14 team, keeper league, keep 17 players, 5x5 roto, 1250 max innings.
Here are my 17 keepers as of now: C J.Mauer 1B A.Pujols 2B B.Roberts 3B M.Cabrera SS M.Young LF D.Young CF A.Rios RF J.Bruce UT P.Fielder BN C.Rasmus SP: J.Peavy, R.Halladay, D.Haren, J.Beckett, M.Cain, E.Bedard, C.Buchholz
Going into the draft, my two glaring holes are relievers and left field. My plan was to pick up a decent stopgap LF to platoon with Delmon (as I have the last two years with Byrnes and Bourn) in the supplemental draft. But a manager has approached me about trading Bedard and something else for Abreu. Now I know completing this trade will depend on what that something else is (I have Lindstrom, Hoffman, Francisco and Qualls available to trade, and then you can trade draft picks in the supplemental draft), but I wanted to know what you guys thought about the idea of trading Bedard for Abreu in general.
I definitely think Abreu is the more valuable player, but I wonder if he's a worse fit for my team. I don't worry about LF that much because I feel like the rest of my offense is strong enough to support a Delmon/Draftee platoon. I don't really need immediate production from Bedard and don't have to worry about his injury history that much for this year as he's my 6th starter which means I can hang onto him and hold out hope that he reverts his value closer back to his top 5 standing he had last off-season, and then trade him for something better than an old outfielder. So I feel like I should value Bedard's higher upside for the next few years more. Or is the immediate upgrade that Abreu will provide worth more than the risk/reward potential that Bedard offers? Let me know what you think, thanks.
abreu should still have quite a bit of value for the next few years. if you can get him for bedard+ i'd definitely do that. now that he's with the angels (probably hitting 2nd) i can see him running quite a bit more which would only increase his value.
Given the ages involved and the strategies you've outlined, I decline this trade.
Bedard is 30, and yes, he's coming off of an injured year, but he's a top 5 starter when healthy, and baseball's got DL slots. When he's pitching, you will get star output, and there's nothing saying he has to get hurt again this year. Abreu is a great player, or should I say was a great player.
I know the economy is sour, but he couldn't coax too much out to play the OF for anyone--he's looking at DH time and potentially a steep decline. Teams aren't going to trust him defensively too much.
For 2009, you would be better off with Abreu in a lot of scenarios, but this is a keeper, and you've got the better approach in your own reasoning for saying no.
(FTR, in my own keeper, I just traded for Bedard--to be my 6th starter behind Dice, Johan, Peavy, Wainwright, and Volquez. The price has never been lower on him, and the reward's still possible.)
As long as the extra player/pick that is added on to Bedrad is reasonable, I would take Abreu. Bedard had one good year in which he was a top tier pitcher (the year before that he was 15-11 with a 1.31 WHIP, not outstanding) He has injury concerns, and he is pitching in Seatle with no run support. Abreu will give you a solid year this year, and most likely next year. I'd make the trade, hold on to Young hoping he can turn it up one more notch this year, and find a young arm to replace Bedard. That will buy you at least a year or two to find a replacement for Abreu eventually.
hstlives wrote:As long as the extra player/pick that is added on to Bedrad is reasonable, I would take Abreu. Bedard had one good year in which he was a top tier pitcher (the year before that he was 15-11 with a 1.31 WHIP, not outstanding) He has injury concerns, and he is pitching in Seatle with no run support. Abreu will give you a solid year this year, and most likely next year.
Plus Mike Scoiscia is aggressive on the bases. If Abreu hits 2nd then I don't a see a dip in his SB. I also look at it this way Abreu or Young/draftee.
Take Abreu here. I see an upswing in numbers for him this season in LA. Bedard plays for a crap team and is injury prone. Granted he can be a stud if healthy but I would rather have Abreu for your team that you have.
I woudn't be worried about letting go of Hofman at all.
As far as Bedard or Abreu, it's tough. I'm not a big fan of Abreu, but it's clear that LA will keep him in the lineup so he should probably hit .290 with 20-20 upside.
2007 Erik Bedard was EASILY a top 5 pitcher. Maybe the best in baseball. But there were signs of arm trouble, particularly the 34% curveballs and late season injury.
I think Bedard has far more upside, but who's to say he can stay healthy? If he throws that many curveballs again, it might not happen. But personally I'd rather have Bruce than Bobby and I don't know how often he plays the field. He could eventually get LF eligibility, but as of now he doesn't have that. I'd stay put, and hope for 2007 Bedard.
Hoffman's nothing in a keeper. He's maybe not going to be the BP pitcher Keith Law is predicting, but the stadium switch and age aren't going to help him at all, and his FB is slowing to cut the difference between it and his change up. One year soon, and it could be this, he's just going away a la Todd Jones.
Still, I said earlier I keep Bedard nonetheless, and I stand by that.
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by BigDunn » Sat Feb 14, 2009 5:07 pm 
