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Auction advice

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Re: Auction advice

Postby JEH » Sat Feb 21, 2009 5:43 pm

Quick hints on pricing players on the fly for this league (You don't mention how you get to 29 roster spots so I'll guess 3 extra pitchers and 3 extra hitters (any).):

Start with an ADP draft list for a 5v5 league.

Identify the players that do well/poorly in the additional categories (high BB, low K batters, starters with high QS (can use WHIP, ERA as a proxy) and set-up guys). Rearrange the list for these adjustments . . . the big change will be closers and high K/low BB hitters falling. Set-up men, good starters on bad teams and high OBP hitters will get a bit of a boost.

Then, assign each player the following dollar value:

(45.41 * SQRT(1.359 ^ (-1 * (ADP/14))) + 1

It's a quick guess, but it passes the sniff test. Player #1 (of 406 rostered) comes in at $46, player 20 at $37, player 40 at $30, player 60 at $24, player 80 at $20 and player 100 at $16.

If you think the number 1 player should be higher, replace the square root function with another root smaller than 2 and recalculate the constant (45.41).


EDIT: for the curious 1.359 is half of e (2.718) and the formula inside the SQRT() is the PDF of an exponential distribution using lambda = 0.5 (which is how we got the 1.359). The SQRT is simply to compress the values to match 'projected' values (which are generated off of EV projections and are often quite compressed themselves).
JEH
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