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What do you think of these categories? 6x6

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What do you think of these categories? 6x6

Postby Trojan Pony » Sun Mar 08, 2009 4:07 am

I'm not really interested in the "keep it simple" or "I'm a traditionalist" arguments... I've heard them all before... I really just want to know if this is a GOOD, balanced scoring system?

Rotisserie

Hitting: R, XBH, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS
Pitching: W, SV, HD, K, ERA, WHIP

My main goal here is to incorporate ALL types of MLB players, especially ones who are typically undervalued in fantasy, without dramatically altering the current values of players. I feel like XBH (extra base hits) lends more value to gap hitters who don't necessarily have HR power and speed guys who don't necessarily swipe a lot of bags. It would give a little more love to doubles/triples guys. But to maintain most of the traditional value of power hitters, I added OPS as a 6th cat to make up for the loss of HR. The OBP half of OPS would also give some more value to guys with good plate discipline.

And then Holds is pretty self-explanatory... I like the idea of middle relievers having some real value, and I feel like Holds are spread out enough that Closers will still be more valuable than the vast majority of Holds guys, which I like.

Do you see any potential holes with this system?
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Re: What do you think of these categories? 6x6

Postby Matthias » Sun Mar 08, 2009 3:06 pm

Two definite holes and one thing that feels funny.

First hole is pitching is unbalanced. You don't provide a reason to draft a starter, or at least very little. Wins are ok and K's obviously favor the big guys, but Saves and Holds are reliever-only (worthwhile to note that they also can get vulture wins) and ERA and WHIP is strongly in favor of relievers. I would do Saves + Holds and then substitute in QS if possible.

Second hole is that you should put in SB-CS instead of just SB. Most of the sites I've seen now give this as an option and stolen bases are only valuable if you don't get caught too much doing them. So there's no reason not to use something better as long as you can.

The thing that feels funny is just doing xBH as just a counting stat. It feels like you should use Total Bases instead. I realize that it gets captured somewhat in OPS (OBP + SLG) but it just feels weird to say that a double is equal to a home run. It might be ok; you do have Runs and RBIs which someone hitting a HR will benefit from that someone hitting a double won't necessarily, but as I said it just feels funny.

If all of your stats are supported at lastplayerpicked.com you should input your system and see what your player valuations look like. If you don't it, then tweak it some.
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Re: What do you think of these categories? 6x6

Postby Pogotheostrich » Sun Mar 08, 2009 3:13 pm

I agree TB > XBH
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Re: What do you think of these categories? 6x6

Postby Trojan Pony » Mon Mar 09, 2009 1:47 pm

Hmm... Thanks for the feedback... I guess part of me likes the idea of a double or triple being worth the same as a HR, because home runs automatically get you a Run and RBI as it is and help a lot in OPS, and doubles/triples guys are a little undervalued in fantasy IMO. What would be the difference in player value with TB vs. XBH? Like which guys would be more/less valuable? Unfortunately Last Player Picked doesn't have XBH as an option. I actually used TB instead when I was checking it out, so I'm curious what the difference would be...

Isn't SB vs. Net SB more a matter of personal preference? Don't see how that's a "hole" per se... But I will consider it.

I do agree about starting pitching being devalued too much... in that department I'm definitely going to tweak things a bit...
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Re: What do you think of these categories? 6x6

Postby Matthias » Mon Mar 09, 2009 8:58 pm

If you're trying to properly value players especially those "undervalued in fantasy" then you should definitely use Net Steals. The value of a steal depends up on the situation, but as a general rule, it's only worthwhile if you successfully steal two times for every one time that you get caught. There are players who steal because they have the green light and then there are players who steal because it's the right time to do so (Ichiro went about 2 1/2 years without getting caught if I remember right). So if you're really trying for a proper valuation, you should penalize for those guys who are just running wantonly.

As far as guys who would be more valuable/less valuable with TB vs xBH, it's really a marginal distinction. All you're doing is giving 4 pts for a HR vs 2 pts for a double.... I guess guys like Mike Lowell who hit a ton of doubles would lose ground to someone like Ryan Howard. All in all, it's not a huge difference, just a difference at the margins.
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Re: What do you think of these categories? 6x6

Postby Trojan Pony » Tue Mar 10, 2009 6:50 am

What about this...

7x7

R, XBH, RBI, Net SB, BB, AVG, OPS

W, QS, SV, HD, K, ERA, WHIP
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Re: What do you think of these categories? 6x6

Postby Matthias » Tue Mar 10, 2009 8:19 am

Too slugger-friendly on the hitter's side; closer but still favors relievers on the pitcher's side.

You can't just add SV + HD together into one stat?
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Re: What do you think of these categories? 6x6

Postby Trojan Pony » Tue Mar 10, 2009 10:08 am

I dunno, I feel like having Wins, Strikeouts, AND Quality Starts is plenty of incentive to play SP's. Also, for what it's worth, the rosters are set up with 5 SP / 4 RP / 3 P. I think SV+HD would lead to relievers having too little value. It would also close the gap between closers and middle relievers, which I don't really like.

Too slugger heavy? Aren't Runs, Net SB, and Walks less slugger-friendly? And XBH is a little less "slugger" friendly than just HR... If anything, I think the batting cats I have now are LESS slugger-friendly than the typical roto league. No?
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Re: What do you think of these categories? 6x6

Postby Matthias » Tue Mar 10, 2009 6:33 pm

Trojan Pony wrote:I dunno, I feel like having Wins, Strikeouts, AND Quality Starts is plenty of incentive to play SP's. Also, for what it's worth, the rosters are set up with 5 SP / 4 RP / 3 P. I think SV+HD would lead to relievers having too little value. It would also close the gap between closers and middle relievers, which I don't really like.

1) Combining Saves & Holds versus having them as stand-alone categories increases the value of closers relative to MR's. Combining them versus not having Holds at all pushes them together.

Here's why.
If you have them as separate categories, then a dominant MR guy is as valuable as a dominant closer because he will provide the same relative advantage. He will help you win 1 category and help in others.

If you have them as combined categories, then a dominant MR guy is less valuable than a dominant closer. The top closers get about 40-50 saves a year. The top MR's only get around 30 or so holds.

So say you have 2 players: one a MR guy, another a closer. They have the same K's, same innings, same ERA, same WHIP. The closer closes 30 games; the MR guy gets 30 holds. If you have the categories counted separate, the MR guy is more valuable because he will be the #1 (or #2, maybe) for Holds in the entire league and go a decent way to winning you that category while the closer will make you competitive in Saves but won't provide a dominant position and then they're a wash with everything else. Once you combine the two, then they're a total wash, completely interchangeable. So no, combining Saves & Holds does not bring tighter the value of closers and relievers; in fact, it does exactly the opposite.
Trojan Pony wrote:Too slugger heavy? Aren't Runs, Net SB, and Walks less slugger-friendly? And XBH is a little less "slugger" friendly than just HR... If anything, I think the batting cats I have now are LESS slugger-friendly than the typical roto league. No?

Walks are very slugger-friendly. Generally speaking, the guys who hit the long ball also tend to be very high in walks both because they get pitched around and because walks and HRs are an "older-player" skill.

Here's the leaders in walks for 2008:
Adam Dunn
Jack Cust
Albert Pujols
Pat Burrell
Lance Berkman
Nick Markakis
Grady Sizemore
Mark Teixeira
BJ Upton
Carlos Pena
David Wright
Carlos Beltran
Hanley Ramirez
Jim Thome
Chipper Jones
Russell Martin
Brian Giles
Troy Glaus
Manny Ramirez
Prince Fielder
Joe Mauer
Brian Roberts
Nick Swisher

I could keep going on, but you should get the idea. As far as xBH, I can't find one place with them all except by team, so here's the 2008 leaders for a few teams.
Tampa Bay:
Longoria (60)
Carlos Pena (57)
Upton (48)
Iwamura (47)
Hinske (42)

D-Backs
Stephen Drew (76)
Chris B. Young (71)
Reynolds (59)
Conor Jackson (49)

Braves
McCann (66)
Kelly Johnson (57)
Chipper Jones (47)
Francouer (47)
Teixeira (47)
Escobar (36)

Mets
Wright (77)
Beltran (72)
Reyes (72)
Delgado (71)
Tatis (28)

Twins
Morneau (74)
Kubel (47)
Mauer (44)
Delmon Young (42)
Harris (39)
Gomez (38)

Tigers
Cabrera (75)
Granderson (61)
Ordonez (55)
Polanco (45)
Guillen (41)
Thames (37)
Sheffield (35)

In other words, I would call the stat mostly a wash, but still slightly favoring sluggers who are hitting HRs and doubles. It is less slugger-friendly than pure HRs, sure, but I don't think you're trying to just be "better than traditional 5x5." And under your current system, you overly favor slugging still.
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Re: What do you think of these categories? 6x6

Postby Trojan Pony » Tue Mar 10, 2009 6:45 pm

OK, I see what you're saying about SV+HD... But if I were to go with that how would you suggest curbing against a deemphasis on relievers and overemphasis on starters? With W, QS, and K, and Saves and Holds wrapped into one, I could see people neglecting relievers altogether, loading up on starters and hoping for the best with their ratios. Is there maybe a good reliever-friendly category that could be the 7th cat? Not a huge fan of K/9 or K/BB as I feel they correlate too strongly to K and WHIP respectively, but haven't ruled either out... Thanks for your help.
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