stevethumb wrote:i think that it is an exercise in futility to attempt to identify true half season consistent performers..
of the 750+ major leaguers each year, there may be 2 or 3 that show any 3 year half season consistency..and what is the cut off ? all star break, july 1st, the 82nd game of the season ? i think shandler has an article on this in which there was a 3 yr study of pitchers and only 5% of all showed consistency in any one category (when stretched to a 4th yr it was 1% in any one cat) and in hitters it was 3% who demonstarted consistent tendencies in 2 categories over a 3 yr period
I agree. I've seen no good evidence that past 1st half/2nd half performance predicts future performance, so I'd be leery of this strategy. If anyone knows of a good reference demonstrating its value, I'd like to see it.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."