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Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby Matthias » Sat Mar 07, 2009 1:54 pm

There's a couple ways to address this semi-systematically.

The first is to take his pre-injury projected value and then discount it for the risk of injury. So if you had him as a $40 player, reduce that by the time that he might miss (say 40% of the season) which is also discounted by the probability that it might happen (this is the tough one; I haven't seen any numbers on this). So if you knew he was going to miss 40% of the season but perform perfectly fine otherwise, he'd become a $24 player. If you think, for whatever reason, that his chance of missing time was 50% then he'd be a $32 player. Then you can slot him into your player rankings and see where he lands.

Somewhat less systematically, you can look at the players you'll be passing up and seeing who you'd rather take.
Using the MDP spreadsheet (which uses a 12-man league):
1st-rounder: Tex is the last pick in this round. I definitely would rather have Tex than A-Rod and his injury concerns.
2nd-rounder: Prince Fielder/Manny Ramirez are the bookend 2nd/3rd round picks. I'd still like one of them over A-Rod.
3rd-rounder: Aramis Ramirez is the last pick in this round. Call me cautious, but I'd also take Aramis over Alex at this point.
4th-rounder: Now you see names like Alex Rios, Brian McCann, and Russell Martin and are close to Curtis Granderson. These are the players who have performed well but you would have a shot at replacing their production with a good sleeper pick later. Some time around now is when I would take a flier.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby giambiformvp » Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:11 pm

Sevon wrote:I'm not so sure Arod has the testicular fortitude that Albert does... After seeing that arm slap back a few years ago, I can see him shutting it down mid-season if it starts to really flare up.

I passed on Pujols last year and played it safe. My team would have put up marginally better stats if I had taken him probably. But I slept better all season. And there is no guarantee that these two similar situations with Arod and Pujols will play out exactly the same.

Therefore, I will pass once again and won't be drafting Arod no matter where he falls.


You sure about that? One thing about A-Rod is that he plays. Go take a look at his games played in his career.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby Sevon » Sat Mar 07, 2009 6:33 pm

giambiformvp wrote:
You sure about that? One thing about A-Rod is that he plays. Go take a look at his games played in his career.


I'm not sure about anything. Arod is a physical specimen. But I don't recall him ever having a serious injury. At least not one to gauge this situation.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby BronXBombers51 » Sun Mar 08, 2009 11:59 am

Okay so now he's having hybrid surgery with 6-9 weeks recovery time. Doctor says he's 85-90% sure A-Rod will have no problems for the rest of the season after this surgery.

Now where do you have him ranked?
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby rookies and cream » Sun Mar 08, 2009 12:03 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:Okay so now he's having hybrid surgery with 6-9 weeks recovery time. Doctor says he's 85-90% sure A-Rod will have no problems for the rest of the season after this surgery.

Now where do you have him ranked?


Late first round - 10-12
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby Matthias » Sun Mar 08, 2009 12:15 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:Okay so now he's having hybrid surgery with 6-9 weeks recovery time. Doctor says he's 85-90% sure A-Rod will have no problems for the rest of the season after this surgery.

Now where do you have him ranked?

That means he should miss about 1/3 of the season so I'd say he becomes a $25 or so player or late 4th / early 5th.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby rookies and cream » Sun Mar 08, 2009 12:25 pm

Matthias wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:Okay so now he's having hybrid surgery with 6-9 weeks recovery time. Doctor says he's 85-90% sure A-Rod will have no problems for the rest of the season after this surgery.

Now where do you have him ranked?

That means he should miss about 1/3 of the season so I'd say he becomes a $25 or so player or late 4th / early 5th.


First of all, 1/3 of season is worst case scenario. Second, you have to account for the fact that you will be replacing ARod with another player. To me 75% ARod, 25% Kouzmanoff (for example) is worth significantly more than a 4/5 rounder. Didn't ARod miss about 6 weeks last season and still hit for 30/100/100?
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby BronXBombers51 » Sun Mar 08, 2009 12:29 pm

Matthias wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:Okay so now he's having hybrid surgery with 6-9 weeks recovery time. Doctor says he's 85-90% sure A-Rod will have no problems for the rest of the season after this surgery.

Now where do you have him ranked?

That means he should miss about 1/3 of the season so I'd say he becomes a $25 or so player or late 4th / early 5th.


6-9 weeks sounds more like an early-May return, probably mid-May at the latest. That's not 1/3 of the season.
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby AussieDodger » Sun Mar 08, 2009 12:31 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
Matthias wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:Okay so now he's having hybrid surgery with 6-9 weeks recovery time. Doctor says he's 85-90% sure A-Rod will have no problems for the rest of the season after this surgery.

Now where do you have him ranked?

That means he should miss about 1/3 of the season so I'd say he becomes a $25 or so player or late 4th / early 5th.


6-9 weeks sounds more like an early-May return, probably mid-May at the latest. That's not 1/3 of the season.


Is he really going to steal much after having half a hip operation?
Don't think so :-t

I wouldn't pick him in the first 3 rounds. :-t
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Re: Draft Coming up soon...Where do I take Arod?

Postby Matthias » Sun Mar 08, 2009 12:32 pm

rookies and cream wrote:
Matthias wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:Okay so now he's having hybrid surgery with 6-9 weeks recovery time. Doctor says he's 85-90% sure A-Rod will have no problems for the rest of the season after this surgery.

Now where do you have him ranked?

That means he should miss about 1/3 of the season so I'd say he becomes a $25 or so player or late 4th / early 5th.

First of all, 1/3 of season is worst case scenario. Second, you have to account for the fact that you will be replacing ARod with another player. To me 80% ARod, 20% Kouzmanoff (for example) is worth significantly more than a 4/5 rounder. Didn't ARod miss about 6 weeks last season and still hit for 30/100/100?

First, 6-9 weeks put you into late April or mid-May. Given that he'd have missed Spring Training and would really have to come up to speed, I don't think saying he's effectively out until the end of May is so horrible, especially if you have to price in the tail 10-15% possibility that he won't return to full strength.

Second, this is the wrong way to think about it. You're replacing A-Rod with a replacement-level player who in an auction, would have $0 of value. If you're drafting someone higher then you're paying twice for A-Rod's production. Really, mathematically the way it works is a linear reduction in auction value for all the time missed.

I still say late 4th / early 5th with a bump in a keeper league.
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