Who else is out there will be picking in the #12/#13 spots of a 12-team serpentine draft? I'm trying to get a little discussion going on what other people in this situation are thinking right now. It's hard to be totally sure until you're actually on the clock but for the sake of argument let's say the following guys are off the board (it has to be a given that A-Rod is out of the first round now):
Ramirez Pujols Wright Reyes Sizemore Braun Cabrera Rollins (would consider him if he drops but there are a lot of productive SS later and his power numbers aren't going to get back up into 25 HR territory, IMO) Kinsler (I pray he falls to #12 but after last year I doubt it) Teixeira (could be there and I'd have to strongly consider him but will A-Rod being out for a long period of time hurt him much?) Howard (not sure he'll be gone but with his name and gaudy power numbers I wouldn't be surprised)
I know I'll get a couple of good players but valuewise it feels a bit like No Man's Land to me. I see that FBB Cafe's own Ray Flores got Teixeira and Utley at those spots. Not bad if both are available (I suspect one will be gone), but I'm not in love with the idea of my best OF being someone along the lines of Bay, Quentin, Rios, Granderson, etc.
So what are you other guys picking at #12 looking at/hoping for? Who else would you consider there? Hamilton? Too high, IMO. Berkman? Maybe, but I'm not sure. Upton? Too high. Beltran? Thoughts?
I would look to take Utley and Hamilton. Berkman is not eligible at OF anymore. It's too early for Upton and Berkman. It looks like Utley will be ready for the start of the season. If you want an outfielder and Hamilton is gone, then Soriano and Beltran are next.
Not that you're even considering it, but I'm generally not a fan of taking one of the big SPs at the turn. With that out of the way, I think the best options are to team two guys who can bring you a nice combo of categories. For example, let's say Tex or Howard is there -- combine one of them with Beltran and you have a good power/speed combo. Also like Utley there, feels like he's being undervalued.
I think Utley will be available when you pick. And if he is, I would pick Upton as a high risk high reward pick and then roll with a guarnteed producer of top 2B stats in Utley. I always try to land a guy early in which I know what I'm getting, and then also select someone who has a high ceiling and some room for failure. If you want to be a champ, risks are necessary
I was in that position last week and almost had Miggy fall to me. That said I took Tex with the #12 pick. With #13, I wasn't enamored with the names but almost went with Utley. I decided to take the power arm in Lincecum. Then I took hitters for the next 5 or 6 rounds, already having my ace. I think Longoria fell to me in the 3rd so its not like there isn't still a lot of upside available.
honestly, i think tex will be there, though im not too sure how i feel about him this season, esp after the ARod inj...i have nothing to back the feeling up, just one of those gut things, but if hes there, you have to take him
i think kinsler falls to the 12 spot, but given what youve said, cant go there hamilton wouldnt be bad, but i agree, late first/early second might be a touch early
in the end, i go with the best power bat available (tex or howard will be there, im sure of it) and then im tempted to roll the dice with bj upton (he could go 20/40 or better)...i also dont mind timmy linc here, but i dont like taking SPs that early
My thinking is that I'm definitely going to have to get a power bat and, as someone pointed out, either Howard or Tex will be there. I haven't updated the scoring categories in my sig yet but there is a new commish and he's added some this year. One is Ks so that's a strike against Howard. I'm thinking his big power numbers/MVP/WS Champ accolade elevate him to the point that he's gone when I pick anyway. Some reservations about Tex if A-Rod misses significant time but he seems to put up numbers no matter what.
I would love Kinsler to fall. One of you guys doesn't seem to care for him that high but I think his production has a very good chance of justifying it. He's one of the guys I targeted last year and even reached a bit for, but he paid off big time (the injury with 6 weeks to go aside). If Utley is there, though, I'll probably have to take him.
I just don't like any of the OF there. Period. I think Hamilton will put up good numbers but I don't like the small sample size for a guy I'm taking that high and I expect that he's going to miss some games. I like Upton's upside but am not as optimistic about his ceiling as some people and think the #13 pick is a bit high.
SP is not a consideration for me that high. I just don't do it. I've seen it backfire too many times and there are plenty of SP I know I can get in the mid and even later rounds that will probably outproduce their draft position.
What in the world do you do there? My co-owner took Berkman and Holliday. Not a fan of those guys quite that high. Teixeira was available but he valued Berkman more because of Tex's traditionally slow starts as well as the A-Rod injury. Not sure if that is how I see it but I don't honestly see a big difference in value between the two players.
This is a horrible position to be in. I honestly feel like everyone available at that point is a reach. What 2 players would you guys take in this scenario? Howard? Maybe, but the new Commish added Ks as a category against batters so that drops his value a bit.
that's why I took Lincecum at #13. I hate drafting pitchers early but I felt like you did about the offensive names. I got the power bat and decided on the power arm. That gave me a bit more freedom in next 5 or 6 rounds to go with more reasonably positioned players.