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Predicting BA's Top 100

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Predicting BA's Top 100

Postby rhd » Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:40 am

BA will be coming out w its Top 100 Prospects this week (Thursday, I think). I think it's fun to predict what it will look like. I've compiled a projected BA Top 100 based on their League Top 20's, Team Top 10's and what I've heard people like Jim Callis and John Manuel say in online chats and podcasts. Every organization has at least 1 guy on the list, even Houston. TExas has 9, which would be the most I can remember from any organization ever. Also, Oakland has 8.

1 David Price SP TB
2 Matt Wieters C Bal
3 Madison Bumgarner SP SF
4 Colby Rasmus OF StL
5 Buster Posey C SF
6 Pedro Alvarez 3B Pit
7 Neftali Feliz SP Tex
8 Tommy Hanson SP Atl
9 Travis Snider OF Tor
10 Jason Heyward OF Atl
11 Rick Porcello SP Det
12 Cameron Maybin OF Fla
13 Tim Beckham SS TB
14 Brett Anderson SP Oak
15 Trevor Cahill SP Oak
16 Dexter Fowler OF Col
17 Mike Moustakas 3B KC
18 Eric Hosmer 1B KC
19 Matt LaPorta OF Cle
20 Jarrod Parker SP Ari
21 Lars Anderson 1B Bos
22 Justin Smoak 1B Tex
23 Brett Wallace 3B StL
24 Andrew McCutchen OF Pit
25 Carlos Santana C Cle
26 Brian Matusz SP Bal
27 Logan Morrison 1B Fla
28 Mike Stanton OF Fla
29 Fernando Martinez OF NYM
30 Josh Vitters 3B CHC
31 Gordon Beckham SS CHW
32 Michael Bowden SP Bos
33 Derek Holland SP Tex
34 Chris Tillman SP Bal
35 Yonder Alonso 1B Cin
36 Angel Villalona 1B SF
37 Aaron Hicks OF Min
38 Elvis Andrus SS Tex
39 Alcides Escobar SS Mil
40 Matt Gamel 3B Mil
41 Wade Davis SP TB
42 Tim Alderson SP SF
43 Jordan Schafer OF Atl
44 Jesus Montero C NYY
45 Jhoulys Chacin SP Col
46 Jordan Zimmerman SP Was
47 Michael Inoa SP Oak
48 Greg Halman OF Sea
49 Michael Saunders OF Sea
50 Austin Jackson OF NYY
51 Ben Revere OF Min
52 Nick Adenhart SP LAA
53 Jake Arrieta SP Bal
54 Matt Dominguez 3B Fla
55 Reid Brignac SS TB
56 Carlos Carrasco SP Phi
57 Daniel Cortes SP KC
58 Carlos Triunfel SS Sea
59 Brett Cecil SP Tor
60 Jose Tabata OF Pit
61 Desmond Jennings OF TB
62 Wilmer Flores SS NYM
63 Freddie Freeman 1B Atl
64 Kyle Blanks 1B SD
65 Sean West SP Fla
66 Taylor Teagarden C Tex
67 J.P. Arencibia C Tor
68 Dayan Viciedo 3B CHW
69 Adrian Cardenas SS Oak
70 Chris Carter 1B Oak
71 Kyle Skipworth C Fla
72 Gorkys Hernandez OF Atl
73 Dominic Brown OF Phi
74 Jeremy Jeffress SP Mil
75 Phillippe Aumont SP Sea
76 Martin Perez SP Tex
77 Brett Lawrie C Mil
78 Andrew Lambo OF LAD
79 Chris Perez RP StL
80 Engel Beltre OF Tex
81 Gio Gonzalez SP Oak
82 Chris Marrero 1B Was
83 Nick Weglarz OF Cle
84 Aaron Cunningham OF Oak
85 Jordan Walden SP LAA
86 James McDonald SP LAD
87 Michael Main SP Tex
88 Adam Miller SP/RP Cle
89 Julio Borbon OF Tex
90 Andrew Brackman SP NYY
91 Nick Hagadone SP/RP Bos
92 Daniel Bard SP/RP Bos
93 Jason Castro C Hou
94 Mike Montgomery SP KC
95 Matthew Moore SP TB
96 Tim Melville SP KC
97 Jeff Samardzija SP/RP CHC
98 Vince Mazzaro SP Oak
99 Jake McGee SP/RP TB
100 Mike Burgess OF Was
HM Josh Reddick OF Bos
HM Drew Stubbs OF Cin
HM David Huff SP Cle
HM Aaron Poreda SP CHW
HM Jeremy Hellickson SP TB
HM Matt Latos SP SD
HM Ryan Tucker RP Fla
HM Ross Detwiler SP Was
HM Jess Todd SP/RP StL
HM Ethan Martin SP LAD

We'll see how close I was in a couple days. Last year, I did pretty well. Only 10 guys or so were on their list that I didnt have either in my Top 100 or honorable mentions.
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Re: Predicting BA's Top 100

Postby kab21 » Wed Feb 18, 2009 11:57 pm

3 of the personal top 50's (Callis, Lingo and Manuel) are published in the BA prospect handbook. Not sure who else if anyone has input in the top 100 list, but here are a few things that I noticed

Alcides Escobar will be much higher than anyone expects. He ranked #5 8-o , #20, and #27.
Stanton will be around #15
Morrison up a little - 13, 14, and 20
McCutchen ranked 34, 40 and 50+ A bigger drop than I expected
LaPorta ranked 20, 26 and 27 A little lower than I expected, but you captured it
Dominic Brown ranked 40-50 for all 3 guys
Jason Castro made 2 of the top 50's

I'm sure there are some more surprises but those are the ones that jumped out to me.
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Re: Predicting BA's Top 100

Postby rhd » Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:15 pm

kab21 wrote:3 of the personal top 50's (Callis, Lingo and Manuel) are published in the BA prospect handbook. Not sure who else if anyone has input in the top 100 list, but here are a few things that I noticed

Alcides Escobar will be much higher than anyone expects. He ranked #5 8-o , #20, and #27.
Stanton will be around #15
Morrison up a little - 13, 14, and 20
McCutchen ranked 34, 40 and 50+ A bigger drop than I expected
LaPorta ranked 20, 26 and 27 A little lower than I expected, but you captured it
Dominic Brown ranked 40-50 for all 3 guys
Jason Castro made 2 of the top 50's

I'm sure there are some more surprises but those are the ones that jumped out to me.


Thanx for the response, kab21.

The items you listed surprise me a bit, too. I knew they were high on Escobar, but I didnt think quite that high. I guess he's this year's Elvis Andrus. There are mixed opinions on Stanton, so I'm surprised he's that high. McCutchen's drop is surprising since Manuel ranked him #9 on his mid-season list and he had a solid, if unspectacular, year. Brown has been surprising all along. He was a surprise #1 selection, and that indicated he'd probably be in the Top 100 somewhere. I didnt think he'd be that high. Castro was another that I figured would be in the Top 100 somewhere, but he was #1 in a very bad system, so I thought he'd be towards the back end.

Since I posted this, I've already found out (from Callis chat yesterday) that 2 of the guys I included didnt make the Top 100. Beltre just missed at #101 and he said that only 7 Texas guys made the list, which probably means that either Borbon or Main didnt make it either.
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Re: Predicting BA's Top 100

Postby Solar » Thu Feb 19, 2009 3:27 pm

Do we know when the list is due to come out? I'm getting anxious to check it out...
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Re: Predicting BA's Top 100

Postby kab21 » Thu Feb 19, 2009 5:18 pm

I also don't understand the big drop on McCutchen. Everyone complains about his power not developing, but he had tons of walks with a .372 OBP with some power with plus defense. I'm not sure if they looked and instead compared him with Maybin, Fowler and Rasmus and said that we can't have this many toolsy CF'ers in the top 20. I don't know.

Dominic Brown has been a good find that wasn't on my radar a month ago. Both BA and BP have had good reports on him and he's got some good numbers. Strangely his numbers look very similar to McCutchen's (power, K's, BB's, SB's) and he did it in A ball while McCutchen did it in AAA and is only a year older. Yet there will only be about 10 spots seperating the two in the rankings.

I'm not quite sold on Jason Castro yet (maybe top 100 for me). Arenciba made all 3 lists and I'm not sold on him with his low walk rate. Montero also made all 3 lists and I haven't decided yet on him as a top 50 guy.
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Re: Predicting BA's Top 100

Postby rhd » Thu Feb 19, 2009 7:28 pm

Solar wrote:Do we know when the list is due to come out? I'm getting anxious to check it out...


IN yesterday's chat, Callis said that it would be out next week. Previously, he had indicated it would be out today or thereabouts. That's why I posted my list on Tuesday, so it would precede the actual list by a couple days.
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