kab21 wrote: pokerplaya wrote:
kab21 wrote:While I certainly wouldn't move Castillo into the leadoff spot since that results in 15-20 fewer PA's (for a season) for each player that is moved down in the lineup, everyone seems to be overreacting to how big of a drop Reyes SB numbers would take in the #2 or #3 spot. Carl Crawford hasn't had problems stealing in the #2 or #3 spot (among others). I could go into a long rambling post, but I wouldn't be terribly concerned about a drop in SB numbers.
His SB numbers dropped from 07 - 08 and he was always batting lead off. I don't think it is unreasonable for him to reach 50 SB's in the 2nd or 3rd spot, but if he is moved out of the lead off spot he will never even come close to 80 bags again.
Reyes did have a tender hamstring in '08 (maybe May). Most projections don't have Reyes getting 80 SB's (more like 60) in the leadoff spot, but why are his numbers going to go down significantly in the #2 or #3 spot? Is it simply because guys with Reyes skillset have usually only been leadoff hitters. Of course Juan Pierre who doesn't have the OBP that Reyes does got 64 SB's mostly out of the 2 spot in '07. Crawford steals lots of bases in the #2 and #3 spot.
It's because managers tend to not send runners with their cleanup hitter at bat and two outs. The situation of a leadoff hitter always sets up more SB opportunities.
Using Crawford as an example, he has stolen fewer bases from the No. 2 slot, and even fewer from the No. 3.
If your drafting a guy for steals, you don't want him batting third, even if it means a bump in RBI.
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