The obvious injured ones, A-Rod, Ben Sheets, Dustin McGowan, and Shawn Marcum come to mind immediatly. Cliff Lee, Kevin Youkalis, BJ Upton, Dice-K, Vernon Wells, Carlos Delgado, Matt Kemp (I just want to see another season, I think he's being drafted too high), Kerry Wood, Ryan Dempster, Chien-Ming Wang, Huston Street, David Price (unless it's a keeper or dynasty. Too much hype), Fausto Carmona, Matt Garza, Joe Saunders, Xavier Nady, Hiroki Huroda (he's gonna get smashed this season, hitter's will figure him out he's not that good), Matt Wieters (same reason as Price), Jeff Francoeur, Michael Bourn (He had a hot spring and stole tons of bases last spring too... fool me once shame on you), Hank Blalock... ah that's all that come to mind right now.
Chien-Ming Wang-I just think he is a mediocre pitcher at best. Jon Lester-Innings pitched last season (240) a big increase over previous high as a pro (180) Matt Wieters-Someone will draft him too high and only get 2/3 of a season out of him. He is a nice player, but rookies are scary. Matt Joyce-Some people like Joyce as a sleeper. I am a Detroit fan that has seen him a lot, to me he is a 5th OF. In MLB, not fantasy. Vernon Wells-For some reason I have this feeling he is an injury risk the rest of his career. Carlos Guillen-Running all over the place in the OF will not help this declining player's already gimpy legs. Cliff Lee-Can you say "flash in the pan"? Jermaine Dye-Getting old, playing in an old offense. Will break down sooner than later. Mike Cuddyer-Or whomever is the odd man out in the Minnesota OF. Span, Gomez, and Young all apply here. Mike Jacobs-Another position thing. I dont want anyone that is in the KC 1b/DH mix. Lots of AB's will be split there. Michael Young-Not sure how he responds to the position change, and he could be traded out of the hitters paradise ballpark. Ichiro-This is a guy that does not manufacture runs on his own, and his team lost its best RBI guy. Getting old. Vlad Guerrero-I thought he was breaking down physically even before the age discrepancy came to light. Eric Chavez-Do you need to ask? Anyone that drafts this guy deserves to finish last in their league. John Maine-Average pitcher. Picked him more on default because I like most of the Mets. Jayson Werth-I would rather take another similarly talented guy that has shown a touch more of a track record of success. Andrew Miller-He might be taken as a flier. Not by me. Control seems to be a problem here. Elijah Dukes-See Minnesota Twins OF. Dunn will get AB's, the other guys, who knows? Kelly Johnson-Not much upside for a guy that will go in the mid to late rounds. Get someone that can overperform expectations. Derrek Lee-Declining numbers. Increasing age. Ryan Ludwick-No one had him on the radar before last season. Another instance of me wanting to see more track record. Edwin Encarnacion-Someone else can draft him and wait on a breakout year that never comes. Rickie Weeks-See Edwin Encarnacion, but with way more downside to hurt your team. Nate McLouth-Lack of track record. Won't be bad, but will be overdrafted. Lance Berkman-Being picked very high based on a great year last year. But that great year was due to two very hot months early on. Hiroki Kuroda-What Tenacious said. The league will figure him out this year. Todd Helton-Probably not the starter by the end of the year. 22 Padres (exceptions are A Gonzalez, Peavy, and Bell)-Just a bad team. Chris B Young-The power-speed mix is intriguing, but the Dbacks seemed to not run much last year. Bob Melvin trying to be Bill Bean. Matt Cain-The Giants are on the way up, but the offense still will be bad enough that the SP's fall short in W's.
Most of Tenacious D Store's list looks good too, except I would not personally have included Upton or Kemp. For those two, it is all about the price you pay though.
Some choices I'll agree with, but with many, I won't. Personally, I don't have a "do not draft" list except for a few exceptions. There are players mentioned here who I'd gladly take if they drop a round or two or more. The point is not to overpay for certain players for where they're taken on average. For example, I don't see Cliff Lee being worth the 68th overall pick because that's setting yourself up for disappointment. His GB/FB rate sounds fluky, but I don't think his improved control isn't. So, I'll say Lee is worth taking a 10th-11th round pick on relative to other pitchers there, just not the 6th round pick that his MDP indicates. Some of the guys mentioned like Dukes, Jacobs, and Kuroda are pretty much endgame picks to the point where drafting them isn't a massive risk either.
I'm high on Mike Aviles (pretty much my man crush this season), which, thank god, no one mentioned here.
I'm staying away from: Josh Beckett (he scares me) Rickie Weeks (what RDD15 said) Vlad (love the guy, but age is creeping up on him) Berkman (This guy had some monster weeks, but that's doubtful to happen again) Carlos Delgado (Age will creep up to him, and I would rather take a risk in the later rounds than early with this guy, with so many other better players around his AVP) Matt Wieters (I got him on my bench, maybe i'll use him as trade fodder. My main C, Ramon Hernandez, will probably play better than him) Too much expectations.