Whether a guy is projected to get 38 or 43 saves doesn't really matter to me. Saves are almost as fickle to project as wins are, IMHO. I want the better pitcher as long as the number of saves will be close. Mo has had a sub 2 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP 3 of the last 4 years while also maintaining better than 9K/9.
Valverde doesn't have a big advantage in K's...if one at all. He also has never had a sub 2 ERA or a sub 1 WHIP. In fact he's only been sub 3 ERA 2 of the last 4 years. I'll take the consistancy that Mo has across all relevant categories, over the chance that Valverde puts up 45 saves again.
J35J wrote:Whether a guy is projected to get 38 or 43 saves doesn't really matter to me. Saves are almost as fickle to project as wins are, IMHO. I want the better pitcher as long as the number of saves will be close. Mo has had a sub 2 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP 3 of the last 4 years while also maintaining better than 9K/9.
Valverde doesn't have a big advantage in K's...if one at all. He also has never had a sub 2 ERA or a sub 1 WHIP. In fact he's only been sub 3 ERA 2 of the last 4 years. I'll take the consistancy that Mo has across all relevant categories, over the chance that Valverde puts up 45 saves again.
You want to talk about fickle stats then you should be talking about WHIP & ERA for closers...one bad outing can see there numbers inflated big time. Valverde had a couple horrible outing last year but those don't bother me much.
For my closer I want a guy that gets saves and the opportunites and K's... Valverde has only 6 less opps yet MO pitched in 55 more games...that should tell you something right there.
And Valverde has a much better K/9 than Mo does, I pointed that out a few posts up, it's almost 2 more per 9 which is huge for a closer.
In case you missed it...
Let's take a further look at MO over his last 3 years, which have been anything but fantastic. 194 GP, 103 -111 SVO (93%), 217 IP, 2.12 ERA and 206 K's which equates to 8.5Ks/9IP
Valverde L2 seasons when he took on a FT closer role... 139 GP, 91-105 (87%), 136.1 IP, 3.03 ERA and 161 K's which equates to 10.6Ks/9IP
J35J wrote:Whether a guy is projected to get 38 or 43 saves doesn't really matter to me. Saves are almost as fickle to project as wins are, IMHO. I want the better pitcher as long as the number of saves will be close. Mo has had a sub 2 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP 3 of the last 4 years while also maintaining better than 9K/9.
Valverde doesn't have a big advantage in K's...if one at all. He also has never had a sub 2 ERA or a sub 1 WHIP. In fact he's only been sub 3 ERA 2 of the last 4 years. I'll take the consistancy that Mo has across all relevant categories, over the chance that Valverde puts up 45 saves again.
You want to talk about fickle stats then you should be talking about WHIP & ERA for closers...one bad outing can see there numbers inflated big time. Valverde had a couple horrible outing last year but those don't bother me much.
For my closer I want a guy that gets saves and the opportunites and K's... Valverde has only 6 less opps yet MO pitched in 55 more games...that should tell you something right there.
And Valverde has a much better K/9 than Mo does, I pointed that out a few posts up, it's almost 2 more per 9 which is huge for a closer.
In case you missed it...
Let's take a further look at MO over his last 3 years, which have been anything but fantastic. 194 GP, 103 -111 SVO (93%), 217 IP, 2.12 ERA and 206 K's which equates to 8.5Ks/9IP
Valverde L2 seasons when he took on a FT closer role... 139 GP, 91-105 (87%), 136.1 IP, 3.03 ERA and 161 K's which equates to 10.6Ks/9IP
Good luck trying to predict Save opportunities. That's harder than predicting W's.
And just because Valverde has a higher K rate doesn't make him the better pitcher. That is ridiculous.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
J35J wrote:Whether a guy is projected to get 38 or 43 saves doesn't really matter to me. Saves are almost as fickle to project as wins are, IMHO. I want the better pitcher as long as the number of saves will be close. Mo has had a sub 2 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP 3 of the last 4 years while also maintaining better than 9K/9.
Valverde doesn't have a big advantage in K's...if one at all. He also has never had a sub 2 ERA or a sub 1 WHIP. In fact he's only been sub 3 ERA 2 of the last 4 years. I'll take the consistancy that Mo has across all relevant categories, over the chance that Valverde puts up 45 saves again.
You want to talk about fickle stats then you should be talking about WHIP & ERA for closers...one bad outing can see there numbers inflated big time. Valverde had a couple horrible outing last year but those don't bother me much.
For my closer I want a guy that gets saves and the opportunites and K's... Valverde has only 6 less opps yet MO pitched in 55 more games...that should tell you something right there.
And Valverde has a much better K/9 than Mo does, I pointed that out a few posts up, it's almost 2 more per 9 which is huge for a closer.
In case you missed it...
Let's take a further look at MO over his last 3 years, which have been anything but fantastic. 194 GP, 103 -111 SVO (93%), 217 IP, 2.12 ERA and 206 K's which equates to 8.5Ks/9IP
Valverde L2 seasons when he took on a FT closer role... 139 GP, 91-105 (87%), 136.1 IP, 3.03 ERA and 161 K's which equates to 10.6Ks/9IP
Good luck trying to predict Save opportunities. That's harder than predicting W's.
And just because Valverde has a higher K rate doesn't make him the better pitcher. That is ridiculous.
Thanks :rollseyes: how bout MO hasn't had 40 in any of the L3 years whereas V has had 54 & 51 ...doesn't take a rocket scientist to see a trend/pattern here. MO is getting old, save opps are down, his K's are down and although his ERA & WHIP remain pretty consistent I'm going to go for upside.
More saves and K's makes him the better closer, while Mo is a safe pick I'm rolling with the fireballing V
Mo is 6th or 7th on my list, behind Lidge, V and possibly Soria (doubtful but possible)
Can't wait for the bump come September one way or the other
Yoda wrote: Good luck trying to predict Save opportunities. That's harder than predicting W's.
And just because Valverde has a higher K rate doesn't make him the better pitcher. That is ridiculous.
Thanks :rollseyes: how bout MO hasn't had 40 in any of the L3 years whereas V has had 54 & 51 ...doesn't take a rocket scientist to see a trend/pattern here. MO is getting old, save opps are down, his K's are down and although his ERA & WHIP remain pretty consistent I'm going to go for upside.
Mo is 6th or 7th on my list, behind Lidge, V and possibly Soria (doubtful but possible)
Can't wait for the bump come September one way or the other
Sorry but the marginal advantage Valverde has in SV/K is nothing compared to the significant advantage that Mo has in ERA/WHIP. Valverde is a nice pitcher but guys like him flame out faster than you can blink.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Rivera and his 8.59 per 9 for the last few years just isn't very appealing to me. Soria is real solid and was also considered here. He's got that Bryan Harvey saving games thing going...at least last year.
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by J35J » Tue Mar 10, 2009 10:08 am 
