Trade: Arod For Atkins?

[MNotar91]

I have Arod and have been offered Garret Atkins for him. My league is a 5x5 Roto, no keeper or auction.

Keep Arod or pull the string on this trade?

Any advice would be appreciated.

[Fantasy Star]

Ah, the first rip off trade appears.......

[footballisbetter.com]

Ah, the first rip off trade appears.......

I agree. DONT do it. Pick up the hot bat of the WW until Arod is healthy.

[kidsilk]

NOO FREAKING WAY

[MNotar91]

Thanks for the quick responses. I rejected the trade earlier and he re-offered insisting Arod will be out long... Trying to rip me good obviously. Thanks again.

[Fantasy Star]

While it may be true he COULD be out for longer that 10 weeks, it's too early to be jumping the gun and dealing him for Garret Atkins.

[Kimbos Beard]

LOL....the A-Rod ripoff trades must be tearing through fantasy leagues everywhere.

Pass on it.

[RDD15]

I have Arod and have been offered Garret Atkins for him. My league is a 5x5 Roto, no keeper or auction.

Keep Arod or pull the string on this trade?

Any advice would be appreciated.

Let's actually go deep into this one and do the math to get an objective answer. I am going to assume 12 team using a CI spot for my math, and will use CHONE projections.

Arod- 111 runs, 39 HR, 116 RBI, 15 SB, 159/541 for .294 average

Atkins-85 runs, 22 HR, 101 RBI, 2 SB, 168/576 for .292 average

Now the wildcard here is how long A-Rod is out. Let's say that the original guesstimates happen to pass, and A-Rod is out until Mid-May. That is about 23% of the Yankees season. So we can multiply all of A-Rod's projections by .77 to get new expected numbers.

Arod post injury estimates- 85 runs, 30 HR, 89 RBI, 12 SB, 122/417 for .294 average.

You also will have the ability to plug in a replacement 3B in A-Rod's absence. In a 12 teamer with a CI spot, you might be looking at a guy like Mark DeRosa.

If we take the 23% of DeRosa's season that he will be subbing for A-Rod we get about 16 runs, 3 homers, 14 RBI, 1 SB, and 27/104 for .260.

Add 23% DeRosa to 77% ARod, and you get about this:

101 runs, 33 HR, 103 RBI, 13 SB, 149/521 for .286

Again, Atkins' numbers...

85 runs, 22 HR, 101 RBI, 2 SB, 168/576 for .292 average

So by doing this deal, you would lose 16 runs, 11 HR, 2 RBI, 11 SB, and you would gain 6 points of BA, and 55 AB's.

Closer deal than you might expect, but if A-Rod misses 6 weeks, you lose by doing this deal (in CHONE land anyhow). I would not do the deal right now under my hypothetical circumstances. Lots will depend on who is possibly available as a replacement, but the main deciding factor is how much time ARod is going to miss. None of us knows that answer right now, so you do not have enough information to cause you to part with a potential superstud player in my opinion.

[DaShiz23]

LOL....the A-Rod ripoff trades must be tearing through fantasy leagues everywhere.

Pass on it.

Yeah, you gotta pass.

On a side note; For all of you AROD owners, you could be able to get yourself a great deal if you play your cards right. It would be smart to play it safe and sit on him for awhile. BUT, if you can keep your ear to the ground, and see what possibilities come up regarding his health this season, you may be able to make a great deal trading a player who will only give you, say, a half of a season.
Luckily, I do not own him on my team, yet have only drafted one team so far. If I did have him, I would look to talk up AROD, and still try to get good value for him.

[MNotar91]

I have Arod and have been offered Garret Atkins for him. My league is a 5x5 Roto, no keeper or auction.

Keep Arod or pull the string on this trade?

Any advice would be appreciated.

Let's actually go deep into this one and do the math to get an objective answer. I am going to assume 12 team using a CI spot for my math, and will use CHONE projections.

Arod- 111 runs, 39 HR, 116 RBI, 15 SB, 159/541 for .294 average

Atkins-85 runs, 22 HR, 101 RBI, 2 SB, 168/576 for .292 average

Now the wildcard here is how long A-Rod is out. Let's say that the original guesstimates happen to pass, and A-Rod is out until Mid-May. That is about 23% of the Yankees season. So we can multiply all of A-Rod's projections by .77 to get new expected numbers.

Arod post injury estimates- 85 runs, 30 HR, 89 RBI, 12 SB, 122/417 for .294 average.

You also will have the ability to plug in a replacement 3B in A-Rod's absence. In a 12 teamer with a CI spot, you might be looking at a guy like Mark DeRosa.

If we take the 23% of DeRosa's season that he will be subbing for A-Rod we get about 16 runs, 3 homers, 14 RBI, 1 SB, and 27/104 for .260.

Add 23% DeRosa to 77% ARod, and you get about this:

101 runs, 33 HR, 103 RBI, 13 SB, 149/521 for .286

Again, Atkins' numbers...

85 runs, 22 HR, 101 RBI, 2 SB, 168/576 for .292 average

So by doing this deal, you would lose 16 runs, 11 HR, 2 RBI, 11 SB, and you would gain 6 points of BA, and 55 AB's.

Closer deal than you might expect, but if A-Rod misses 6 weeks, you lose by doing this deal (in CHONE land anyhow). I would not do the deal right now under my hypothetical circumstances. Lots will depend on who is possibly available as a replacement, but the main deciding factor is how much time ARod is going to miss. None of us knows that answer right now, so you do not have enough information to cause you to part with a potential superstud player in my opinion.

Great post and thanks for giving me a good picture. + Rep.