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Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby Matthias » Sun Mar 08, 2009 12:37 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:6-9 weeks sounds more like an early-May return, probably mid-May at the latest. That's not 1/3 of the season.

If you want to be more precise about it, and assume that 6-9 weeks is all an equal possibility, then you have him missing 7.5 weeks, so the first month of the season, or 1/6, so 16 2/3%. Then if you add in the tail 10-15% probability of not having a full recovery, you end up 26 2/3% - 31 2/3% so closer to a quarter on the optimistic side and very nearly a 1/3 on the pessimistic side. Given that he may need some time in AAA, I would say 1/3 reduction in value is a good rule of thumb.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby rookies and cream » Sun Mar 08, 2009 12:47 pm

Even 2/3 ARod + 1/3 Kouz gives you 0.288 BA, 32 HR, 95 Runs, 104 RBI, 12 SB

Adding a guy like Kouz to your roster, who would normally be a CI/Util/Bench guy does not mean your "paying twice" for ARod.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby Matthias » Sun Mar 08, 2009 1:33 pm

rookies and cream wrote:Adding a guy like Kouz to your roster, who would normally be a CI/Util/Bench guy does not mean your "paying twice" for ARod.

Yes, it does. If you are adding Kouz to your roster and playing him at 3rd while A-Rod is out you then have to fill your CI/Util/Bench spot with a replacement-level player. So you can frame it however you want but at the end of the day, if you draft A-Rod, you have to stick in replacement-level production in his spot while he's out. And that directly reduces A-Rod's value on a straight-line basis.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby Matthias » Sun Mar 08, 2009 1:35 pm

rookies and cream wrote:Even 2/3 ARod + 1/3 Kouz gives you 0.288 BA, 32 HR, 95 Runs, 104 RBI, 12 SB

The proper way to do the projection is:

A-Rod's production for the time that he plays
plus
Replacement-level player production for the time that A-Rod does not play

Whatever that production equals, is the projection you should use for A-Rod when deciding to draft him.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby ayebatter » Sun Mar 08, 2009 1:41 pm

ayebatter wrote:1st round - you need him to produce a full seasons worth of numbers..Pass :-o
2nd round pick - you would like to have close to a full seasons numbers..Push :-?
3rd round pick - you could win your league with close to a full seasons numbers..Pick ;-)



In light of the latest news :

4th round pick - you have a great value for 16-20 weeks of production. But you won't get him here.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby Sevon » Sun Mar 08, 2009 2:40 pm

Well, it all makes sense. Arod doesn't have to potentially play through pain and he possibly dodges some of the steroid backlash coming his way for a couple of months. It's a win-wins situation for him. But that's for another thread.

As has already been stated, Arod + replacement player is the way to look at this. The size of your league is the key to determining Arods value at this point. Who will you reliably be able to draft as the replacement player for the two months that Arod misses?

In the majority of leagues, I imagine he will go higher than the sharks are willing to bite. I can see him still going in the second round in my league, and that's too high for me to take him.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby horatio » Sun Mar 08, 2009 4:09 pm

He won't be on any of my teams, I wouldn't bite until the 5th or 6th.

Maybe I've seen that anti-steroid commercial of the crumbling marble athlete statue too many times but I think he's a pretty risk selection any earlier than that.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby High and Inside » Fri Mar 13, 2009 11:20 pm

BUMPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP :-D
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