dragoon wrote:I'll be staying away from both in the draft, let the other owners worry about it.
I would normally have this thought process as well, but Marmol's upside fantasy-wise as a closer is tremendous, and his draft slot is a lot lower than many of the guys he should end up better than.
NZ Eff wrote:Gregg will close to start the season but I see him struggling in Chicago in that role. Marmol will take over at some point but both Gregg and Marmol will be over valued come draft day. I would stay away from both in standard leagues unless you get them in the later rounds.
NZ Eff wrote:Really? Not saying the Cubs aren't foolish but the Cubs got Gregg to close. He will be the closer on opening day barring injury.
I'm very curious at to where you're getting your information. The Cubs got Gregg to close? Is that a fact? He'll start the season as the closer? You must have Jim Hendry/Lou Piniella on speed dial.
It is my feeling, and the predominant feeling among other Cubs' fans I know, that this closer "competition" is a sham. Marmol is going to be the guy. He has the best stuff of anyone in that bullpen and he's going to be the closer. My opinion, of course, but I do follow the Cubs closely and this is the conclusion I've come to from reading between the lines.
I believe Gregg was brought in for a variety of reasons and one of them, IMO, is as a backup plan for closer if Marmol fails or gets hurt. On a day to day basis, though, I see him sliding into Marmol's setup role or possibly Bob Howry/Jeff Samardzija's 7th inning role (supposedly Samardzija is being given an opportunity to compete for the 5th starter spot and may go down to the minors to work as a starter if he doesn't win the job).
I can understand why anyone would shy away from Marmol or Gregg in a fantasy draft, but I'll draft Marmol with confidence as my closer, just like I did last year with Kerry Wood. I think it will pay off at least as well, if not better.
I don't think so. But I'd be a little more cautious now. Gregg is having a much better spring than Marmol, and if indeed this was a competition (as the Cub's have said), he has to be the frontrunner at this point.
I'd avoid Gregg, he was abused by the Angels and looks to be breaking down physically some. His K/9 is dropping, he dropped his change up last year and started throwing a lot more sliders which isn't a healthy thing to do at all.
I think Marmol is overrated but he is the better value out of these 2 even if he doesn't end up starting as the closer. Just be ready for an ERA over 3 from him.
garf112 wrote:he may be more useful elsewhere, but what team actually employs the theory of having a "relief ace?" It is a great idea, but until I see it actually happen...
The only example I can think of is the Angels doing this back in the Percival days. Troy Percival was the closer and Francisco Rodriguez was the setup/relief ace guy. Brought a lot of success to the Angels, even though Rodriguez was a better pitcher than Percival at that point.
As for Marmol vs. Gregg, I ditto a response above: If you draft Marmol, you sure as heck better pick up Gregg too.
Ender wrote:I'd avoid Gregg, he was abused by the Angels and looks to be breaking down physically some. His K/9 is dropping, he dropped his change up last year and started throwing a lot more sliders which isn't a healthy thing to do at all.
I think Marmol is overrated but he is the better value out of these 2 even if he doesn't end up starting as the closer. Just be ready for an ERA over 3 from him.
Agreed. I think Marmol is the better choice of the two, but I likely will end up with neither. Marmol's xFIP last year was 3.87, and I'm feeling that his '09 ERA will be closer to that than the 2.68 ERA he put up in '08. That freaky low .185 BABIP can't be sustained, and when you couple his high walk rate with a few more hits dropping in, both the WHIP and ERA will climb. I personally expect something along the lines of what PECOTA has him down for this year, which is a 3.40/1.25 line. Of course, there's nothing too terrible about that, still solid, especially when you consider the Ks he gets you too. But toss in the fact that he's no where near a lock to be the wire-to-wire closer for this team, and I just prefer to take some of the other options out there in his general draft tier (the more sure things like Fuentes, Wood, Cordero, etc).
"Marmol is coming off a terrible loss against the Netherlands which knocked the heavily favored Dominican Republic team out of the WBC. His manager Lou Piniella has already implied that how Marmol bounces back from that will say a lot about whether he has the right mentality to close. If it takes Marmol several outings to get his head on straight after the WBC debacle, there's a good chance Kevin Gregg will open the season as the closer.
As of right now, I'd still say Marmol is the slight favorite, but given the current cost of each player (Marmol is the 10th reliever off the board in Yahoo Leagues, while Gregg is the 40th), Gregg is the better gamble."
Scooter1027 wrote:Agreed. I think Marmol is the better choice of the two, but I likely will end up with neither. Marmol's xFIP last year was 3.87, and I'm feeling that his '09 ERA will be closer to that than the 2.68 ERA he put up in '08. That freaky low .185 BABIP can't be sustained, and when you couple his high walk rate with a few more hits dropping in, both the WHIP and ERA will climb. I personally expect something along the lines of what PECOTA has him down for this year, which is a 3.40/1.25 line. Of course, there's nothing too terrible about that, still solid, especially when you consider the Ks he gets you too. But toss in the fact that he's no where near a lock to be the wire-to-wire closer for this team, and I just prefer to take some of the other options out there in his general draft tier (the more sure things like Fuentes, Wood, Cordero, etc).
Well put. I've got the same approach as well.
Hal·la·day, n. 1. every fifth day in Philadelphia. 2. a day of rest for the bullpen. 3. innings eater. 4. doc. 5. ace.
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by DaShiz23 » Wed Feb 25, 2009 8:44 pm 
I've got the same approach as well.
