How does a 1st-rounder become a first rounder?

[Niffoc4]

I've been thinking about this for a couple weeks as I prepare for my keeper draft, and wanted some input. I am trying to figure out what profile current 1st round players had before they were valued as highly in fantasy baseball... so then in a league where I may not have a chance this year I'll swing for the fences and go after guys that I think fit the profile. Basically my contention is that most 1st round players have been valuable fantasy players EVERY year or almost every year in the majors. They also tend to reach the majors at a young age. I know these aren't ground-breaking, but I think this makes it pretty safe to rule out Alex Gordon's upside as being the next Alex Rodriguez...Also, it encourages me to take someone like Matt Wieters, because PECOTA is all over him, and if he hits that well this year, I'll never have a chance at him in a keeper league.

Current 1st round players
1. Hanley- reached the majors at 23, had a 1st round quality year that year
2. Jose Reyes- reached the majors at 19, had a couple of half seasons that were ok (for his age), became a valuable player 2005
3. David Wright- reached the majors at age 21 and had a good half year, had a 1st round quality year the next year
4. Albert Pujols- reached the majors at 23 (I think) and has been awesome ever since

I'm a little too lazy to keep going, but I think this fits with Howard (except for the young age), Sizemore and Braun.

[mocabeenow]

Future 1st Rounders? If you can predict who will breakout and be a 1st rounder, sign me up.

These players came to mind: based off your observations.
Jay Bruce - hit 21 homeruns when he was 21.
Justin Upton - 17 career HR's. Will probably have 25-30 career homeruns mixed with avg. SB speed before he turns 21.
Chris Davis - 17hr/55rbi's in a half season at the age of 22. Sky-rocketed through the system.

Seems like all of these guys you can get between the 5-12 rounds - depending where you draft (yahoo, espn, cbs, etc.) and who you draft against.

~Moc

[GotowarMissAgnes]

I certainly think guys who make a mark at a young age are great, but organizations make mistakes both ways. Look up David Clyde. And Howard was a case where the Phillies had him blocked by Thome and took forever to give him an opportunity.

[rookies and cream]

I've been thinking about this for a couple weeks as I prepare for my keeper draft, and wanted some input. I am trying to figure out what profile current 1st round players had before they were valued as highly in fantasy baseball... so then in a league where I may not have a chance this year I'll swing for the fences and go after guys that I think fit the profile. Basically my contention is that most 1st round players have been valuable fantasy players EVERY year or almost every year in the majors. They also tend to reach the majors at a young age. I know these aren't ground-breaking, but I think this makes it pretty safe to rule out Alex Gordon's upside as being the next Alex Rodriguez...Also, it encourages me to take someone like Matt Wieters, because PECOTA is all over him, and if he hits that well this year, I'll never have a chance at him in a keeper league.

Current 1st round players
1. Hanley- reached the majors at 23, had a 1st round quality year that year
2. Jose Reyes- reached the majors at 19, had a couple of half seasons that were ok (for his age), became a valuable player 2005
3. David Wright- reached the majors at age 21 and had a good half year, had a 1st round quality year the next year
4. Albert Pujols- reached the majors at 23 (I think) and has been awesome ever since

I'm a little too lazy to keep going, but I think this fits with Howard (except for the young age), Sizemore and Braun.

Hanley wasn't a first rounder until last year (his 3rd year). I was able to snag him late 3rd round in 2007 and I believe he was a 15-20 rounder his rookie year.

[j24jags]

There is no real set formula. I think it is best to look at players on a case-by-case basis. Take a look at their minor league track record, MLB track record, splits, post ASB (who finshed strong), who has a new full-time gig, so many things go into it. A lot of it is based on upside too. If you had a choice between Hanley Ramirez and Omar Vizquel/Edgar Renteria/Clint Barmes in 2006 who did you go with? Obviously in retrospect it is not even close, but they were in a similar tier going into the season.

[hybrid]

And Howard was a case where the Phillies had him blocked by Thome and took forever to give him an opportunity.

Not true and is a common mistake. Howard was got started at an older age and was more a late bloomer than anything else. In 2004 he tore up AA, then got 100+ AB in AAA where he slowed down some but continued to hit for power. Then in 2005 he killed AAA, Thome I believe got hurt, he was promoted and the rest was history. He only played 374AB in AA and 331AB in AAA, not that much time in either.

[BigZ38]

Josh Hamilton's path to the first round is anything but ordinary.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

And Howard was a case where the Phillies had him blocked by Thome and took forever to give him an opportunity.

Not true and is a common mistake. Howard was got started at an older age and was more a late bloomer than anything else. In 2004 he tore up AA, then got 100+ AB in AAA where he slowed down some but continued to hit for power. Then in 2005 he killed AAA, Thome I believe got hurt, he was promoted and the rest was history. He only played 374AB in AA and 331AB in AAA, not that much time in either.

I think you need to take a look at his earlier career in the minors. A full year at A-. A full year at A. A full year at A+. And then more than a full year at AA/AAA. In total, he had more 2000 PAs in the minors

Compare that to several other 1B who started at age 20/21 as Howard did:

Teixeira: under 500 minor leage PAs.
Chris Davis: about 1100
Cojack: about 1250
Adam Laroche and Billy Butler: about 1750

Now, Davis and Teixeira you can rightfully say hit better than Howard, though after park adjustments it's pretty darn close. But, none of the other three approached Howard's production and yet he spent half a season to 2 seasons more time in the minors than they did.

Howard was moved incredibly slow through the minors, never pushed in any way. Could have been the right move or not. But, there's no doubt he was moved a lot slower than other players who showed similar performance.

[OneLoveBoomer]

Ryan Braun fits the hit-the-ground-running model.

[hybrid]

I think you need to take a look at his earlier career in the minors. A full year at A-. A full year at A. A full year at A+. And then more than a full year at AA/AAA. In total, he had more 2000 PAs in the minors

Compare that to several other 1B who started at age 20/21 as Howard did:

Teixeira: under 500 minor leage PAs.
Chris Davis: about 1100
Cojack: about 1250
Adam Laroche and Billy Butler: about 1750

Now, Davis and Teixeira you can rightfully say hit better than Howard, though after park adjustments it's pretty darn close. But, none of the other three approached Howard's production and yet he spent half a season to 2 seasons more time in the minors than they did.

Howard was moved incredibly slow through the minors, never pushed in any way. Could have been the right move or not. But, there's no doubt he was moved a lot slower than other players who showed similar performance.

So where do you think he should of been promoted faster?

-Low A-, only 169 AB, didn't really hit that well, didn't show that much power, and k'd a lot. Also its short season ball, they couldn't of moved him anywhere after the season and he didn't deserve it either.
-Low A, pretty much more of the same...
-High A, you could of pushed him a bit more maybe, but he still was striking out way to much and I think it was the right move
-AA/AAA, I already went over pretty much. He destroyed AA, so they moved him up. Theey had Thome so they couldnt be too agressive, and he got his shot after 300+ AB in AAA. I don't see how they could of done anymore in the situation and the surely didn't stall him to a half at any level.

I don't get any of the comparisons either, just because of PA's? Seems like such an odd way of saying you were right. Ryan Howard was a very rare player, you certainly can't compare him to someone like Tex, Jackson, or Butler in any sense of the word. Chris Davis a bit more similiar but even then, he lit up AA/AAA as a 22 year old, while Howard was still in Low A, not doing nearly as much at the same age.

I'm just not inclined to move hitters fast when they are obviously showing a lack of contact. The Phillies did a pretty solid job and I doubt anyone can complain with the result. Even if you think they could of pushed him a bit, it certainly didn't take forever.