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My top 10 over-valued players

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Postby EugeneStyles » Wed Mar 10, 2004 9:02 am

I don't think you were necessarily mistaken, it's just that, basically, Gagne's ERA last year was about half the ERA of the better starting pitchers. So, Jason Schmidt's ERA was twice Gagne's, but it was still low and he pitched over twice as many innings, so his ERA Imp was a little better than Gagne. What most people don't realize is, that the best closers are still in the same ballpark with the best starters.
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Postby astimeexpires.com » Wed Mar 10, 2004 9:46 am

let me see if i get this right...

so gagne's era is (hypothetically) half of what schmidt's era is but he also has half/a quarter of the innings.

therefore, schmidt's innings+era will help you overall but because gagne's era is half of what schmidt's is it makes up for the lower amount of innings?
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Postby EugeneStyles » Wed Mar 10, 2004 2:39 pm

Approximately, yeah. But the formula for how much a guy helps your ERA is a little more complicated than that.

After all, if a guy has a 2.00 and 80 innings, he'll help your ERA, but if he has a 4.00 ERA and 160 innings, he'll hurt your ERA.

Basically, though, Gagne had enough innings to be significant, and a very, very low ERA and WHIP. If a guy had 5 innings and a 0.0 ERA and WHIP, it wouldn't do all that much for you, but once it gets to about 40 innings or more, every little bit helps, assuming his stats are good enough.
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Postby Guest » Wed Mar 10, 2004 2:42 pm

"Everybody except the #1 player in drafts can be over-rated, no matter how good they are"

Wouldn't that actually be everyone but the #1 can be underrated??

#1 player in the draft could only be overrated in all reality.....
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Postby Lofunzo » Wed Mar 10, 2004 2:49 pm

Anonymous wrote:"Everybody except the #1 player in drafts can be over-rated, no matter how good they are"

Wouldn't that actually be everyone but the #1 can be underrated??

#1 player in the draft could only be overrated in all reality.....


I understand what you are saying and I agree with LBJ. Technically, everyone can be overrated, depending on when you get them. If you think about it, you can usually get a better value later. It's all relative. Pierre in the 6th round?? I'll wrap up steals. But.......I can take some pop or a pitcher now and get Crawford later. Rolen in the 4th?? Or Ramirez in the 10th-12th?? You see where I'm going. Rolen is better but Ramirez is the obvious value pick here. The list goes on.
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Postby wkelly91 » Wed Mar 10, 2004 3:53 pm

You can analyze this to death....but my thinking was more basic.

Every year you get guys on the way down that folks are going to draft too high in hopes that they have one more year in them.
(see Bagwell & Sosa)

You also have the buzz about the latest phenom in the minors, the next "Pujos". Pujos is a once a generation player.
(see Miguel Cabrera)

Then you have the Playoff players from the previous year who grab the headlines and the buzz causes them to be drafted too high.
(see Beckett)

Thats all I was trying to say with this thread :-?
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Wed Mar 10, 2004 5:28 pm

wkelly91 wrote:Then you have the Playoff players from the previous year who grab the headlines and the buzz causes them to be drafted too high.
(see Beckett)


Yeah Beckett Sucks!

He was never a good P before the playoffs last yr.

The guy is a complete fluke.

;-7
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Postby Lofunzo » Wed Mar 10, 2004 5:35 pm

Cornbread Maxwell wrote:
wkelly91 wrote:Then you have the Playoff players from the previous year who grab the headlines and the buzz causes them to be drafted too high.
(see Beckett)


Yeah Beckett Sucks!

He was never a good P before the playoffs last yr.

The guy is a complete fluke.

;-7


I understand both points. The playoff buzz and his total dominance in the WS made me take Glaus in the 4th round last year. :-[ :-P
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Postby astimeexpires.com » Wed Mar 10, 2004 5:46 pm

how can you call beckett a fluke when he's so young? mark "the bird" fydrich, now that season was a fluke. but beckett hasn't gotten a full healthy season to prove himself yet (last year was his first season that he got more than 110 innings). you can't expect a guy who's 23 and never pitched more than 142 innings to be pedro martinez the second he gets to the majors. calling him a fluke is just plain stupid
Last edited by astimeexpires.com on Wed Mar 10, 2004 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby astimeexpires.com » Wed Mar 10, 2004 5:48 pm

on top of that, what evidence do you have that the world series was a fluke and that he's not going to tear it up this year? did you get a time machine and simulate the next 15 years and find out that beckett never pitched a single good game again? using the term "a complete fluke" seems like you don't know your stuff. think before you speak (or blog in this case)
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