A little walk by the BAY

[Doc19]

I am torn on whether this belongs here or in Draft, Keepers and Waivers forum, but since it is a strategy question I left it here...

Some background: I am in a 12-team ROTO 5x5 league that redrafts in 2+ weeks. This is a deep league with large roster sizes (C, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, OF x 5, UTIL x3, SP x 3, RP x 2, P x 3, BN x 7). Draft order was randomly already determined, and I have the #2 pick. The team that drafts #1 intends (at this time) to pick Pujols. Assuming I land Hanley with the #2 pick I have been trying to work on a stategy for picks #23 and #26. In mock drafts I had done, I end up taking OF with both those picks, and then usually miss out on most of the elite 1B, so I was going to try to target Morneau or Berkman at #23. One guy that I LOVE this year is Jason Bay, but I would have to probably reach a bit for him at #26, since he likely wont be there at the bouceback at #47. His current MDP according to Rookies n' Cream is #34.

My 2009 Jason Bay projections in that Boston lineup:

35 HR 112 RBI 10 SB .280 AVG 105 runs

Am I too high on the guy to be thinking of selecting him over similar ranked OF such as: Holliday, Quentin, C. Lee, Markakis, Manny, Crawford and Kemp? Please, someone, either knock some sense into me or tell me I'm not crazy.

[Chicago RedSox]

I think your projection is pretty good, but the HR's might be a bit high. I was thinking more like 30. Bay actually had a higher HR rate with PITT then he did with Boston, which is strange considering the extra protection boston offers.....
If I was you, I'd draft a C.Lee or a Manny, and then get Bay via trade down the road. But get him early, before he gets too hot and his value goes up. I would think you could trade C.Lee for Bay plus someone. Or if Manny is hot, you can trade him for Bay plus someone special.
Just my two cents...

[ayebatter]

All 3 of these should go long before Bay

Holliday
Quentin
C. Lee

and these 3 just ahead of him

Markakis
Crawford
Manny

[Omaha Red Sox]

I think your projection is pretty good, but the HR's might be a bit high. I was thinking more like 30. Bay actually had a higher HR rate with PITT then he did with Boston, which is strange considering the extra protection boston offers.....
If I was you, I'd draft a C.Lee or a Manny, and then get Bay via trade down the road. But get him early, before he gets too hot and his value goes up. I would think you could trade C.Lee for Bay plus someone. Or if Manny is hot, you can trade him for Bay plus someone special.
Just my two cents...

Yeah, I like this idea as well. I'm very high on Bay as well, and think your projection is pretty accurate. Might offer Lee or Manny for Bay plus a middle of the road pitcher with good variables but little else. Not a sexy guy, but someone that will help out your ratios.

[hot4tx]

Draft for the value, hope for the best and try to find some angle of why you need to give up value in a trade of your OF for Bay in order to get value at another position.

If neither works then you still likely ended up with the better player. Don't way overreach because of a mancrush or perceived value buy. Especially when you're reaching so much to get him you ruin the value you're hoping to get. Even if he performs up to your high projection you just break even.

[woodson_28]

If your gut tells you to go w/ Bay, then do it. However, I think it's way too early to draft him at your 3rd rd spot. If I were you, I would contact a few owners around the "projected" spot and try to work out a deal trading draft picks.

2 years ago, in my fantasy football draft, I had the #7 overall pick. I didn't like any of the players that were projected to go there, so instead of reaching for a guy, I traded the 1st rd pick away for a 2nd, 3rd rd pick and 8th.

[Doughhead]

I don't get why Bay doens't get more love. Maybe people are still wary after his awful 2007, or maybe he's just a low-profile kinda guy. But even reasonably conservative projections have putting him up .285, 30 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI, and 10 SBs. He also walks a lot, has a great home ballpark, lots of players getting on base, and good protection. He also should be even better as he adjusts to AL pitchers. I don't think it's that crazy to put him in the top 26 based on the across-the-board production and relative lack of risk he brings.