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value of batting average

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value of batting average

Postby mobzz » Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:11 am

Every year in my 5x5 10 teamer the league leader in average is right around .290. When comparing hitters how many SBs or HRs would you say .310 would be....what about .330?
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Re: value of batting average

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:31 am

huh?
how many SBs or HRs would you say .310 would be....what about .330
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Re: value of batting average

Postby TheRock » Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:48 am

BitterDodgerFan wrote:huh?
how many SBs or HRs would you say .310 would be....what about .330


Me understand question.

If you go here and plug in some numbers for a league setup, you'll get player values along with these nifty stats:
- BA has an average value of .285 with a std dev of .00778.
- SB average is 11, SD 11
- HR average is 22, SD 7.42

So to answer your question - a batting average of .310 is about 3.2 standard deviations above the mean (310 - 285)/7.78. A very good number. An equivalent for SBs would be 11 + (3.2 * 11) = ~46. In terms of HR, 22 + (3.2 * 7.42) = ~46.

.330 is left as an exercise for the reader. ;-D


*This does not account for # of ABs, which is a consideration.
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Re: value of batting average

Postby mobzz » Wed Mar 04, 2009 3:27 am

So you are saying average player hits .285 with 22 hrs and 11 steals. and that all three players below would be worth about the same?
a) .310 22 11
b) .285 22 46
c) .285 46 11
If I'm using your math right then I think I have been extremely undervaluing average all these years
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Re: value of batting average

Postby TheRock » Wed Mar 04, 2009 10:41 am

mobzz wrote:So you are saying average player hits .285 with 22 hrs and 11 steals. and that all three players below would be worth about the same?
a) .310 22 11
b) .285 22 46
c) .285 46 11
If I'm using your math right then I think I have been extremely undervaluing average all these years


It's complicated, but essentially yes. Ignoring runs and rbis,
a) .310 22 11 - Nick Markakis
b) .285 22 46 - Jimmy Rollins on a good year.
c) .285 46 11 - Prince Fielder

Now the value of BA varies a bit with your league setup. The more players taken, the less one player's awesome or horrific BA affects your team. BA is hard to project exactly, and of course throughout the season tends to fluctuate. A handful of extra hits can make a player's average shoot up, or if he goes into a small slump, it plummets. So you want to just account for that when drafting.

We've had discussions here recently re: the value of SB - is average and std dev an appropriate method of comparing them to other stats. We didn't really come up with an answer,and I don't know how this site uses their numbers in their evaluations.

So yes, a few extra points in batting average makes a player much more valuable to your team. That explains why anyone would use a roster spot on Christian Guzman.
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Re: value of batting average

Postby mbuser » Wed Mar 04, 2009 5:56 pm

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