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Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 08, 2009 8:12 pm

kab21 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Since about half of closers in baseball are shaky, that gives you a good 10-15 high upside MRs.


Except that not all of those MR guys are high upside, typically guys that might lose their job don't have a guy with excellent ratios setting him up.

Who's Hanrahan's backup? Or who's the backup (or closer) in Seattle? SD? Tex? If you're grabbing a guy like Motte, Putz, Ray, Kuo or something comparable then yes they have upside (although Kuo and Putz are behind guys with secure jobs) and I don't disagree with that. But picking up Cla Meredith, CJ Wilson, Miguel Batista, and other possible next inline closers won't help your ratios. You need to have both opportunity and skills.


Or Balfour or Saito or Marte or Zumaya or Dotel or Madson or Rafeal Perez...I can easily name 10-15 guys who will either be a good opportunity for vulture saves in uncertain closer situations (if Broxton struggles in his first 2 months, do you really think the Dodgers aren't going to make a switch?) and/or will give a big help to your rate stats.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 08, 2009 8:14 pm

fezzik wrote:
The impact depends on how long you ride the guy you initially targeted to be an MR ace. If anyone else is also employing this strategy, replacements for your MR will most likely not be a sure thing. You will definitely be able to find someone who's been pitching well recently, but they probably won't have much of a track record if they're still available. You might be better off holding onto your initial MR...I know last year someone in my league drafted R. Perez to employ this strategy but bailed on him after 30 days of suck. Then I picked him up after his May performance and got some good use out of his arm.

It's simply not as clear cut as you claim...

I'm not specifically against this strategy btw...I've used it before. I'm just saying that it has some drawbacks when you actually try to implement it. The theory is much prettier than the actual practice of it.


And I'm not saying the plan is clear cut. I'm simply saying it's just as defensible strategy as grabbing a rookie without a clear starting opportunity in those late rounds.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby kab21 » Sun Mar 08, 2009 8:58 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Or Balfour or Saito or Marte or Zumaya or Dotel or Madson or Rafeal Perez...I can easily name 10-15 guys who will either be a good opportunity for vulture saves in uncertain closer situations (if Broxton struggles in his first 2 months, do you really think the Dodgers aren't going to make a switch?) and/or will give a big help to your rate stats.


Papelbon is shaky? Or Lidge? Is Balfour first in line in Tampa or is it Izzy or Wheeler?

They only have upside if they have a good chance to be the closer.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby rookies and cream » Sun Mar 08, 2009 9:12 pm

kab21 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Or Balfour or Saito or Marte or Zumaya or Dotel or Madson or Rafeal Perez...I can easily name 10-15 guys who will either be a good opportunity for vulture saves in uncertain closer situations (if Broxton struggles in his first 2 months, do you really think the Dodgers aren't going to make a switch?) and/or will give a big help to your rate stats.


Papelbon is shaky? Or Lidge? Is Balfour first in line in Tampa or is it Izzy or Wheeler?

They only have upside if they have a good chance to be the closer.


I'm pretty sure GTWMA was just naming MRers with good ratios...
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby kab21 » Sun Mar 08, 2009 9:46 pm

rookies and cream wrote:
I'm pretty sure GTWMA was just naming MRers with good ratios...


MR's with only good ratios don't have alot of upside with a 1450 IP max. Late in the draft I'm looking to grab some guys with upside. Maybe it's a high risk arm, a hitting prospect or a potential closer like Motte or Ray. Not a good ratio MR guy.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 08, 2009 10:29 pm

kab21 wrote:
rookies and cream wrote:
I'm pretty sure GTWMA was just naming MRers with good ratios...


MR's with only good ratios don't have alot of upside with a 1450 IP max. Late in the draft I'm looking to grab some guys with upside. Maybe it's a high risk arm, a hitting prospect or a potential closer like Motte or Ray. Not a good ratio MR guy.


No, they do. You simply are not going to lose enough on wins to match what you get from higher K ratios, and better WHIP and ERA.

Maybe you should re-think your options. Those other options are perfectly fine. But, so is the MR option.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Mar 08, 2009 10:34 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
kab21 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Since about half of closers in baseball are shaky, that gives you a good 10-15 high upside MRs.


Except that not all of those MR guys are high upside, typically guys that might lose their job don't have a guy with excellent ratios setting him up.

Who's Hanrahan's backup? Or who's the backup (or closer) in Seattle? SD? Tex? If you're grabbing a guy like Motte, Putz, Ray, Kuo or something comparable then yes they have upside (although Kuo and Putz are behind guys with secure jobs) and I don't disagree with that. But picking up Cla Meredith, CJ Wilson, Miguel Batista, and other possible next inline closers won't help your ratios. You need to have both opportunity and skills.


Or Balfour or Saito or Marte or Zumaya or Dotel or Madson or Rafeal Perez...I can easily name 10-15 guys who will either be a good opportunity for vulture saves in uncertain closer situations (if Broxton struggles in his first 2 months, do you really think the Dodgers aren't going to make a switch?) and/or will give a big help to your rate stats.

The Dodgers would turn to Kuo a lot faster than many people think.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:02 am

Here's the Middle Reliever Strategy Thread from last year.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby J35J » Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:21 am

I generally always have at least 1 MR on my teams and I don't care if they are in line for saves or not.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby tiggis » Mon Mar 09, 2009 2:43 pm

Here is what I do.

1.Get 2 above average starters. (I like K pitchers will good whips and low XERA, and good K/BB ratios) after round 11.
2. Fill in MRs favoring whip and K/BB ratios when ever value dictates
3. Stream starters - (several good weekly starter threads on FBC)

This makes you fearless when it comes to pitcher injuries.. who cares if I lose a 12th round starter.. and if I lose a MR or a streamer.. they were expendable anyway.

Plus since I am in a closer crazy league.. often times when one of my MRs becomes closer I can cut a very good deal before he falls back to earth.
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