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Auction advice

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Re: Auction advice

Postby talan37 » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:30 pm

Those prices don't surprise me at all, in my experience most of the end of a auction draft is people filling in 1-2$ guys because they have played out most of their cash so 29 spots vs 23 sports isn't going to really make a big difference imo. My typical experience has been inflated prices early on, then normal to bargain prices, then some slightly inflated prices for the remainder quality players(remaining closers etc), then lots of bargains as most people are very low on cash.

If everyone is going high early on, you need to be careful not to sit back too long or your going to end up either a) overpaying for mid/low level players or b) not actually getting all the value you need to compete.
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Re: Auction advice

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:35 pm

When in doubt, don't bid.
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Re: Auction advice

Postby MTUCache » Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:26 am

Eh... maybe a couple of guys have gone for more than I would pay, but with that format it's not all that surprising.

As was said before, the difference between 23 players and 29 players is only going to be $6 for the majority of the guys in your league. There's nothing all that advantageous about having a great $30+ bench in your league if that means you miss out on top-20 talent because it all sold for a couple more bucks than you were willing to pay.

At some point you have to jump in there... just don't go too far over what you were planning on paying. Saving all your money for "bargains" later may seem like the play here, but your stellar bench isn't going to make much of a difference when you're left with no ace, no top-tier closer, a mediocre outfield and no good 3B.
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Re: Auction advice

Postby Matthias » Wed Feb 18, 2009 9:23 am

Yup. And if nothing else, established studs always are of more interest to people when trading. If you have say Johan or Hanley, everyone always is interested in talking deals. But if you have a whole team of Adam Dunns, then it gets tougher because people don't see a huge improvement over whatever hot bat they picked up off of the waiver wire or break-out candidate that they believe in.
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Re: Auction advice

Postby Mike_nyc » Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:45 pm

thanks - maybe im hesitant because this is my first auction. Though I look at reyes who went for 46 and I cant bring myself to pay the same for rollins.

This one guy took arod at 51 braun at 46 and is currently leading on rollins at 45 and howard at 40. Yea that looks great but he still has to fill 19 other starting spots with the balance which im assuming will make the rest of his roster weak.
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Re: Auction advice

Postby Mike_nyc » Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:54 pm

a big factor (i think) in pricing also has to do with the fact that this is a slow auction, and the league is pretty much on most of the day monitoring prices. Theres only 28 guys to look at a time and i think the majority are inclined to bid on anything. I mean halladay is up to 43, and santana only went for 36. Theres still a ton of good sp's that haven't been thrown out yet.
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Re: Auction advice

Postby RAmst23 » Thu Feb 19, 2009 12:36 am

Mike_nyc wrote:a big factor (i think) in pricing also has to do with the fact that this is a slow auction, and the league is pretty much on most of the day monitoring prices. Theres only 28 guys to look at a time and i think the majority are inclined to bid on anything. I mean halladay is up to 43, and santana only went for 36. Theres still a ton of good sp's that haven't been thrown out yet.


So yea, don't bid on Halladay at 43.

Some players auction strategy is to buy up several studs, then hope to find value later on. The guy going for Howard, Rollins, Arod, and Braun will be rounding out his roster with cheap pitcher. It's whatever you're comfortable with doing.
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Re: Auction advice

Postby SecretAgentMan » Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:12 am

The "Stars and Scrubs" strategy can work, but it is not generally effecive imo. It concentrates a great deal of your budget and your team's outcome on a handful of players. Making the rest of the roster much weaker and look out if one of those 40+ dollar players gets hurt. And you need to guess right on a some those cheap guy to have good years...but of course they generally are cheap for a reason and if 1/4 to 1/2 your roster is filled with $1 left-overs, well there is a reason they went for a $1. Yeah you might get lucky on a couple of them, but more than likely you end up fielding a team with some elite guys and a lot of very weak bottom of the barrel types and they counter all the value you got by loading upon 5 $40 types.

LIke anything else, common sense needs to apply and it is fine to pay $40 for Santana or $42 for Wright. It is not fine to pay $55 for them when they project out to say $40-45. And you certainly can't go for too many of these type of players. Eventually you need to balance the squad. and leave yourself enough cash to pick up a $25 dollar player that you can get for $18 or a $10 player you can get for $3. This is what I find can really help win you the league. Obviously you need some luck in any league as this game is a good deal of luck, but having a team of Hanley Ramirez, Pujols, Utley, Arod and Santana does you no good if the rest of your squad is made of Polancos, Aviles, Giambi, Jacobs-types. All OK assets, but basically bottom of the fantasy-worthy barrel that in an auction likely go for a buck or two and you usually get what you pay for to a cerain degree on the bottom.
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Re: Auction advice

Postby DaShiz23 » Thu Feb 19, 2009 9:12 am

I do not have much auction experience, but I would think from what I have read in this thread, is that there will obviously be a handfull of teams having a couple of 'top tier' guys, and the rest being average. The way things are going, I would rather grab 7 or so $25-$35 guys over 4 $45+ guys any day. At this point, teams paying each way would basically have the same amount of payroll left, but obviously in a much different situation going forward. Like mentioned before, the team that waited for the first 10-20 guys to be 'overspent' on, would be much more able to grab those excellant values that are available in the top 80-130 or so guys.
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Re: Auction advice

Postby Matthias » Thu Feb 19, 2009 1:49 pm

DaShiz23 wrote:I do not have much auction experience, but I would think from what I have read in this thread, is that there will obviously be a handfull of teams having a couple of 'top tier' guys, and the rest being average. The way things are going, I would rather grab 7 or so $25-$35 guys over 4 $45+ guys any day. At this point, teams paying each way would basically have the same amount of payroll left, but obviously in a much different situation going forward. Like mentioned before, the team that waited for the first 10-20 guys to be 'overspent' on, would be much more able to grab those excellant values that are available in the top 80-130 or so guys.

There's a couple of problems with this thinking.

First and foremost, the idea that the first 10 guys are overpriced is generally a myth. I can't remember where I read it, but apparently the second set of 10-20 guys are priced over their worth moreso than the ones who go first. This could be that the top guys are the top talents and people don't feel comfortable spending $40 - $50 on a single player. This could be that everyone is being "clever" and trying to lay low at first.

Second, I'm not really sure if there are enough guys in the $25 - $35 range for anyone to really snatch up 7 of them. Basically, those guys you're talking about guys who are 3rd-rounders, maybe 4th, and really, there's just not that many of them out there. Also, if you average $30 per player (if you're spending $25 - $35), once you buy 7 of them, you've spent $210, or over 80% of the normal $260 budget. You now would have to fill 16 spots (in a normal roster) with $50, i.e. averaging about three bucks a piece.

Really, the only best "strategy" is to develop a limit that you set for players based upon your or someone else's valuation for your league and settings and if a player is too high, let them go. If they're at or under your value, buy them. When you decide to do this doesn't really matter.
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