Keeper Debacle *WHIR*

[stickkeys108]

With my draft less than two weeks away, I'm still currently in a keeper debacle. Here's the situation:

4 Keeper (2 Hitters and 2 Pitchers) (You lose the round the player was drafted in if you keep the player)
10 Team
Yahoo!
Roto
Very competitive

I've already decided on my pitchers: John Lackey (7th Round) and Dan Haren (9th Round).

I've also decided on one of my hitters: Justin Morneau (21st Round).

Up until yesterday, I was dead set on keeping Grady Sizemore (1st Round) as my other keeper. I've started to second guess that decision lately for a few reasons.

- Based on draft order (I came in 3rd last season), I would not have a pick until the draft snakes around into the 2nd Round. Based on some owners keeping first round picks, that means that I would have the 8th overall pick in the draft if I decided to keep Sizemore.

- If I threw Sizemore back, I would then have the 6th overall pick to go along with the 9th overall pick.

- If I did throw Sizemore back, then I would undoubtedly keep Matt Kemp (11th Round).

- My rationale would be that I would then be keeping a #2 OF with the opportunity to possibly draft Jimmy Rollins or Ian Kinsler with my first round pick and follow that up with a top tier OF in the 2nd.

Here are the Top 15 available hitters going into the draft as of now:

1. Ryan Howard
2. Mark Teixeira
3. Alfonso Soriano
4. Matt Holliday
5. Jimmy Rollins
6. Ian Kinsler
7. Lance Berkman
8. David Ortiz
9. Carlos Beltran
10. Aramis Ramirez
11. Prince Fielder
12. Manny Ramirez
13. Carl Crawford
14. Brandon Phillips
15. Carlos Lee
16. Nick Markakis
17. Vladimir Guerrero
18. Chipper Jones
19. Brian McCann
20. Ichiro

So, do I stick to my guns and keep Sizemore? Or, b/c I'm afraid of position scarcity, keep Kemp and go after others in the first two rounds?

[eric31216]

kemp in the 11th is a much better value than grady in the 1st. i would throw grady back and hope for either rollins or kinsler with your first pick.

i would imagine the 1st round unfolding something like

sizemore
howard
teix
rollins
kinsler

then some arrangement of holliday / soriano / prince / beltran / berkman

[rupertoooo]

I believe you should throw Sizemore back in the draft. I agree with you synopsis on how the first 5 selections will go.

Personally I would hope to acquire Beltran and Berkman. The closer the season gets the more I am being put off by Holliday. His splits are worrisome plus he is playing in one of the worst hitters parks in baseball. Oh yea the A's offense, case closed.

Kemp
Beltran
Berkman or Fielder

trumps

Sizemore
and whoever else

[BALCO All-Stars]

Keeper leagues are mainly all about value. There is little value in keeping Grady in the 1st (besides knowing that you get to keep Grady), but Kemp in the 11th round is great value (he's more or less a Sizemore-lite type of player anyway). Now you get to grab two studs with the 6th and 9th picks.

[b_rad82]

another vote for kemp in the 11th.