Keepers and position scarcity

[duckbillgates]

What are opinions on position scarcity as it relates to keeper decisions? I'm starting to lean toward thinking they hold a little more weight than they do in actually drafting.

Here's my thinking.

Player A projects to be about a 5th round draft pick. He's a 1B or OF.

Player B projects to be about a 6th round draft pick. He's a SS or 2B.

In a draft, it would be reaching to draft Player B ahead of Player A. However, if the two players are within a round or two, I would lean toward keeping Player B as it is likely easier to fill a hole at 1B or OF than 2B or SS.

Make sense?

[Yoda]

Hard to say without knowing your league, scoring system and number of keepers, etc.

In general, you want to keep the best players possible.

[Grounded Polo]

Five outfield and CI/MI leagues can usually balance out the position scarcity.

[kab21]

The one problem that I see is that draft position is already taking into account position scarcity.

I would prefer to keep the best players if possible. If it is a decision between keeping a 4th rd 1B or a 5th rd 2B then my decision is simple. I think the more appropriate question is what happens when you already have Pujols at 1B and you have 4th rd 1B and 5th rd 2B? Or when your best keepers are 4 SP's, 4 OF'ers, and 2 1B? It's time to start trading in that situation and probably yours if you want to keep the 2B.

[duckbillgates]

I suppose what I'm going for falls under VOLP (Value Over Replacement Player).

Say Player A projects to hit 30 HR and 100 RBI and Player B projects 25 HR and 85 RBI. Player A is, for fantasy purposes, the better player, but I am more apt to replace A's stats with another 1B than I am to replace B's stats with another 2B. Hence, the difference in position holds some weight in my decision.

I'm sure I'm being biased by the fact that the league I'm in doesn't have utility or CI/MI slots, but it would seem the logic still applies.

I could find some good examples on an ADP chart, but I'm trying to avoid getting hung up on specific players. What I'm saying is that if the players are within a round in value, I'd rather be looking for a 1B than a 2B going into the draft without knowing whom other managers are going to keep.

[kab21]

I suppose what I'm going for falls under VOLP (Value Over Replacement Player).

Say Player A projects to hit 30 HR and 100 RBI and Player B projects 25 HR and 85 RBI. Player A is, for fantasy purposes, the better player, but I am more apt to replace A's stats with another 1B than I am to replace B's stats with another 2B. Hence, the difference in position holds some weight in my decision.

I'm sure I'm being biased by the fact that the league I'm in doesn't have utility or CI/MI slots, but it would seem the logic still applies.

I could find some good examples on an ADP chart, but I'm trying to avoid getting hung up on specific players. What I'm saying is that if the players are within a round in value, I'd rather be looking for a 1B than a 2B going into the draft without knowing whom other managers are going to keep.

But wouldn't ADP already take VORP into consideration? I know it does when I do my rankings so why should I give someone an additional benefit that I already gave him?

[THE TERMINATOR]

It's a mather of what available that you like for there are a number of players that I do like.

Say if it is a Catcher then clearly I'm doing that. 2nd Base I might pass. Shortstop? Tuff Call

[Curtis Pride]

I would agree that all things being equal, I would prefer to keep a harder-to-fill position even if they are a round or so worse - just because it gives your team a lot more flexibility going into the draft.

[duckbillgates]

I would agree that all things being equal, I would prefer to keep a harder-to-fill position even if they are a round or so worse - just because it gives your team a lot more flexibility going into the draft.

Yeah, that's pretty much what I'm going for. Without knowing exactly which players other managers are going to keep, I'd rather play the percentages at a position with more depth.

And again, I'm only talking players with relatively similar value.

[Yoda]

I would agree that all things being equal, I would prefer to keep a harder-to-fill position even if they are a round or so worse - just because it gives your team a lot more flexibility going into the draft.

Well yeah but a lot of player values are already adjusted for position scarcity. I'm not really sure why you would treat keeper leagues any differently.