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Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby Bloody Sox » Sat Mar 07, 2009 9:37 pm

Yeah, I like the strategy too because they are so expendable... unlike another poster on here earlier, I actually like to draft MR that could become closers. Last year in my main league I drafted only 4 starters and 1 closer (more extreme than I wanted to go with this strategy), along with 5 middle relievers (1250 IP limit). A couple of those middle relievers did become closers within the first 4-5 weeks of the year, and the others three I eventually dropped to pick up hot starters (Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Shaun Marcum). By Memorial Day, I wasn't carrying any MR but I had a full complement of 6 SP and 4 closers.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 07, 2009 10:33 pm

Actually, you almost certainly NOT going to hurt your Ks doing this, and possibly not your wins either. The top MRs more than make up for their lack of IP with a significantly higher K/9, so even with fewer IP, they end up with nearly the same Ks. Look at the guys selected near the end of a draft. Kyle Lohse (current MDP of 278) and Grant Balfour (270). Lohse only gets you about 100-120Ks in 190 to 200 IP, while Balfour gets you 75 to 85 in just 60 IP. Hell, pick Balfour and then stream Lohse with the last guy on your bench for half his starts against the worst teams and you'll crush beat Lohse's K and win totals, as well as WHIP and ERA and still have 40 IP to spare.

Yes, this works better in leagues with bigger benches. But, it's perfectly viable in other leagues, too.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby Ender » Sun Mar 08, 2009 2:30 am

The biggest problem with this is that while you think balfour will get you 85 K in 60 IP his history suggests he is just as likely to get you 60 K in 60 IP and a 4 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP. RP seasons are about as unpredictable as you can get and the few that have had multiple years of success are still pretty expensive.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 08, 2009 8:22 am

Ender wrote:The biggest problem with this is that while you think balfour will get you 85 K in 60 IP his history suggests he is just as likely to get you 60 K in 60 IP and a 4 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP. RP seasons are about as unpredictable as you can get and the few that have had multiple years of success are still pretty expensive.


They not really expensive and if they tank, you pick up a better one. How many teams hang on to any of their draft picks from round 20 on for the full season?
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby kab21 » Sun Mar 08, 2009 1:42 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Ender wrote:The biggest problem with this is that while you think balfour will get you 85 K in 60 IP his history suggests he is just as likely to get you 60 K in 60 IP and a 4 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP. RP seasons are about as unpredictable as you can get and the few that have had multiple years of success are still pretty expensive.


They not really expensive and if they tank, you pick up a better one. How many teams hang on to any of their draft picks from round 20 on for the full season?


That's why I'm going to pick a player with upside at that point in the draft. After things get sorted out then I'll pick up a MR if needed.

Some MR's that are potential closers where the closer is shaky might qualify as high upside guys. But I'll prefer to take a shot at LaPorta, Snider, or some sleeper pitchers.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby fezzik » Sun Mar 08, 2009 3:51 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Ender wrote:The biggest problem with this is that while you think balfour will get you 85 K in 60 IP his history suggests he is just as likely to get you 60 K in 60 IP and a 4 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP. RP seasons are about as unpredictable as you can get and the few that have had multiple years of success are still pretty expensive.


They not really expensive and if they tank, you pick up a better one. How many teams hang on to any of their draft picks from round 20 on for the full season?


I made a similar argument to Ender, so I'll put in my two cents. First, if your RP tanked then you're off to a pretty bad start trying to get those sweet ratio stats and high K/9, so even if you get another guy to step in you're going to have an uphill battle. And how long do you hold onto a MR who you expect to dominate? How long do you let them struggle/tank before you try your hand at someone else? And once you decide to try someone else, who is to say that this new MR is going to do any better? This new guy may have been dominating pretty well so far during the season, but there's not guarantee he's going to keep putting up elite numbers.

It's conceivable you guess right and all your MR pan out, but it's not as easy to implement this strategy as you're letting on IMO. It's definitely possible and I think it has a lot of merit, but you have to get a little lucky.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 08, 2009 5:23 pm

kab21 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Ender wrote:The biggest problem with this is that while you think balfour will get you 85 K in 60 IP his history suggests he is just as likely to get you 60 K in 60 IP and a 4 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP. RP seasons are about as unpredictable as you can get and the few that have had multiple years of success are still pretty expensive.


They not really expensive and if they tank, you pick up a better one. How many teams hang on to any of their draft picks from round 20 on for the full season?


That's why I'm going to pick a player with upside at that point in the draft. After things get sorted out then I'll pick up a MR if needed.

Some MR's that are potential closers where the closer is shaky might qualify as high upside guys. But I'll prefer to take a shot at LaPorta, Snider, or some sleeper pitchers.


Since about half of closers in baseball are shaky, that gives you a good 10-15 high upside MRs.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sun Mar 08, 2009 5:26 pm

fezzik wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Ender wrote:The biggest problem with this is that while you think balfour will get you 85 K in 60 IP his history suggests he is just as likely to get you 60 K in 60 IP and a 4 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP. RP seasons are about as unpredictable as you can get and the few that have had multiple years of success are still pretty expensive.


They not really expensive and if they tank, you pick up a better one. How many teams hang on to any of their draft picks from round 20 on for the full season?


I made a similar argument to Ender, so I'll put in my two cents. First, if your RP tanked then you're off to a pretty bad start trying to get those sweet ratio stats and high K/9, so even if you get another guy to step in you're going to have an uphill battle. And how long do you hold onto a MR who you expect to dominate? How long do you let them struggle/tank before you try your hand at someone else? And once you decide to try someone else, who is to say that this new MR is going to do any better? This new guy may have been dominating pretty well so far during the season, but there's not guarantee he's going to keep putting up elite numbers.

It's conceivable you guess right and all your MR pan out, but it's not as easy to implement this strategy as you're letting on IMO. It's definitely possible and I think it has a lot of merit, but you have to get a little lucky.


First, you're not in bad shape, because it's in so few IP the impact is limited. Second, the angst you have from releasing Balfour to pick up Marte is a lot less than the angst you'll have trying to make up your mind to drop or keep Travis Snider.

Third, like you don't have to get lucky with late round high upside rookie picks? These are all high risk, high reward type picks.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby kab21 » Sun Mar 08, 2009 5:35 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Since about half of closers in baseball are shaky, that gives you a good 10-15 high upside MRs.


Except that not all of those MR guys are high upside, typically guys that might lose their job don't have a guy with excellent ratios setting him up.

Who's Hanrahan's backup? Or who's the backup (or closer) in Seattle? SD? Tex? If you're grabbing a guy like Motte, Putz, Ray, Kuo or something comparable then yes they have upside (although Kuo and Putz are behind guys with secure jobs) and I don't disagree with that. But picking up Cla Meredith, CJ Wilson, Miguel Batista, and other possible next inline closers won't help your ratios. You need to have both opportunity and skills.
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Re: Tell me if I am wrong ( and why if so).

Postby fezzik » Sun Mar 08, 2009 6:36 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:First, you're not in bad shape, because it's in so few IP the impact is limited. Second, the angst you have from releasing Balfour to pick up Marte is a lot less than the angst you'll have trying to make up your mind to drop or keep Travis Snider.

Third, like you don't have to get lucky with late round high upside rookie picks? These are all high risk, high reward type picks.


The impact depends on how long you ride the guy you initially targeted to be an MR ace. If anyone else is also employing this strategy, replacements for your MR will most likely not be a sure thing. You will definitely be able to find someone who's been pitching well recently, but they probably won't have much of a track record if they're still available. You might be better off holding onto your initial MR...I know last year someone in my league drafted R. Perez to employ this strategy but bailed on him after 30 days of suck. Then I picked him up after his May performance and got some good use out of his arm.

It's simply not as clear cut as you claim...

I'm not specifically against this strategy btw...I've used it before. I'm just saying that it has some drawbacks when you actually try to implement it. The theory is much prettier than the actual practice of it.
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