I'm pretty sure the consensus top 5 is Arod, Hanley, Pujols, Wright and Reyes in some order. However, I feel like there's a muddle between picks 6-8 with these 3 guys. What order do you put them in, and better yet, why? I'm leaning Braun/Sizemore/MCab for a couple reasons. One, Braun is the youngest guy there I believe, and put up solid stats in all 5 cats. Sizemore gets you many more SB, but kills your average comparably. MCab lags behind in runs and way behind in SB, and doesn't make up much for it in avg (I'm using last year's stats...new league and all). I am, however, debating Sizemore over Braun in an H2H, since the avg hit may not be as bad there as a roto. Thoughts?
I'd likely go Braun, Miggy, Sizemore. I like Sizemore and all, but those lower average hitters have more extended ups and downs. Guys like Carlos Beltran and Soriano bounce around from 1st to 3rd round depending on how they did the year before. While I'd much rather have the younger Sizemore than these two guys, I'm saying that I expect Sizemore to have more fluctuation in his stats from year to year than other guys, much like Soriano and Beltran have done. So I knock Sizemore down just a touch for that and would rather take Miggy than him.
Of course none of these three would be a "wrong answer" as they're all three studs. I could see someone taking Sizemore earlier hoping he continues to develop power and keeps running just as much. I just wouldn't.
Possibly Miggy over all three simply because he has 1b and 3b eligibility; I always feel OF is a pretty deep position wheras 3b this year is not. I'd also expect Miggy's average to go up a good bit based on his previous seasons. somewhere in the .310-.315 range is safe, making him worth a little more there as well.
I've been doing some mocks and I have found that I have more problems filling IF spots later in the draft than I do OF spots. I also believe that Miggy is going to have a huge, huge year this year (just a hunch) and therefore would be tempted to Cabrera.