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Boneheaded or Brilliant draft strategy?

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Boneheaded or Brilliant draft strategy?

Postby 4Pack » Tue Mar 03, 2009 11:13 pm

10 team private Yahoo H2H....pitching cats are as follows: W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, BSV, PC (that really threw me for a loop). No max innings or anything like that involved.

Friends and family league...9 years strong now. Commish the past few season has thrown in random cats and this season it is Blown Saves and Pitch Count. Question is....do I just punt both the Save and Blown Save categories and ignore closers in the draft? My thinking is....by punting both categories I am guaranteed to do no worse than tie the BSV category every week. Now considering that their will be weeks that my opponent does have a closer blow a save....I suspect that there will also be a few weeks that I even win that category. Throw in the possibility that a team can go an entire week without even getting a save even with closers...I may even tie the save category a couple times. So taking into account the 25 week H2H fantasy season...it is not unrealistic IMO to finish the year roughly at 7-20-23 (W-L-T) combined in those 2 categories. If I am figuring correctly...with the sheer amount of ties...then overall pct. would put the overall winning pct. right around the .500 mark in two categories that I did not even draft for.

Taking that into consideration....and using the 2-3 spots that I would normally use on closers...I would draft 2-3 extra SP's. With the extra pitchers.....I would have a significant potential edge I think in the W, K, and Pitch Count categories on a weekly basis. On average I would have 3-4 extra SP starts every week.

Unless my winning pct numbers are way off in the categories I am punting...I just do not see a drawback not drafting closers. BUT...I just have this gut feeling that I am missing something since this seems like too easy of a strategy.

Any opinions?
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Re: Boneheaded or Brilliant draft strategy?

Postby Jackie Treehorn » Tue Mar 03, 2009 11:52 pm

If anything, I would place more of an emphasis on elite closers that don't blow many saves. I see your hyposis about at least getting a tie in bs everyweek, but you also guarantee a loss everyweek in the save category, not a good idea imo. With no limit on innings pitched, I'd probably draft a top notch hitting lineup up till round 12 or so with a couple top closers mixed in there somewhere, then draft a bunch of pitchers in the second half of the draft that you can rotate in (or stream) to try to win the Wins and K's every week. Essentially, you should clean up in the offensive categories, and win W, SV, K, PC most weeks. I suspect with the solid closers, you'd do no worse than .500 in the BSV over the course of the season with that strategy as well.
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Re: Boneheaded or Brilliant draft strategy?

Postby Jackie Treehorn » Tue Mar 03, 2009 11:55 pm

Jackie Treehorn wrote:If anything, I would place more of an emphasis on elite closers that don't blow many saves. I see your hyposis about at least getting a tie in bs everyweek, but you also guarantee a loss everyweek in the save category, not a good idea imo. With no limit on innings pitched, I'd probably draft a top notch hitting lineup up till round 12 or so with a couple top closers mixed in there somewhere, then draft a bunch of pitchers in the second half of the draft that you can rotate in (or stream) to try to win the Wins and K's every week. Essentially, you should clean up in the offensive categories, and win W, SV, K, PC most weeks. I suspect with the solid closers, you'd do no worse than .500 in the BSV over the course of the season with that strategy as well.


I'm making an assumption, here, by the way, that PC means most pitches thrown. Not sure why, but I guess it could be least pitches thrown, too. I don't really see any logic, either way, in having that as a category.
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Re: Boneheaded or Brilliant draft strategy?

Postby jmurphy_j » Wed Mar 04, 2009 12:09 am

Not a terrible plan.

You will always lose the save category......You will almost always tie the BSV category (most of your opponants will bench their closers as soon as they reach 1 save to avoid incurring any BSV's)..... You will almost always win the PC category.....that works out to approx .500 over those 3 categories. Not a terrible position to be in.

In order to make this work, though. you need to make sure you load up on GOOD starting pitchers. Quantity isn't enough, you need quality. If you rely too much on mediocre guys, you will get killed in the era and whip categories, which defeats your goal. So you cant wait until the late rounds to find your SP's. And you should really try to stick to guys with good k's/9 rates. You really need to make sure that you can dominate both Wins and K's, and at least hold your own in ERA and WHIP to make this work.

Other than that, though, I don't think it's a terrible plan.
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Re: Boneheaded or Brilliant draft strategy?

Postby fezzik » Wed Mar 04, 2009 12:45 am

If you stream pitchers against someone who is not streaming, you will push in the pitching cats (winning K's, W's, PC as much as you lose S's, era, whip...and typically tie on BS because as was mentioned your opponent should just bench their RP's after their first save). So in theory, if your sole purpose in playing in this league is to win it and you aren't afraid about getting your leaguemates annoyed at you for streaming like a little punk ;-) , then you could load up on hitting for the first 10-12 rounds and draft a bunch of mediocre starting pitchers after that...and you should win the league unless others are drafting with the same strategy. But is that really how you want to win? Especially in a friends and family league? I understand if there is a bunch of money at stake, but... ;-)
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Re: Boneheaded or Brilliant draft strategy?

Postby 4Pack » Wed Mar 04, 2009 12:55 am

jmurphy_j wrote:Not a terrible plan.

You will always lose the save category......You will almost always tie the BSV category (most of your opponants will bench their closers as soon as they reach 1 save to avoid incurring any BSV's)..... You will almost always win the PC category.....that works out to approx .500 over those 3 categories. Not a terrible position to be in.

In order to make this work, though. you need to make sure you load up on GOOD starting pitchers. Quantity isn't enough, you need quality. If you rely too much on mediocre guys, you will get killed in the era and whip categories, which defeats your goal. So you cant wait until the late rounds to find your SP's. And you should really try to stick to guys with good k's/9 rates. You really need to make sure that you can dominate both Wins and K's, and at least hold your own in ERA and WHIP to make this work.

Other than that, though, I don't think it's a terrible plan.


My thoughts exactly. I would need a very solid pitching staff to pull this off and have done (I kid you not) 17 mock drafts so far to figure out the best way to go about building the right staff.
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Re: Boneheaded or Brilliant draft strategy?

Postby 4Pack » Wed Mar 04, 2009 12:59 am

fezzik wrote:If you stream pitchers against someone who is not streaming, you will push in the pitching cats (winning K's, W's, PC as much as you lose S's, era, whip...and typically tie on BS because as was mentioned your opponent should just bench their RP's after their first save). So in theory, if your sole purpose in playing in this league is to win it and you aren't afraid about getting your leaguemates annoyed at you for streaming like a little punk ;-) , then you could load up on hitting for the first 10-12 rounds and draft a bunch of mediocre starting pitchers after that...and you should win the league unless others are drafting with the same strategy. But is that really how you want to win? Especially in a friends and family league? I understand if there is a bunch of money at stake, but... ;-)


I will not be streaming pitchers though. That is not an option in our league as we had major problems (and pissed off managers) the first couple seasons because of pitcher streaming (and I was the manager leading the anti-streaming movement in the league).
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Re: Boneheaded or Brilliant draft strategy?

Postby jfg » Wed Mar 04, 2009 1:10 am

I'd watch to see what other owners are doing, because if a few people are doing it it could backfire. But, punting saves seems like the right thing to do in this league.
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Re: Boneheaded or Brilliant draft strategy?

Postby fezzik » Wed Mar 04, 2009 1:11 am

4Pack wrote:
fezzik wrote:If you stream pitchers against someone who is not streaming, you will push in the pitching cats (winning K's, W's, PC as much as you lose S's, era, whip...and typically tie on BS because as was mentioned your opponent should just bench their RP's after their first save). So in theory, if your sole purpose in playing in this league is to win it and you aren't afraid about getting your leaguemates annoyed at you for streaming like a little punk ;-) , then you could load up on hitting for the first 10-12 rounds and draft a bunch of mediocre starting pitchers after that...and you should win the league unless others are drafting with the same strategy. But is that really how you want to win? Especially in a friends and family league? I understand if there is a bunch of money at stake, but... ;-)


I will not be streaming pitchers though. That is not an option in our league as we had major problems (and pissed off managers) the first couple seasons because of pitcher streaming (and I was the manager leading the anti-streaming movement in the league).


Well that's good to hear. ;-D

It seems like it your strategy would be slightly beneficial...where you would typically take your closers, you should probably add some additional quality SP's while still drafting a solid offense. Then you should win K's, W's, and PC the majority of the time, tie on BS, lose in S's, and compete in era and whip. It could work out pretty good for you as long as you drafted more quality SP's than most managers.

Your worst nightmare would be an opponent who employed the same strategy as you, but drafted one closer late in the draft...so he would most likely win S's and tie on BS. It could work, but it could also backfire. ;-D
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Re: Boneheaded or Brilliant draft strategy?

Postby grover999 » Wed Mar 04, 2009 1:18 am

I'm not going to comment on the strategy, simply because I don't know, but I can comment on the winning %. Your winning % in those 2 cats would be 37% if you think you will go 7-20-23.
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