th round pick and can be kept in '10 in the 15th and '11 in the 12th, my options are:

Jhonny Peralta in the 10th round (given keeper inflation, he'd probably go in the 7th round in my league - which as 2b/SS/MI spots.)

Josh Johnson in the 15th round.

So would you bite the bullet and keep Ervin or go with Peralta or Johnson?

I'm heavily leaning toward Johnson. "tears" in labrums - no matter how small are things that will eventually cause a lost year.

[smoovethug]

I'm sorry but I'd still have to go Ervin and hope for the best.

[Curtis Pride]

Top.

Johnson continues to mow down hitters and is in line for a monster season.

Ervin has yet to pitch and has a tear/strain in his elbow ligament.

They cost about the same and I realize if I cut both Ervin would get drafted much sooner, but everything in me is telling me to avoid the risk and keep Johnson over Ervin.

[JoshDJays]

I would take the risk on Ervin, his upside is high.

[myroto83]

yeah with big Erv you can still get insane value if he comes back, and can still try to pick up Josh Johnson in the draft.