mtarail wrote:Don't know Milton Bradley's ranking, but I'm seeing him getting drafted around the 15th round or later in 5x5 drafts. Yes, we all know about the reasons to be concerned about Milton, but he has proven that he can produce like a top 10 OF when healthy. Well worth the low risk of such a late pick.
Same goes for Bedard. Here was a guy that was drafted in the 3rd round last year. Early accounts are that he's healthy and throwing fine. I'm seeing him go in the 14th round and later in drafts. Another great value pick.
I agree with you on Bedard, but I think Milton Bradley is going about where he should be.
A couple of points about Bradley:
1) His health is an even bigger concern than most realize.
2004 was the only year in which he has had more than 500 ABs. As a DH in Texas he couldn't even stay healthy. Playing OF in Chicago isn't going to help matters.
2) He's not very well established for a player his age.
He has only hit over .300 in 3 years. His BABIP those years: .378 in 2003, .329 in 2007, and .396 in 2008 (tops in the league). As a LD hitter you'd expect his BABIP to be a bit higher than most, but a .396 BABIP isn't sustainable.
3) 2008 is the only year he has hit over 20 HRs.
Though he hit 19 HRs in 2004 (every other year hes been under 15). Clearly this is partially due to health problems but not completely IMO. Last year his HR/FB rate was 21.2% -- only a few players were higher (Howard and Dunn were two of them). He'll have a hard time repeating that.
Bradley is in his prime right now so you'd expect these numbers to be a bit higher for him, but man, they're going to be tough to repeat.
Don't get me wrong, he's a good hitter, but not a great one. He uses a good approach at the plate but he also strikes out a lot and won't be a great asset in any category. You can duplicate the numbers he'll give you by streaming hot players off the WW and, by doing so, won't have him clogging a DL spot half the year.
You can do better than Bradley in your drafts. Grab someone with more upside.