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Gordon upside vs Drew upside

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Re: Gordon upside vs Drew upside

Postby fezzik » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:00 pm

Ender wrote:For my money a breakout by Drew sees him worth about the same as what he earned last year. Just too much luck in his numbers. He is a player that I am avoiding because I can draft guys like Hardy or Peralta a number of rounds later and they have good chances to earn just as much.


First let me say you're one of the posters here whose baseball related posts I generally pay attention to, because they often offer some good insight. And I agree Hardy/Peralta can be had 2-3 rounds later, with solid SS production.

I was just wondering what peripherals of Drew made you see the luck in his numbers? His BABIP wasn't abnormally high (.326...perhaps a little high, which would imply a regression from a .291 AVG to something closer to .280...and that's assuming no improvement), he had 76 extra base hits (44 doubles, 11 triples, 21 HRs), and he really lit it up the second half of '08. His BB/K ratio I see as a bit of a concern, but he showed progressive improvement in that stat during the course of the season as well. The only thing I can think of is that much of his power was confined to a small sample size (September). Is there something I'm missing? Are there some stats/numbers I'm not looking at?
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Re: Gordon upside vs Drew upside

Postby Ender » Fri Mar 06, 2009 10:50 pm

It is mostly the AVG but lets take a real look at him if he hits .280 and I don't like the spike in HR/FB along with a drop in FB%. Batting leadoff he isn't likely to get more R+RBI than Hardy (2nd) or Peralta (middle of order somewhere). He doesn't steal bases so there is no significant advantage there. He doesn't hit for a higher AVG than Hardy at least and his k/BB indicates a decent chance his AVG is lower than Hardy. His 21 HR aren't any better than Hardy.

I don't see this huge breakthrough coming from him this year like some people do, the plate discipline just isn't there and without a lot of SB upside and with a low OBP while batting leadoff I just see HR as his only real path to a breakout right now.

I think Drew with drop 15-20 points of avg, maybe pick up a few extra runs and in the end be worth about the same as Hardy or Peralta but go 2-3 rounds earlier. My strategy on SS is pick the mid tier guy who drops the farthest and that is almost never Drew. I'll wait and take the Jeter, Young, Hardy, Peralta that sits around a few more rounds.
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Re: Gordon upside vs Drew upside

Postby fezzik » Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:15 pm

Ender wrote:It is mostly the AVG but lets take a real look at him if he hits .280 and I don't like the spike in HR/FB along with a drop in FB%. Batting leadoff he isn't likely to get more R+RBI than Hardy (2nd) or Peralta (middle of order somewhere). He doesn't steal bases so there is no significant advantage there. He doesn't hit for a higher AVG than Hardy at least and his k/BB indicates a decent chance his AVG is lower than Hardy. His 21 HR aren't any better than Hardy.

I don't see this huge breakthrough coming from him this year like some people do, the plate discipline just isn't there and without a lot of SB upside and with a low OBP while batting leadoff I just see HR as his only real path to a breakout right now.

I think Drew with drop 15-20 points of avg, maybe pick up a few extra runs and in the end be worth about the same as Hardy or Peralta but go 2-3 rounds earlier. My strategy on SS is pick the mid tier guy who drops the farthest and that is almost never Drew. I'll wait and take the Jeter, Young, Hardy, Peralta that sits around a few more rounds.


Ok, but every report/comment/article I've seen has Drew batting 3rd, which would put him in a prime position for offensive production...I agree that if he batted leadoff, he should be knocked down in peoples' rankings.

Personally, I think his big second half wasn't an aberration...he hit over .310 in each of the final three months of the season. I'm expecting improvements pretty much across the board with his stats, so that's probably where my high projections come from. Also, every league I'm in is playing with OPS as a sixth category, which simultaneously devalues SB's a little and increases the importance of power. His .900+ OPS after the break makes me :-L ... :-D
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Re: Gordon upside vs Drew upside

Postby Ender » Fri Mar 06, 2009 11:22 pm

Even batting 3rd I don't see a huge breakout though it does help somewhat. I just don't see a really strong reason to draft him 2-3 rounds over all the other guys who look just like him in that bunch. They are all batting in the top of the lineup somewhere, they all have 20-30ish HR+SB potential. Drew has more AVG downside than most of them. I'm not seeing a good reason to pick him instead of just waiting a little while.
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Re: Gordon upside vs Drew upside

Postby walkoffblast » Sat Mar 07, 2009 12:58 am

When evaluating Drew statistically it seems like many are ignoring his oustanding LD% which can be used to explain some of what people think is just luck. For example ender says he does not like that his FB% dropped and his HR/FB% went up. At face value I might buy into that but are you really going to penalize him for hitting so many line drives. His GB/FB ratio remained essentially constant. With such a high LD% his BABIP is supposed to be high as well. In any league that rewards slugging percentage in some shape or form Drew gets a nice bump in value.
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Re: Gordon upside vs Drew upside

Postby Ender » Sat Mar 07, 2009 11:10 am

LD% variation drives BABIP variation a lot. Look at a great hitter like Pujols, his LD% jumps around from 17% to 22.5% and usually explains the BABIP variations in general. LD% is driven by luck as much as skill.

Anyway I'm not saying Drew stinks or anything. I'm just saying that Jeter or Young could easily rebound enough to match him and Hardy and Peralta both have legit 30 HR potential and could match him. All of these guys have some sort of upside and Drew is going significantly ahead of the others in the drafts I'm seeing. That isn't where I think good value is, I'll take some other upside guy I like at another postion instead and take whatever scraps fall to me a couple rounds later.
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Re: Gordon upside vs Drew upside

Postby walkoffblast » Sun Mar 08, 2009 12:38 pm

I agree to an extent that as far as safe projections and value picks go peralta and hardy are probably better options in 5x5. However, their upsides are not near Drews. Thats why he is going a little earlier and if you do not buy into his possible breakout then you are right to not want him there.
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Re: Gordon upside vs Drew upside

Postby aberry33 » Sun Mar 08, 2009 10:47 pm

I was of the opinion that Drew would take another step forward this year. Possibly even a big step forward. They talk like he has all of this power potential but the way some of you guys talk you make it sound like you think he got close to his max potential last year. You really think he doesn't have much more in him?
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Re: Gordon upside vs Drew upside

Postby fezzik » Sun Mar 08, 2009 11:10 pm

aberry33 wrote:I was of the opinion that Drew would take another step forward this year. Possibly even a big step forward. They talk like he has all of this power potential but the way some of you guys talk you make it sound like you think he got close to his max potential last year. You really think he doesn't have much more in him?


I think he has more in him...I wouldn't be surprised if he had a line like .295, 95R, 25HR, 105RBI batting in the 3 hole. That's going to be on the high end of expectations you'll find for him around here, but I definitely feel he has the potential.

A more modest prediction would be .280, 85R, 20HR, 92RBI...but I expect him to exceed those numbers.
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Re: Gordon upside vs Drew upside

Postby J35J » Mon Mar 09, 2009 8:56 am

Yup, I'll just echo what Ender has said. Absolutely just wait and take who falls out of that tier of SS....the 4th - 11th rated SS are all very similar in value and there is no need to reach for any one of them.
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