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by **Tigers1223** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:52 pm

Why is Manny a projected 3rd rounder in most drafts and ADPs? I realize there is some risk that he may flake out and put up crap numbers, but he can obviously still put up 1st round stats. He is a little weak in the SB cat, but he is more that capable of a 100/35+/110/.300-.315 season, which is at least 2nd round material with upside of 100/35-45/120/.300. In my h2h league that is very tempting to go after in the 2nd round. Thoughts?

by **bigh0rt** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:53 pm

Tigers1223 wrote:Why is Manny a projected 3rd rounder in most drafts and ADPs? I realize there is some risk that he may flake out and put up crap numbers, but he can obviously still put up 1st round stats. He is a little weak in the SB cat, but he is more that capable of a 100/35+/110/.300-.315 season, which is at least 2nd round material with upside of 100/35-45/120/.300. In my h2h league that is very tempting to go after in the 2nd round. Thoughts?

Until a few days ago he didn't even have a team.

by **jake_twothousandfive** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:59 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Until a few days ago he didn't even have a team.

Yeah, no kidding. The guy was going in the 3rd or 4th round of drafts despite not having a team. No one forgot about him. He'll start going a bit higher now that we all know where he stands.

He's a solid late 2nd round or 3rd round pick.

by **horatio** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:08 pm

He's a solid late 2nd round or 3rd round pick.

Yep, I"ve got him ranked right in front of Carlos Lee.

by **Ender** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:16 pm

His value depended a lot on where he signed. Manny in San Fran is a lot less valuable than in LAD.

Having said that, signing with the Dodgers makes him an easy 2nd round pick for me. Fenway suppressed his power with the deep gaps, Dodger stadium is more or less the perfect park for him.

Here is a quote from an article that ran on Feb 5th at http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/02/

A popular image exists of the Green Monster adding lots of extra-base hits to a hitter’s total by turning shallow fly balls into wall-scraping doubles, but this hasn’t been the case for Manny: in the three seasons 2006-08, Manny only hit 6 doubles at Fenway that would have been outs at Dodger Stadium. Over the same period, Manny hit 23 flyouts, 5 doubles and 1 triple at Fenway that would have been home runs at Dodger Stadium.

Those results were found using Hit Tracker. Manny will be a monster this year if he stays healthy.