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alright so talk me off the cliff - re ADP

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alright so talk me off the cliff - re ADP

Postby horatio » Fri Feb 20, 2009 2:25 pm

There's been a lot of debate about picks 6-8 in the first round, typically you'll see some order of MCab, Braun, Sizemore.

But looking at ADP, what do you all think of going with Utley not soon after after pick #5?

Obviously the hip surgery is a concern, but in my mind he's one of the top hitters in the game at a position that is pretty shallow in a solid lineup assuming your picking somewhere in the 6 to 8 spot Utley probably wouldn't be there in the 2nd round.

Looking at ADP's, I think I could potentially put together a squad that looks like this after the first 8 rounds.

1. Utley
2. Soriano
3. Ortiz
4. Peavy
5. Haren
6. Chris Davis
7. Ludwick
8. Peralta.

I'd most likely grab a closer in round 9 & 10, then take Sandoval at 11 for a catcher, giving me a what in my mind is an extremely solid core, albeit not real strong in stolen bases.

Given that do y'all think I"m crazy for maybe considering Utley before MCab, Braun, and Sizemore?

I like Davis at 6 if he's still there because he's projected to hit over 35 HRs in a solid Texas lineup and his multiposition eligibility would give me the 1b/3b flexibilty in the late rounds to pickup whoever is left of Beltre, Adam Laroche, Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, or Konerko, and my final OF spot could be filled with a late round flier or the flavor of the week as the season goes.

Just working on a theory.
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Re: alright so talk me off the cliff - re ADP

Postby The Artful Dodger » Fri Feb 20, 2009 2:38 pm

It's one thing for Utley to work out with no ill effects on the hip, but another to be effective once the season starts. At this point, it's enough to drive Utley down a bit in favor of M-Cab, Sizemore, Braun, and Teixeira, all four of whom I think are steady bets to produce. After those four are off, it's a crapshoot in my mind between Howard, Hamilton, Utley, and Kinsler. I think in spite of the probability of a slow April, Utley will at least be as good to replicate his 2008 line.

Another thing, I think Ortiz is a bit risky in round 3 (round 4, I'd take a chance respective to the draft pool though) while I think Haren's going to pan out as a late 4th rounder.
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Re: alright so talk me off the cliff - re ADP

Postby Maris09 » Fri Feb 20, 2009 2:44 pm

Out of the guys you listed, I only like Utley and Davis.
Ortiz seems risky, Peralta in the 8th is early, Sandoval (while I like him) is way early in the 11th, and I'm not a fan of taking SP's as early as you mentioned.
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Re: alright so talk me off the cliff - re ADP

Postby horatio » Fri Feb 20, 2009 3:49 pm

Thanks guy, definitely agree with you on your good points. Yeah Ortiz and Peralta would be considered reaches at those spots, although I don't necessarily mind reaching for Peralta in the 8th because mocks seem to indicate a SS run starting usually late 8th through the 9th, and seriously, you don't want to be left holding the bag after Jeter, Hardy, Tulo, and maybe Drew are gone, you'd be left with Avilez or OCab.

Ortiz is a reach in the 3rd but there's no arguing the upside there - 100 38 125 .300 possibly.

I agree that Haren likely won't make it to the mid 5th round either, be nice to get him there.

It's all just an exercise, but I guess the primary conundrum is would you rather end up with Miguel Cabrera and the late round scrubs at 2nd (you might get Kelly Johnson or Jose Lopez, but I feel there's less of a chance they outperform their ADPs) as opposed to Utley and then like I said earlier, some of the late round 1b or 3b options like Beltre, Reynolds, Laroche, Conor Jackson, or Konerko.
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Re: alright so talk me off the cliff - re ADP

Postby horatio » Fri Feb 20, 2009 3:51 pm

oh and Sandoval might be a reach in round 11, but after Doumit's gone I'd really want him, you figure a guy who can potentially get you 500 or more ABs sitting in the catcher spot, he's getting a lot of hype lately so if you want to make you sure get him it seems you just might have to reach a little sooner than you'd like, it'll be interesting to see if he's taken before Iannetta or not.
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Re: alright so talk me off the cliff - re ADP

Postby J35J » Fri Feb 20, 2009 4:49 pm

Utley's on the wrong side of 30 with hip issues. While he may be ready by opening day doesn't guarantee that he'll be 100% or in full shape to produce like we are used to seeing right out of the gate(like AD pointed out)....I'm not touching him in the first 20 picks personally. You don't need Utley to win your league...let someone else worry about him, IMO.
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Re: alright so talk me off the cliff - re ADP

Postby Maris09 » Fri Feb 20, 2009 5:08 pm

horatio wrote:oh and Sandoval might be a reach in round 11, but after Doumit's gone I'd really want him, you figure a guy who can potentially get you 500 or more ABs sitting in the catcher spot, he's getting a lot of hype lately so if you want to make you sure get him it seems you just might have to reach a little sooner than you'd like, it'll be interesting to see if he's taken before Iannetta or not.

I totally agree, really like Sandoval, but unless you live in the Bay Area or something, RD 11 is too early. His Yahoo ranking is 233, which in a 12 teamer is roughly the 19th round. I think the 15th or so is safe to grab him at. If he goes any earlier than that, then he doesn't provide that value which makes him a good pick.

Edit: Just checked and Sandoval has been going around pick 195 (RD 16.8)
I'd say round 14 should be good to get him.
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Re: alright so talk me off the cliff - re ADP

Postby Shock6822 » Fri Feb 20, 2009 6:37 pm

I think MCab/Braun/Size will have bettre stats straight up than Utley, and your first 3 rounds have durability concerns...which is my pet peeve. I have Ortiz and Soriano lower on my board for this very reason.
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Re: alright so talk me off the cliff - re ADP

Postby CadensDad » Sat Feb 21, 2009 2:32 am

2b is not that shallow anymore,

7 2b finished in the top 100 on yahoo last year,
2 more (Alexi and Phillips) could have broke into the top 100 had it not been for more AB's or injury

4 of those 2b where in the top 50
2 of them in the top 20

I just don't buy into 2b being shallow
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Re: alright so talk me off the cliff - re ADP

Postby DaShiz23 » Sat Feb 21, 2009 7:24 am

CadensDad wrote:2b is not that shallow anymore,

7 2b finished in the top 100 on yahoo last year,
2 more (Alexi and Phillips) could have broke into the top 100 had it not been for more AB's or injury

4 of those 2b where in the top 50
2 of them in the top 20

I just don't buy into 2b being shallow

me either. I 'de-value' the two top 2B just a bit because of where the next tier can be had, and the upside that can be had after them.
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