BronXBombers51 wrote:6-9 weeks sounds more like an early-May return, probably mid-May at the latest. That's not 1/3 of the season.
If you want to be more precise about it, and assume that 6-9 weeks is all an equal possibility, then you have him missing 7.5 weeks, so the first month of the season, or 1/6, so 16 2/3%. Then if you add in the tail 10-15% probability of not having a full recovery, you end up 26 2/3% - 31 2/3% so closer to a quarter on the optimistic side and very nearly a 1/3 on the pessimistic side. Given that he may need some time in AAA, I would say 1/3 reduction in value is a good rule of thumb.