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My top 10 over-valued players

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Re: mine...

Postby EugeneStyles » Tue Mar 09, 2004 2:34 pm

astimeexpires.com wrote:2. eric gagne- he's a freaking closer. you should never draft a closer in the first two rounds. that's just dumb. yes he's good, but not based on where he's being drafted.


Gagne is a 4-category stud. In leagues without an innings limit, you're right, don't draft him in the 2nd round, wait til the 3rd or 4th. Without an inning limit, he's only a 3 and a half category stud.

With an innings limit, his K's become a factor because of a high K/9 ratio. Which means you're using up less of your finite resources (innings) for the same amount of K's. His ERA Imp and WHIP Imp (which account for how much his ERA and WHIP help the average fantasy staff) are both in the top 5 for all pitchers (including starters, whose greater inning total boosts these stats), and SV's are self-explanatory.

Tell me again why you should never draft him in the 2nd round, but it's okay to take Prior in the 1st?
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Mar 09, 2004 2:53 pm

Steve Kemp wrote:Most Overrated is Abreu BY FAR...he's projected 140 picks before the likes of Mondesi, Sanders, Encanarcion...yet he hit 20hr's and stole 20 bags. So is 15avg points and 15 rbi's worth 140 picks...no friggin' way.

Cornbread, how can BBoone be overrated? He's in the thinnest position and he goes .300, 35hr, 100+RBI and 15-20 SB's. How can you overrate that?

If anything, Nomar is underrated. He goes .330 and 30+hr's from SS...AND he's running now. Jeter is the guy that's overrated fantasy wise.

Payton, I personally like him, but can see why people don't

Beckett - all i can say is that he's never won more than 10 games


Most of this post is very innaccurate.

Everybody except the #1 player in drafts can be over-rated, no matter how good they are. That includes Boone. He's very good at a shallow position, but if he turns out to be the 20th best player considering position scarcity this season, and he's consistently drafted 10th to 14th, he'd be over-rated. Over-rated doesn't mean bad, which is what you seem to think it means.

Nomar hits .330 and hits 30 HR? Really? Well he's never done that in his career, and he also hasn't even hit above .310 in 4 years, let alone .330, and hasn't hit 30 HR's in 6 years. The past 4 seasons he's averaged 7 SB's per year. Not somebody I want to rely on for speed.

As for Payton, he did hit more HR away from Coors for some reason. But a 30% drop in runs, 20% drop in RBI, and 40 point lower BA doesn't convince me the Coors effect wasn't a great helper. He'll be OK, but not great. There are lots of OF's who can get 80 R, 80 RBI, and hit .280 with no speed.

Beckett should be good, and if he gets rid of his blister problems he could be huge. So at least something you said was accurate.
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Re: mine...

Postby LBJackal » Tue Mar 09, 2004 2:57 pm

EugeneStyles wrote:
astimeexpires.com wrote:2. eric gagne- he's a freaking closer. you should never draft a closer in the first two rounds. that's just dumb. yes he's good, but not based on where he's being drafted.


Gagne is a 4-category stud. In leagues without an innings limit, you're right, don't draft him in the 2nd round, wait til the 3rd or 4th. Without an inning limit, he's only a 3 and a half category stud.

With an innings limit, his K's become a factor because of a high K/9 ratio. Which means you're using up less of your finite resources (innings) for the same amount of K's. His ERA Imp and WHIP Imp (which account for how much his ERA and WHIP help the average fantasy staff) are both in the top 5 for all pitchers (including starters, whose greater inning total boosts these stats), and SV's are self-explanatory.

Tell me again why you should never draft him in the 2nd round, but it's okay to take Prior in the 1st?


Good points about Gagne, Eugene. And thanks for introducing me to ERA Imp and WHIP Imp at the end of last season ;-D

Gagne is easily a 4 category stud in IP limit leagues, which are what most people here play. He's due for a decline, because I doubt he can repeat what he did last year, but he is awesome and is definately worth being taken in the 2nd round.
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Postby astimeexpires.com » Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:01 pm

prior pitches more innings so it'll affect your overall team whip more than gagnes will (less innings thus it has less impact). plus there is a bigger gap between prior and someone you'd get in the fourth round as a starter than there is between gagne and a closer you'd get in the fourth.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:05 pm

You don't understand what ERA/WHIP Imp are then. It indicates how much a pitchers ERA/WHIP will affect your overall team's ERA/WHIP relative to the amount of IP he gives you. Even with his low IP, Gagne still helps your team in those categories as much as moslty everybody else, except for a few. He is a 4 category stud, there's no denying it.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:06 pm

Steve Kemp wrote:Most Overrated is Abreu BY FAR...he's projected 140 picks before the likes of Mondesi, Sanders, Encanarcion...yet he hit 20hr's and stole 20 bags. So is 15avg points and 15 rbi's worth 140 picks...no friggin' way.


I think you have it the other way around. think Mondesi and Sanders are underrated fantasy baseball wise.
Last years rank by $ for OF
Abreu #13
Sanders# 22
Mondesi# 33

I don't see Juan Encarnacion matching last year's numbers.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:10 pm

LBJackal wrote:
Steve Kemp wrote:Most Overrated is Abreu BY FAR...he's projected 140 picks before the likes of Mondesi, Sanders, Encanarcion...yet he hit 20hr's and stole 20 bags. So is 15avg points and 15 rbi's worth 140 picks...no friggin' way.

Cornbread, how can BBoone be overrated? He's in the thinnest position and he goes .300, 35hr, 100+RBI and 15-20 SB's. How can you overrate that?

If anything, Nomar is underrated. He goes .330 and 30+hr's from SS...AND he's running now. Jeter is the guy that's overrated fantasy wise.

Payton, I personally like him, but can see why people don't

Beckett - all i can say is that he's never won more than 10 games


Most of this post is very innaccurate.

Everybody except the #1 player in drafts can be over-rated, no matter how good they are. That includes Boone. He's very good at a shallow position, but if he turns out to be the 20th best player considering position scarcity this season, and he's consistently drafted 10th to 14th, he'd be over-rated. Over-rated doesn't mean bad, which is what you seem to think it means.

Nomar hits .330 and hits 30 HR? Really? Well he's never done that in his career, and he also hasn't even hit above .310 in 4 years, let alone .330, and hasn't hit 30 HR's in 6 years. The past 4 seasons he's averaged 7 SB's per year. Not somebody I want to rely on for speed.

As for Payton, he did hit more HR away from Coors for some reason. But a 30% drop in runs, 20% drop in RBI, and 40 point lower BA doesn't convince me the Coors effect wasn't a great helper. He'll be OK, but not great. There are lots of OF's who can get 80 R, 80 RBI, and hit .280 with no speed.

Beckett should be good, and if he gets rid of his blister problems he could be huge. So at least something you said was accurate.


For somebody who misuses stats more than anybody else on this site, you have a lot of guts to criticize his post.

Nomar hit .372 in 2000 (that is 4 years ago and it is above .330).

Why do you use a 4 year average for Nomar? funny? That is because he stole 2000 5 2001 0 2002 5 2003 19. You used the past 4 years because that gave you the lowest possible number. The guys said that "he is running now" - and Nomar did steal 19 bags last year. He never said that he was going to "rely on (Nomar) for speed".

You constantly misquote people and misuse stats.

You are a classic example of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing.

And yes a #1 pick can be overvalued. If Nomar is the top producer at $40 worth of production and you spent $45 on him, then you overvalued him.
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Postby EugeneStyles » Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:31 pm

Here are the top 25 (?) pitchers of last year, sorted by ERA Imp. As you can see, Gagne is 4th in ERA Imp, and 2nd in WHIP Imp, ahead of Prior in both categories. And this is true for leagues without inning limits. *With* inning limits, Gagne helps your team ERA almost as much as Pedro, without using up as many innings.

Of course, this all assumes that you think Gagne can repeat. But if you think his stats will be even close to last year's, there's no reason not to see him as a 4 category stud.


<pre>
ERA Imp WHIP Imp
P.Martinez-0.181 -0.025 SP
J.Schmidt -0.177 -0.043 SP
K.Brown -0.171 -0.010 SP
E.Gagne -0.166 -0.039 RP
M.Prior -0.164 -0.017 SP
J.Smoltz -0.137 -0.020 RP
GMota -0.134 -0.020 RP
D.Marte -0.132 -0.011 RP
R.Cormier -0.131 -0.021 RP
S.Hasegawa-0.130 -0.007 RP
T.Hudson -0.129 -0.025 SP
B.Wagner -0.127 -0.026 RP
B.Donnelly-0.124 -0.009 SP
M.Rivera -0.113 -0.013 RP
L.Hawkins -0.109 -0.008 RP
K.Foulke -0.103 -0.025 RP
R.Soriano -0.093 -0.021 RP
E.Loaiza -0.085 -0.016 SP
B.Webb -0.080 -0.007 SP
O.Dotel -0.071 -0.018 RP
S.Shields -0.066 -0.001 RP
C.Schilling-0.059 -0.021 SP
H.Nomo -0.048 +0.010 SP
J.Borowski-0.047 -0.010 RP

</pre>
<p>
Last edited by EugeneStyles on Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:34 pm

Moookie4ever wrote:For somebody who misuses stats more than anybody else on this site, you have a lot of guts to criticize his post.

Nomar hit .372 in 2000 (that is 4 years ago and it is above .330).

Why do you use a 4 year average for Nomar? funny? That is because he stole 2000 5 2001 0 2002 5 2003 19. You used the past 4 years because that gave you the lowest possible number. The guys said that "he is running now" - and Nomar did steal 19 bags last year. He never said that he was going to "rely on (Nomar) for speed".

You constantly misquote people and misuse stats.

You are a classic example of a little knowledge being a dangerous thing.


And yes a #1 pick can be overvalued. If Nomar is the top producer at $40 worth of production and you spent $45 on him, then you overvalued him.


First of all mostly everything he wrote in his post was false. Second of all, here is my reply, colour coded so you don't misquote me:

He hasn't done it in 4 years, I worded it wrong, but still he hasn't done it since 2000. My point was right, I just mis-worded it.

He implied that his speed is a reason to say he's under-rated. He isn't. Before last year he stole 5, 0, and 5 bases. He's combining his SB's from 2003, his BA from 2000, and his HR from 1997 to come up with this bionic-player.

I don't see you with too many good opinions on anything. At least I can back my opinions up with stats. How can you claim lack of knowledge or misuse of stats? I don't know what you're problem is, but you seem very ignorant to the fact that I have good points and want to bash me for no apparent reason.

I said "Everybody except the #1 player in drafts can be over-rated, no matter how good they are." Nothing about dollar values or auctions. Talk about mis-quoting somebody........you're one to talk. You've misquoted me twice in the past few hours. Maybe you should state your opinion and back it up with facts before you bash others who do it. At least I have the balls to give opinions and show my reasoning.
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Postby astimeexpires.com » Tue Mar 09, 2004 3:38 pm

i was mistaken on the how they calculate team whip. sorry about the error. regardless, i still dont like taking a closer in round 2.
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