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The economy and it's outlook

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The economy and it's outlook

Postby hardcore » Mon Mar 02, 2009 6:10 pm

Today the dow went below 7k for the first time in 11 years. I'm Interested in people with a read on this economy What do you guys think?

Here's what my model shows

1.Recession ends by Spring summer 09. FIrst Qtr GDP should be a 5% hit.
2. Recovery lasts 6-9 months
3. Recession 2 starts in summer 2010 - I'm certain the 2010-2012 will be worse than 2008-09.
4. Recovery 2 starts in late 2011 with little growth, maybe 1-2% growth
4. The real recovery starts in 2012

Dows
I believe we are at or very close to the low for the year.
Another swoon into what will be the eventual low in 2010- Oct
A recovery into 2011, then another test of the 2010 low somewhere into 2012.
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Re: The economy and it's outlook

Postby markj11 » Mon Mar 02, 2009 6:11 pm

I'm all in.
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Re: The economy and it's outlook

Postby Yoda » Mon Mar 02, 2009 6:14 pm

I don't see the recovery being that quick. There are massive amounts of adjustable mortgages still out there and too many people still own homes that will lose them.

Wall Street is a bit of a joke right now. Everything negative people said about he stock market came to fruition in the last 12 months and it will take many more years before we even sniff recovery. The main problem now is that no one trusts each other.
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Re: The economy and it's outlook

Postby Art Vandelay » Mon Mar 02, 2009 6:15 pm

I've been stalking up on shoulder pads.
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Re: The economy and it's outlook

Postby Madison » Mon Mar 02, 2009 6:26 pm

Art Vandelay wrote:I've been stalking up on shoulder pads.


:-?

I think you mean "stocking" up? :-S


And here's a forum for all things Stock Market/Wall Street:

http://www.fantasycafe.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=41

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Re: The economy and it's outlook

Postby Art Vandelay » Mon Mar 02, 2009 6:29 pm

haha...yeah, I definitely meant "stocking." Gotta stop letting my hobbies seep into my subconscious.
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Re: The economy and it's outlook

Postby CheeseBeger » Mon Mar 02, 2009 6:56 pm

Everyone likes to speculate, but no one really knows. All I know is that I'm young and can ride it out so I'm going to continue buying every other week like I have been doing.
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Re: The economy and it's outlook

Postby CadensDad » Tue Mar 03, 2009 2:41 am

CheeseBeger wrote:Everyone likes to speculate, but no one really knows. All I know is that I'm young and can ride it out so I'm going to continue buying every other week like I have been doing.



Best advice yet
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Re: The economy and it's outlook

Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue Mar 03, 2009 9:32 am

CheeseBeger wrote:Everyone likes to speculate, but no one really knows. All I know is that I'm young and can ride it out so I'm going to continue buying every other week like I have been doing.


LOL...Greenman ;-D
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Re: The economy and it's outlook

Postby Curtis Pride » Tue Mar 03, 2009 10:40 am

It's kind of hard to put weight behind the opinion of someone who uses the DOW as a yardstick for the market's performance.

The Dow is pretty much meaningless.
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