Curtis Pride wrote:I forget the exact sources I used, but it was CBS, ESPN, Chone, Oliver, Marcels (minus the players with under 67% reliability since Tango says basically ignore his projections for players with under 2 years experience - I didn't want Marcels' penchant for under estimating playing time for those players to artificially drag down their aggregate projections)...
It seems like Marcel's conservative projections would actually be useful for balancing out the optimism from the others. If it's only 20% of the input, it doesn't seem like it would drag things down too far...
And if playing time is the issue, would it be possible to pro-rate the projections for each player out to a certain number of PA/IP to neutralize things? (I don't know how you would determine that number for each player, but it's an idea.)
Playing time was the issue, not the conservatism of their rate stats.
I could pro-rate their rate stats wit the average AB of the others, but it's not really worth it to me, honestly. It wouldn't move the needle much.
Really, all it did was remove Marcels projections for guys like Bruce, Longoria, Soto, etc. Tango has said himself that their projections aren't reliable because all he does it average their short MLB career with league average hitters. So it's likely to underestimate the playing time of the players fantasy owners care about, while also equating their performance to "league average hitters".
Anyway, including Chone mitigates losing the Marcels projections for that small group of people because that's the exact thing that Chone looks to improve on Marcels - which Tango has openly supported.
Thanks a lot, CP. I'm using these projections to help determine what kind of stats my team will produce and then compare those stats to what it'll take to win my roto league. Made a spiffy spreadsheet and everything. Again, big thanks.
Nice work on these. I was doing the same thing myself. I'll have to compare our final results. Did you end up getting PECOTA in there?
Roger Angell: I was talking with Bob Gibson and I said: 'Are you always this competitive?' He said: 'Oh, I think so. I got a three-year old daughter, and I've played about 500 games of tic-tac-toe with her and she hasn't beat me yet.'
Great tool, thanks for putting the time into it and then posting it out there for us.
I have to say, the board is reaching quite the level of synergy this year. Between rookiesandcream mdp rankings, your aggregrate projections, and then yoda and co's drafttracker spreadsheet rolling everything into one. Pretty impressive to see a project like that come together.
DaSh 1s wrote:PS how do u not want to cup the best player in baseball's sack?