Hey all - Im in the midst of drafts both fast and slow, and one thing im noticing is the distinct lack of players who can provide steals, while still producing in other categories beyond the first few rounds. Am I the only one seeing this? Am I just too picky? There's people like Jroll, Reyes, Arod (now out for 6-9 weeks or some such), SIzemore --- these are all first rounders obviously. Ichiro can still hit and steal...Im sure im leaving out some big names, but I've been noticing that most steals are coming from late round guys with 10-20 steals (i.e. Span, Theriot)...
Maybe im just rambling, and maybe I'm just coming off as uninformed, but if any of you also have encountered this and have any suggestions of strategies feel free to lay them out. Who are the players who can provide steals that also provide good value in the other 4 offensive categories.
Steals are easier to pick up than HR mid season so I don't generally worry about it all that much. Load up on 5-20 SB guys and you don't need some big pure SB player.
If you really are worried about it just grab a Gomez or Taveras type late and only play them against bad catchers or something.
In the recently concluded ECL draft, I found a LOT of late options for SBs, including some with multi-category contributions, including Dickerson, Rasmus, Gardner, Josh Anderson, Pie, Morgan, and Fred Lewis were jsut a few.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
This is something I learned last year concerning steals.
Too many times players focus on the really big numbers. Reyes, Han-Ram, Sizemore are all guys who have the potential to at least steal 40 bases. Many times people draft one of these guys and then put steals on the back burner while trying to build up other categories. If you can get those guys then great, but if you pick later then most likely those guys will already be gone.
My personal strategy is to draft guys that can at least steal 10 bases, if they can steal 20 then even better. but these guys can typically steal bases and not kill your average or OBP. (Corey Hart being an exception). If you have a bunch of guys who can steal 10-20 bases then you will be tough to beat in steals. Some guys you can target that you don't have to sacrifice AVG on are: Matt Kemp, Pedroia, Markakis, O. Cabrera, Jeter, Theriot, Victorino, Kinsler, Rios, McLouth, and Abreu.
Those are some names that are sprinkled throughout the draft and there are plenty more. But these guys are solid players that don't kill you in other categories.
Ender has a good point too. Get a guy like Taveras and use him when you need him, but be prepared to see your AVG and OBP plummet.
I agree with you, Polar Bear. As I look at every pick, I try to find a guy that can give me 5-10 SBs, in addition to getting a few of those top level 4/5 cat guys. You do that and you don't have to pick a Bourn.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
Denard Span? will he get regular playing time in Minnesota? he has had.. 06AA-23 SB, 07AAA- 25 SB, 08AAA- 15(40 games), 08Twins- 18(93 games). maybe in a full season of regular playing time he could have 30+? i wouldnt count on power from high though.
Shin Soo Choo? full time LF for Cleveland? 06AAA- 25, 07AAA- 10 SB(59 games). maybe he goes 15+ SB with 15+ HR?
Ben Fransisco? full time RF for Cleveland? 06AAA- 25, 07AAA- 22. could he go 15/15 or even 20/20? (06 in AAA he went 17/25)
Coco Crisp? regular CF leadoff for KC. he should be able to have 30+ SB, and maybe double digit HR?
Felipe Lopez. 2B for Arizona. his numbers at Chase field are impressive. he could have 20+ SB with double digit power aswell.
Randy Winn? he could steal 15-20 with 10+ HR.
Rajai Davis. i dont think he is starting in Oakland, but even coming off the bench could have 20-30 SB. maybe have him on your bench and watch for when he starts for Oakland? i wouldnt count on power from high though.
the biggest thing here is to determine who can get you SB. almost all SB come from either OF's or 2B/SS. Only Russell Martin, David Wright,Chone Figgins are good bets to crack 15+ SB from 1B/3B/C. When you guys post that guys like Gardner,Pie,Josh Anderson can get you SB value cheap and late, thats only if they have a guaranteed starting job. these guys aren't going to really help. I'm a huge believer in drafting power/speed guys early. focus in the 1st round getting one of the 3 SS or guys like wright,grady or braun. grab ian kinsler or utley if you can. having a middle infield of Reyes and Kinsler help you start getting great SB and still having some power. you can draft power later at the corner infield spots. so i target the following guys early who are speed and power.
2B-Utley, Kinsler, BPhil,Alexei,Pedroia,Roberts(he has less power obviously, but top SB numbers for the position)
and you can target the SB with less power OF like Crawford,ichiro,Ellsbury if you happened to get a big power speed bat, think 30+hr with an earlier pick.
As most people said already, it's much better to spread out your steals across the roster than banking on a few guys. The problem is, when you end up with a guy like Crawford who goes from 50 to 25, then you are really screwed because most of his value was tied to those steals. Whereas if you get a guy who goes from 20 to 10, the hit isn't nearly as bad.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Finally Ellsbury gets a mention. Where does he fit into this conversation.....rookie who hit only 9 HR. Does he have the potential to bump that up to 15 this season? Can he repeat his big SB total? And where does he get drafted? Not to hijack for Ellsbury but he is intriguing because he doesnt really seem to fit into either set of players, neither 5 cat guy nor does he seem to kill other categories to get you the 50 SB.
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by Invictus » Sun Mar 08, 2009 6:08 pm 
