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How does a 1st-rounder become a first rounder?

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Re: How does a 1st-rounder become a first rounder?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 07, 2009 10:50 pm

hybrid wrote:
So where do you think he should of been promoted faster?

-Low A-, only 169 AB, didn't really hit that well, didn't show that much power, and k'd a lot. Also its short season ball, they couldn't of moved him anywhere after the season and he didn't deserve it either.
-Low A, pretty much more of the same...
-High A, you could of pushed him a bit more maybe, but he still was striking out way to much and I think it was the right move
-AA/AAA, I already went over pretty much. He destroyed AA, so they moved him up. Theey had Thome so they couldnt be too agressive, and he got his shot after 300+ AB in AAA. I don't see how they could of done anymore in the situation and the surely didn't stall him to a half at any level.

I don't get any of the comparisons either, just because of PA's? Seems like such an odd way of saying you were right. Ryan Howard was a very rare player, you certainly can't compare him to someone like Tex, Jackson, or Butler in any sense of the word. Chris Davis a bit more similiar but even then, he lit up AA/AAA as a 22 year old, while Howard was still in Low A, not doing nearly as much at the same age.

I'm just not inclined to move hitters fast when they are obviously showing a lack of contact. The Phillies did a pretty solid job and I doubt anyone can complain with the result. Even if you think they could of pushed him a bit, it certainly didn't take forever.


Again, just look at the players I compared. LaRoche for example, skipped right over low A ball, and went from rookie ball to A+. He struggled like all get out, but that's one example where the Pirates pushed him faster. Then, after a decent repeat at A+, they moved him mid-season to AA. Then he spent just half a season at AAA before getting up to MLB, another place where the Pirates treatment was different.

The problem with the notion that he "struggled" or "didn't hit for power" is that it ignores that essentially every league he played in is full of pitcher's parks. For example, the Lakewood park has been rated 5-10% pitcher park as all almost all the parks in that league, meaning the .825 OPS that Howard put up there was really closer to a .870 to .900 OPS. Lack of contact is a load of nonsense. This is a guy who has a minor BA of .299 playing exclusively in neutral to pitching park/leagues.

I compared him to those other guys because they are 1B who started play around 20/21 (strike that for Butler, by the way). Howard, despite hitting every bit as well as they did, was left in the minors for significantly longer. The Phillies took much longer to get him to the majors than other teams have done with prospects with similar hitting abilities and ages. That's exactly what they comparison shows. He had half a season to 2 seasons more than any of those other players.
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Re: How does a 1st-rounder become a first rounder?

Postby rookies and cream » Sat Mar 07, 2009 10:57 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
hybrid wrote:
So where do you think he should of been promoted faster?

-Low A-, only 169 AB, didn't really hit that well, didn't show that much power, and k'd a lot. Also its short season ball, they couldn't of moved him anywhere after the season and he didn't deserve it either.
-Low A, pretty much more of the same...
-High A, you could of pushed him a bit more maybe, but he still was striking out way to much and I think it was the right move
-AA/AAA, I already went over pretty much. He destroyed AA, so they moved him up. Theey had Thome so they couldnt be too agressive, and he got his shot after 300+ AB in AAA. I don't see how they could of done anymore in the situation and the surely didn't stall him to a half at any level.

I don't get any of the comparisons either, just because of PA's? Seems like such an odd way of saying you were right. Ryan Howard was a very rare player, you certainly can't compare him to someone like Tex, Jackson, or Butler in any sense of the word. Chris Davis a bit more similiar but even then, he lit up AA/AAA as a 22 year old, while Howard was still in Low A, not doing nearly as much at the same age.

I'm just not inclined to move hitters fast when they are obviously showing a lack of contact. The Phillies did a pretty solid job and I doubt anyone can complain with the result. Even if you think they could of pushed him a bit, it certainly didn't take forever.


Again, just look at the players I compared. LaRoche for example, skipped right over low A ball, and went from rookie ball to A+. He struggled like all get out, but that's one example where the Pirates pushed him faster. Then, after a decent repeat at A+, they moved him mid-season to AA. Then he spent just half a season at AAA before getting up to MLB, another place where the Pirates treatment was different.

The problem with the notion that he "struggled" or "didn't hit for power" is that it ignores that essentially every league he played in is full of pitcher's parks. For example, the Lakewood park has been rated 5-10% pitcher park as all almost all the parks in that league, meaning the .825 OPS that Howard put up there was really closer to a .870 to .900 OPS. Lack of contact is a load of nonsense. This is a guy who has a minor BA of .299 playing exclusively in neutral to pitching park/leagues.

I compared him to those other guys because they are 1B who started play around 20/21 (strike that for Butler, by the way). Howard, despite hitting every bit as well as they did, was left in the minors for significantly longer. The Phillies took much longer to get him to the majors than other teams have done with prospects with similar hitting abilities and ages. That's exactly what they comparison shows. He had half a season to 2 seasons more than any of those other players.


Adam LaRoche came up in the Braves organization.
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Re: How does a 1st-rounder become a first rounder?

Postby Niffoc4 » Mon Mar 09, 2009 5:04 pm

rookies and cream wrote:Hanley wasn't a first rounder until last year (his 3rd year). I was able to snag him late 3rd round in 2007 and I believe he was a 15-20 rounder his rookie year.

I didn't say that he was *drafted* in the first round every year, I said he provided that type of production. People don't tend to draft someone in the first round he performed way above expectations one year, they wait to see if its a trend... so you were able to snag him in the 3rd.
While every player's path is different... it seems (from the admittedly small sample of current 1st round players) that players who become consensus 1st rounders rarely struggle in the *majors* at all. Even Josh Hamilton showed tremendous power his first year in the bigs, sure he'd taken a couple of years off...

I really started thinking about this in the context of a keeper league. Some players with top prospect pedigrees are overvalued because of their 'high ceiling.' But is there ceiling that high? Take Alex Gordon for example. He's a solid player, and could become a fifth rounder or so. Do I think he'll be taken in the first round ever? No, I would argue that his ceiling is lower than that now.

GTWMA- on David Clyde
1. He's a pitcher, I think its safe to say that in general 1st rounders are hitters
2. I agree if you are contending that putting up average numbers at a young age (while impressive) does not make someone a future 1st rounder... see Wilson Betemit, Andy marte...
However, if you put up stellar numbers I think it is different.
3. Didn't injuries do Clyde in?
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Re: How does a 1st-rounder become a first rounder?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 09, 2009 8:40 pm

Niffoc4 wrote:
GTWMA- on David Clyde
1. He's a pitcher, I think its safe to say that in general 1st rounders are hitters
2. I agree if you are contending that putting up average numbers at a young age (while impressive) does not make someone a future 1st rounder... see Wilson Betemit, Andy marte...
However, if you put up stellar numbers I think it is different.
3. Didn't injuries do Clyde in?


Yes, I'm just cautioning that not every hitter who has success at a young age pans out. Juan Samuel is another guy who basically never developed, after a strong debut at a young age.

Yes, I think Clyde was injured, in part because they put him up against the big guys too soon. Hanley's comps include some incredible players, and he's more likely to follow that path. It also includes Benito Santiago who had 8 straight years of OPS+ below his debut OPS+
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Re: How does a 1st-rounder become a first rounder?

Postby Niffoc4 » Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:23 pm

That makes sense... and I'm not saying every young player who has a good year will be a first rounder... but if they aren't young AND they struggle in the beginning then they probably won't be a top pick
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Re: How does a 1st-rounder become a first rounder?

Postby Niffoc4 » Mon Mar 09, 2009 11:30 pm

That makes sense... and I'm not saying every young player who has a good year will be a first rounder... but if they aren't young AND they struggle in the beginning then they probably won't be a top pick (duh!)
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Re: How does a 1st-rounder become a first rounder?

Postby Kraftwerk » Mon Mar 09, 2009 11:49 pm

Longoria hit the ground running, and isnt far off 1st round status.

Timmy too

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Re: How does a 1st-rounder become a first rounder?

Postby j24jags » Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:05 am

Matt Holliday is an interesting case...
He was 24 during his rookie year and went .290/65/14/57/3 in 400 ABs
then at 25 in 05- .307/68/19/87/14 (HUGE Post ASB Breakout) in 479 ABs
finally in 06- .326/119/34/114/10 in 602 ABs (This obviously is where he reached 1st round status)
07 - .340/120/36/127/11 (Sick year, top 5 player by year's end)
08 - .321/107/25/88/28 (Weird SB breakout, power outage due to injuries mostly)

Anyways, he didn't exactly hit the ground running, he was fairly old as a rookie compared to some of the other guys (with the exception of Howard). He definitely did have the park factor working for him. His breakout came after about 600 ABs (first season and first half of 2nd). His minor league numbers were lousy at best. He batted .264, .274, .275, .276, .253 respectively from 1999-2003. Can anyone explain his rise to stardom better than I can? :-?
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Re: How does a 1st-rounder become a first rounder?

Postby Yoda » Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:52 am

j24jags wrote:Matt Holliday is an interesting case...
He was 24 during his rookie year and went .290/65/14/57/3 in 400 ABs
then at 25 in 05- .307/68/19/87/14 (HUGE Post ASB Breakout) in 479 ABs
finally in 06- .326/119/34/114/10 in 602 ABs (This obviously is where he reached 1st round status)
07 - .340/120/36/127/11 (Sick year, top 5 player by year's end)
08 - .321/107/25/88/28 (Weird SB breakout, power outage due to injuries mostly)

Anyways, he didn't exactly hit the ground running, he was fairly old as a rookie compared to some of the other guys (with the exception of Howard). He definitely did have the park factor working for him. His breakout came after about 600 ABs (first season and first half of 2nd). His minor league numbers were lousy at best. He batted .264, .274, .275, .276, .253 respectively from 1999-2003. Can anyone explain his rise to stardom better than I can? :-?


He wasn't old as a rook. 24 is pretty normal. I know he was recruited to play football but chose baseball instead. So he didn't really just focus on baseball until he graduated high school.

As far as the original question is concerned, it generally takes someone a few years to become a 1st rounder. Players like Arod, Pujols, Hanley, Reyes, Braun, Holliday, MCab, Howard, Hamilton, etc all became a first round pick (maybe not consensus) within 3 seasons of their play. Even Sizemore to some extent. These guys are elite talent (in fantasy sense) and they all put up ridiculously good numbers very quickly.

However, staying a 1st rounder is a very difficult feat as things can change very quickly. Injuries, slumps and other factors like getting traded (Holliday) can affect a player's descent since we are all so fickle.
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