jonboy418 wrote:This is a crazy draft. But I'm sure with the set up, you'd still want to focus on hitters early. I would've taken Fielder with your pick.
Your pitching categories realy make you wnat to chase wins, which is extremely unreliable. I played with some numbers and if you had Lincecum's win/loss record with Matt Cain's numbers, Cain would be over 600 points. That tells me that an average pitcher could break out. But then you compare Prince Fielder's numbers with a late round batting draft pick (I chose Carlos Gomez because ESPN has him as the 120th batter - 10 teams - 12 roster spots) Fielder had 580 points Gomez would have approx. 295 points (rough estimate using the easier to look up stats)
In compaison: Someone like Aaron Cook could be had in the last few rounds and last year he would have brought you approx. 419 points.
There's massive depth in pitching with this point system, especially as erratic as wins / losses can be.
I'd go for hitters with power and the possibility to steal double digit bases, then focus on pitchers with high quality starts but without the brand name. Players like Joe Saunders, John Lannan, Kyle Lohse. You can bulk up on these average pitchers and stay afloat in the pitcher points and then blow away the competition in batting categories.
There will also be some quality pitchers on the waiver wire. Look at Cliff Lee, Ricky Nolasco and such. If you bulk up on average pitchers, you won't feel bad about dropping under-performers since you didn't invest highly on them. Whereas, you now paid for Gallardo. You can't drop him now, even if he has a below average season.
Thanks Jonboy418! Pretty sweet analysis...and it actually confirms why I stuck with my keeper hitters (which if you havent noticed rock bigtime for a 14-teamer ). Cook actually had 458 pts which was right alongside Zambrano and King Felix! Most top pitchers do end up in the upper tiers but you get alot more average pitchers in there than you do among the top hitters...spot on with your analysis! The only reason I took Gallardo there is because Lincecum outscored everyone by a ton with his win/loss record and stats last year. Since 36 pitchers were already off the board, and Gallardo was throwing like Lincecum back in 2007, and I am thinking his win/loss total has a good shot at being as good as Lincecum's since he plays for the Brewers rather than the Giants, I figured I couldnt pass on the 'next' Lincecum at pick 66 in a keeper (we will keep 10 eventually so). BTW I am targeting Cain for the exact same reason you stated above...and I can get him much cheaper!! Anyway, while Fielder did well, I figured I could get similar numbers from Markakis/Gonzales in the next round (I also don't like his weight issue and while I dont think he is Cecil, it scares me that Cecil hit 50 one year and then hovered around 30-40 for the rest of his career... plus I just think Gonzo/Markakis are better all around hitters). I just needed to have one high risk/high reward pitcher and Gallardo was the one I saw left. I certainly cant argue with taking Fielder though, hell I almost did.
Anyway, I was wondering what you thought of this plan for here on out...Take someone like Kemp/Votto/Ellsbury/Atkins/Mauer/Martin/McCaan next round and then take Cain/Harang after that. Like you said, with a better win/loss record Cain would have scored over 600. Harang pitched liked crap last year, but in years past he always scored over 600. Scoring 600 gives you a top 10 pitcher in our league and right now 40 pitchers are already off the board, so they seem like pretty good value no? Harang has actually been top 3 in years past. I don't think he is done at 30 right and just saw he lost like 20 lbs, plus the Reds should be better this year. Or would you pick a Garza/Nolasco/Pelfrey who can throw 200+ innings and should be on teams that have a more 'known' chance of winning. Or would you stick with two hitters (depending who is there obviously). While I totally agree with your assessment and its why I have 5 hitters and 1 pitcher right now while everyone else has mostly pitching, I still think I need to slowly build a staff along the way. I figure if I alternate taking a hitter and pitcher each round from here on out (barring someone falling where they shouldnt) I should have a great offense and a reliable staff also. The other thing to consider is that its a 14 team league that starts 14 pitchers so there really isnt as much waiver depth as you would think...in fact Lee was drafted last year near the end. Still, I do certainly agree hitting still is king early, I just feel having a few top pitchers who 'should' pitch 200+ innings and/or win is necessary to anchor the 14 spots we start. Oh, and I will be targeting Lohse and Saunders as they are on teams that should win. Thinking about Lannan also but he is a National...also trying not to take him too early as my bro played college ball with him...no playing favorites in fantasy right! So what do you think? THANKS AGAIN!
I like, of those listed: Kemp Votto Atkins McCann --I'd pick a pitcher before the rest-- Martin Ellsbury Mauer
Remember with batters, your goal is HR hitters with double digit steals. It's a 2/1 ratio on HR to SB, so a SB specialist really is downplayed in this league, which is why Ellsbury is so low on the list. Mauer does absolutely nothing for you in this league when you've got players like Iannetta, Soppach and Napoli out there.
For the pitchers, I wouldn't worry too much about chasing wins. Don't make it too complicated. Lincecum was 5th in the league with wins and he was on the GIANTS! Go after players with good peripherals and the wins could trickle in. Like I said, if Cain had Lincecum's win loss record, he'd be a top 10 pitcher and they even play on the same team, that's how screwy it is. Don't invest heavily in pitchers, it makes it easier to drop them if needed.
Pick best available from here on out, but remember, hitters are more important at the beginning of your draft.
jonboy418 wrote:I like, of those listed: Kemp Votto Atkins McCann --I'd pick a pitcher before the rest-- Martin Ellsbury Mauer
Remember with batters, your goal is HR hitters with double digit steals. It's a 2/1 ratio on HR to SB, so a SB specialist really is downplayed in this league, which is why Ellsbury is so low on the list. Mauer does absolutely nothing for you in this league when you've got players like Iannetta, Soppach and Napoli out there.
For the pitchers, I wouldn't worry too much about chasing wins. Don't make it too complicated. Lincecum was 5th in the league with wins and he was on the GIANTS! Go after players with good peripherals and the wins could trickle in. Like I said, if Cain had Lincecum's win loss record, he'd be a top 10 pitcher and they even play on the same team, that's how screwy it is. Don't invest heavily in pitchers, it makes it easier to drop them if needed.
Pick best available from here on out, but remember, hitters are more important at the beginning of your draft.
Actually, a high average and low strikeout rate is almost as important as steals and homeruns in this league. Mauer was one of the top 35 scorers last year in fact. I did a player compare of last year's numbers for a few players left on the board and pasted the links below (hopefully it works). You can see that Kemp's high strikeout rate really hurts him and Mauers avg and both Mauer and Huff's low KO's really help their numbers. While I think Kemp will be a monster down the road, I have to consider if he will cut his K rate, and increase his BB rate, something young hitters have trouble doing. While I think he hits around 30 HR this year and his average should be above .300 with 30 steals, his K rate really drags down his numbers! Still, since it is a keeper, I think I would take him over these other guys that are left but it isnt as clear cut as it may seem...especially since I can only keep 6 next year. Anyway, Mauer just got taken...then some more pitchers of course...LOL. Thanks again for your reply...any other thoughts you have after looking at these numbers would be greatly appreciated!!! And if anyone else has ideas, throw them at me!! THANKS!
jonboy418 wrote:This is a crazy draft. But I'm sure with the set up, you'd still want to focus on hitters early. I would've taken Fielder with your pick.
Your pitching categories realy make you wnat to chase wins, which is extremely unreliable. I played with some numbers and if you had Lincecum's win/loss record with Matt Cain's numbers, Cain would be over 600 points. That tells me that an average pitcher could break out. But then you compare Prince Fielder's numbers with a late round batting draft pick (I chose Carlos Gomez because ESPN has him as the 120th batter - 10 teams - 12 roster spots) Fielder had 580 points Gomez would have approx. 295 points (rough estimate using the easier to look up stats)
In compaison: Someone like Aaron Cook could be had in the last few rounds and last year he would have brought you approx. 419 points.
There's massive depth in pitching with this point system, especially as erratic as wins / losses can be.
I'd go for hitters with power and the possibility to steal double digit bases, then focus on pitchers with high quality starts but without the brand name. Players like Joe Saunders, John Lannan, Kyle Lohse. You can bulk up on these average pitchers and stay afloat in the pitcher points and then blow away the competition in batting categories.
There will also be some quality pitchers on the waiver wire. Look at Cliff Lee, Ricky Nolasco and such. If you bulk up on average pitchers, you won't feel bad about dropping under-performers since you didn't invest highly on them. Whereas, you now paid for Gallardo. You can't drop him now, even if he has a below average season.
I love this post. I couldn't agree more, and not only in this instance, but in most points leagues.
jonboy418 wrote:This is a crazy draft. But I'm sure with the set up, you'd still want to focus on hitters early. I would've taken Fielder with your pick.
Your pitching categories realy make you wnat to chase wins, which is extremely unreliable. I played with some numbers and if you had Lincecum's win/loss record with Matt Cain's numbers, Cain would be over 600 points. That tells me that an average pitcher could break out. But then you compare Prince Fielder's numbers with a late round batting draft pick (I chose Carlos Gomez because ESPN has him as the 120th batter - 10 teams - 12 roster spots) Fielder had 580 points Gomez would have approx. 295 points (rough estimate using the easier to look up stats)
In compaison: Someone like Aaron Cook could be had in the last few rounds and last year he would have brought you approx. 419 points.
There's massive depth in pitching with this point system, especially as erratic as wins / losses can be.
I'd go for hitters with power and the possibility to steal double digit bases, then focus on pitchers with high quality starts but without the brand name. Players like Joe Saunders, John Lannan, Kyle Lohse. You can bulk up on these average pitchers and stay afloat in the pitcher points and then blow away the competition in batting categories.
There will also be some quality pitchers on the waiver wire. Look at Cliff Lee, Ricky Nolasco and such. If you bulk up on average pitchers, you won't feel bad about dropping under-performers since you didn't invest highly on them. Whereas, you now paid for Gallardo. You can't drop him now, even if he has a below average season.
OK, I admit I am having a bit of remorse from not taking Fielder but what I was thinking was I wanted one keeper pitcher for next year and Gallardo looked to be that guy...the more I look back on it, the more I wish I had gone with Fielder though...then targeted Kershaw later! But don't be too hard on me, I still took Adrian Gonzalez a few picks later and I did keep Kinsler, Hanley, Hamilton, and Cabrera right. For a 14 team-league I think I will be ok ...well as long as I can navigate the quality start-average pitcher road...and I'm sure I'll be back here looking for advice on that soon .
Any thoughts on what hitter you would take next based on the player comparison I posted above? I'm up in 5 picks and Mauer and Rios just went off the board...THANKS!
jonboy418 wrote:I like, of those listed: Kemp Votto Atkins McCann --I'd pick a pitcher before the rest-- Martin Ellsbury Mauer
Remember with batters, your goal is HR hitters with double digit steals. It's a 2/1 ratio on HR to SB, so a SB specialist really is downplayed in this league, which is why Ellsbury is so low on the list. Mauer does absolutely nothing for you in this league when you've got players like Iannetta, Soppach and Napoli out there.
For the pitchers, I wouldn't worry too much about chasing wins. Don't make it too complicated. Lincecum was 5th in the league with wins and he was on the GIANTS! Go after players with good peripherals and the wins could trickle in. Like I said, if Cain had Lincecum's win loss record, he'd be a top 10 pitcher and they even play on the same team, that's how screwy it is. Don't invest heavily in pitchers, it makes it easier to drop them if needed.
Pick best available from here on out, but remember, hitters are more important at the beginning of your draft.
Actually, a high average and low strikeout rate is almost as important as steals and homeruns in this league. Mauer was one of the top 35 scorers last year in fact. I did a player compare of last year's numbers for a few players left on the board and pasted the links below (hopefully it works). You can see that Kemp's high strikeout rate really hurts him and Mauers avg and both Mauer and Huff's low KO's really help their numbers. While I think Kemp will be a monster down the road, I have to consider if he will cut his K rate, and increase his BB rate, something young hitters have trouble doing. While I think he hits around 30 HR this year and his average should be above .300 with 30 steals, his K rate really drags down his numbers! Still, since it is a keeper, I think I would take him over these other guys that are left but it isnt as clear cut as it may seem...especially since I can only keep 6 next year. Anyway, Mauer just got taken...then some more pitchers of course...LOL. Thanks again for your reply...any other thoughts you have after looking at these numbers would be greatly appreciated!!! And if anyone else has ideas, throw them at me!! THANKS!
jonboy418 wrote:I like, of those listed: Kemp Votto Atkins McCann --I'd pick a pitcher before the rest-- Martin Ellsbury Mauer
Remember with batters, your goal is HR hitters with double digit steals. It's a 2/1 ratio on HR to SB, so a SB specialist really is downplayed in this league, which is why Ellsbury is so low on the list. Mauer does absolutely nothing for you in this league when you've got players like Iannetta, Soppach and Napoli out there.
For the pitchers, I wouldn't worry too much about chasing wins. Don't make it too complicated. Lincecum was 5th in the league with wins and he was on the GIANTS! Go after players with good peripherals and the wins could trickle in. Like I said, if Cain had Lincecum's win loss record, he'd be a top 10 pitcher and they even play on the same team, that's how screwy it is. Don't invest heavily in pitchers, it makes it easier to drop them if needed.
Pick best available from here on out, but remember, hitters are more important at the beginning of your draft.
Actually, a high average and low strikeout rate is almost as important as steals and homeruns in this league. Mauer was one of the top 35 scorers last year in fact. I did a player compare of last year's numbers for a few players left on the board and pasted the links below (hopefully it works). You can see that Kemp's high strikeout rate really hurts him and Mauers avg and both Mauer and Huff's low KO's really help their numbers. While I think Kemp will be a monster down the road, I have to consider if he will cut his K rate, and increase his BB rate, something young hitters have trouble doing. While I think he hits around 30 HR this year and his average should be above .300 with 30 steals, his K rate really drags down his numbers! Still, since it is a keeper, I think I would take him over these other guys that are left but it isnt as clear cut as it may seem...especially since I can only keep 6 next year. Anyway, Mauer just got taken...then some more pitchers of course...LOL. Thanks again for your reply...any other thoughts you have after looking at these numbers would be greatly appreciated!!! And if anyone else has ideas, throw them at me!! THANKS!
It says this is a private fantasy league and my user ID does not have permission to access the league...
Hmmm, well I tried that link because I can't get it to look readable by pasting it or typing it (it keeps taking the spaces away) but here are the stats below...in an excruciatingly painful format to read, sorry! Basically, in 606 AB Kemp had 115 singles, 38 Doubles, 5 Triples, 18 HR, 76 RBI, 46 Walks, 153 KOs, 93 Runs, 76 RBI, 35 SBs, and a .289 BA for 408 pts. The KOs kill his numbers though. As you can see (well if it was easy to read you could!) Ellsbury outscored him by 20 pts (the last column) with just 9 HR and 15 more steals and a lower average. Now if Kemp can cut his KOs, Walk more, turn some singles into doubles, hit about 10 more HR, or raise his average over .300 than he could approach the 450-500 pts range easily. I think the last three are more likely to happen than the first and so I think he does score more points this year but when I have a catcher in McCaan scoring 434 or Martin scoring 423 it makes it a little harder decision. Hope this helps and again, would love to hear what you think...THANKS!
Anyone else have any thoughts on who they would take with their next pick considering those numbers I listed in the post above for 2008 scoring? I know its jumbled so you can just look at the last columns, they are the point totals in 2008 for these guys. I am still leaning Kemp and then trying to pick up Martin or McCaan on my next couple picks if they are still available...if not I will shoot for Soto, Iannetta, Clement, Wieters later. Is Kemp still the way to go even though he is lower on last years point totals? ...his K's killed him! BTW Mauer and Rios have already been picked this round...l am up in one pick! THANKS AND WHIR!!
MY TEAM right now 1B - Cabrera 2B - Kinsler SS - HRamirez OF - Hamilton DH - AGonzalez P - Gallardo
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by NittanyLions1 » Sun Feb 15, 2009 11:37 am 
). Cook actually had 458 pts which was right alongside Zambrano and King Felix! Most top pitchers do end up in the upper tiers but you get alot more average pitchers in there than you do among the top hitters...spot on with your analysis! The only reason I took Gallardo there is because Lincecum outscored everyone by a ton with his win/loss record and stats last year. Since 36 pitchers were already off the board, and Gallardo was throwing like Lincecum back in 2007, and I am thinking his win/loss total has a good shot at being as good as Lincecum's since he plays for the Brewers rather than the Giants, I figured I couldnt pass on the 'next' Lincecum at pick 66 in a keeper (we will keep 10 eventually so). BTW I am targeting Cain for the exact same reason you stated above...and I can get him much cheaper!! Anyway, while Fielder did well, I figured I could get similar numbers from Markakis/Gonzales in the next round (I also don't like his weight issue and while I dont think he is Cecil, it scares me that Cecil hit 50 one year and then hovered around 30-40 for the rest of his career... plus I just think Gonzo/Markakis are better all around hitters). I just needed to have one high risk/high reward pitcher and Gallardo was the one I saw left. I certainly cant argue with taking Fielder though, hell I almost did. 
...well as long as I can navigate the quality start-average pitcher road...and I'm sure I'll be back here looking for advice on that soon 
