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Pre draft musings

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Pre draft musings

Postby horatio » Thu Mar 05, 2009 12:46 pm

1. Does ARod's hip concerns push him out of the 6 to be drafted?
2. Who do you take first, Utley or Kinsler? Both strike me as being injury risks but the payoff on either can be substantial.
3. Should I be worried about the health of Brandon Webb (got shelled in ST yesterday after struggling a touch in the second half last year) and Cole Hamels (extended season with the World Series victory).
4. Will Jake Peavy get than 12 wins.
5. Who's the best bet to bounce back to supremacy - Josh Beckett or John Lackey
6. Do you reach for Rollins in the late 1st early 2nd, or wait for one of the second tier options in round 8 or 9?
7. Who is the best 3rd tier 2b to perform at a 2nd tier level: Jose Lopez, Kelly Johnson, Robinson Cano, other?
8. Is Hideki Matsui primed for a rebound year or is he just too beat up?

WHIR ;-)
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Re: Pre draft musings

Postby horatio » Thu Mar 05, 2009 4:41 pm

Well I think we all know the answer to #1 now.
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Re: Pre draft musings

Postby JimmyBaseball » Thu Mar 05, 2009 5:39 pm

8. I expect big things from Godzillla!
"When I knocked a guy down, there was no second part to the story."

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Re: Pre draft musings

Postby jcook3127 » Thu Mar 05, 2009 7:00 pm

horatio wrote:1. Does ARod's hip concerns push him out of the 6 to be drafted?
2. Who do you take first, Utley or Kinsler? Both strike me as being injury risks but the payoff on either can be substantial.
3. Should I be worried about the health of Brandon Webb (got shelled in ST yesterday after struggling a touch in the second half last year) and Cole Hamels (extended season with the World Series victory).
4. Will Jake Peavy get than 12 wins.
5. Who's the best bet to bounce back to supremacy - Josh Beckett or John Lackey
6. Do you reach for Rollins in the late 1st early 2nd, or wait for one of the second tier options in round 8 or 9?
7. Who is the best 3rd tier 2b to perform at a 2nd tier level: Jose Lopez, Kelly Johnson, Robinson Cano, other?
8. Is Hideki Matsui primed for a rebound year or is he just too beat up?

WHIR ;-)


2. Everything that's been coming out of Philly has Utley being ready for opening day....every news blurb...he's doing good...he's on track...he's gonna make it...he feels fine....plus, he's as tough as they come...so if draft night rolls around and there has been no change to that status quo, he is still the #1 second basemen on my board.

3. Brandon Webb gets shelled every spring training, quite frankly....he's as consistent as they come at SP...you shouldn't dismiss these injury concerns...but if he's saying he feels fine, I will believe him...bad ST outings have been too common in his past to just link it to the injury...but obviously when it comes to drafting starting pitching early you always should be concerned about injuries...same goes for Hamels

4. Irrelevant to fantasy baseball draft preparation.

5. As a guy who has Lackey on his team year after year...the answer is Beckett....Beckett pitched a lot better than that 4 ERA indicated..he had some hit and strand rate issues in the second half which should regress to his norms...if they do, there is absolutely nothing stopping Beckett from a sub 3.5 ERA. Lackey will be Lackey...I'm not sure he wasn't the Same old Lackey last season....he got lucky in the first half last year but in the 2nd half his HR/Fly ball was 20%, which is well more than double any of his career norms...Lackey will be right around a 3.5-3.7 and he's very dependable...but the chances of returning to that 3.03 ERA before last season were slim. He's not THAT good.

6. Well, if you don't take Rollins...you don't take anybody in round 8 or 9. Yahoo actually got something right in their SS primer yesterday..if you don't see value in the big 3 or miss them, you should just wait and wait and wait...take Hardy or something...it doesn't really matter. Alexei Ramirez has to be one of the worst draft values in fantasy. As for Rollins himself...I love the guy, he's my favorite position player these days...but the raw numbers will not be worthy of a top 2 round selection. That said, I can understand him there simply because of the position concerns. He's good enough to get into that top tier, and once he's gone...it's a huge drop. If you buy into position scarcity (and, you should to some extent) then you can't really knock Rollins in the LATE first/early 2nd...because his numbers will bounce back a bit this season. But you take him knowing you're playing the value game, and not looking for the best raw numbers...

7. Either Cano or JLopez for this one....Cano isn't really showing us much of that upside he has...I'm seeing more of the same for Cano, with the only potential upgrades to Batting Average and Runs....but since he hits so low in NYY, he can't even maximize that..if he was in the 2 hole all year, I'd be very high on him regardless....but for how they use him, I don't think he's a great value this year.

8. 18/80/75 r/.285.....more than likely not worth your time, unfortunately
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
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Re: Pre draft musings

Postby horatio » Thu Mar 05, 2009 7:38 pm

Pretty much have to agree with everything you say cook although in regards to the those other shortstops in the top 3, you gotta be careful, my mock drafts suggest that 9th round is about as late as you want to push it to get yourself Young, Jeter, Peralta, Tulo, Drew, or Hardy, you gotta be real careful because personally, I don't want to be stuck with a Mike Aviles or Orlando Cabrera at SS.
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Re: Pre draft musings

Postby RAmst23 » Thu Mar 05, 2009 8:01 pm

1. I'm scared of Arod until more info comes out on wth he's gonna do.
2. Utley
3. Do not worry about established player's numbers in ST. Especially veteran pitchers. Especially this early in camp. Many of them are going to go out and just throw fastballs.

4. Probably.

skip a few

8. If the DH position is his, Matsui will give good returns this year. He's going late, and can provide good upside.
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Re: Pre draft musings

Postby The Artful Dodger » Thu Mar 05, 2009 8:31 pm

1. That's why you don't draft in February. :-b
2. Kinsler, because I was convinced when I read this.
3. No. Webb had a few hiccups, supposedly because of a "dead arm". Something to keep in mind, which is why I ranked Hamels ahead of him as a top 5 starter.
4. Wins are hard to predict, though with that offense, he'll probably get 13-14, at least that's what I'm hoping for.
5. Beckett. Last year's second half for Lackey was caused by a slight dropoff in movement and velocity, FWIW. Needless to say, Beckett is good if he's healthy.
6. I don't think an early 2nd is a big-time reach on Rollins, but it depends who's there at that pick on whether or not take Rollins.
7. I'll say Cano although he's continuously overvalued.
8. Matsui will have a decent season.
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