So my league mates have gone crazy over pitching because they think our league is heavily weighted towards pitching. I'm not so sure I agree but... Anyway, its the fifth round and from what I see the pitcher with the best numbers/upside left is Gallardo. My question...who do I take with my first pick for this years draft (#66 overall)? We kept 4 this year and we will keep 2 more each year after this up until 10 players total 3 years from now. Basically all of the top pitchers are gone at this point as most were kept or drafted before me in the 5th round. I listed the top pitchers left below and I have the positions we start along with my keepers also listed. Who do I take out of these guys...I hope to get two of these guys I have listed (one at 66 and one at 75).
Here is who is left that I am considering now (point projections in parentheses) Fielder (513), Gallardo (495), Markakis (491), Bay (463) and some other guys I can target ...AGonzalez, Soriano, Crawford, Kemp, Granderson, Rios, Ordonez ...Bedard, Baker, CYoung, Garza, Cain, Nolasco, JJohson, Lilly, Soria, Harang, Grienke Vazquez, MRivera
DO I TAKE GALLARDO (Remember he was the other Lincecum in 07) OVER FIELDER FIRST (WOULD THIS BE CRAZY?) AND THEN PICK UP ONE OF BAY, MARKAKIS, SORIANO, AGONZALEZ, CRAWFORD, KEMP, etc. at 75? Or do I PICK FIELDER NOW AND GET SOMEONE LIKE HARANG/BEDARD. PROBLEM IS I REALLY ONLY SEE GALLARDO AS OFFERING ME ANYTHING AS FAR AS PITCHING AT THESE PICKS GIVEN HE IS YOUNG AND I COULD KEEP HIM NEXT YEAR...plus he plays for a contender! WHAT TO DO? Draft picks so far, My team and positions we start, and the points system is below. THANKS!
STARTERS C 1B - Cabrera 2B - Kinsler SS - HRamirez 3B OF - Hamilton OF OF OF DH U U P - start 14! Bench - 7 position players Minors - 2 players DL - 3 players
Scoring for Batting Categories 1B - Singles 1 point 2B - Doubles 2 points 3B - Triples 3 points BB - Walks (Batters) 1 point CI - Catcher Interference 1 point CS - Caught Stealing -1 point CYC - Hitting for the Cycle 10 points GSHR - Grand Slam Home Runs 1 point HP - Hit by Pitch 1 point HR - Home Runs 4 points IB - Intentional Walks .5 points KO - Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point R - Runs 1 point RBI - Runs Batted In 1 point SB - Stolen Bases 2 points SF - Sacrifice Flies 1 point SH - Sacrifice Hits 1 point
Scoring for Pitching Categories B - Balks -1 point BS - Blown Saves -5 points CG - Complete Games 10 points ER - Earned Runs -1 point HB - Hit Batsmen -1 point HD - Holds 8 points INN - Innings 1 point K - Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point L - Losses -5 points NH - No-Hitters 15 points PKO - Pick Offs 2 points QS - Quality Starts 5 points S - Saves 10 points SO - Shutouts 10 points W - Wins 10 points
Last edited by NittanyLions1 on Sat Feb 14, 2009 10:16 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Id take Fielder. Pitchers are too dicey. HR's are worth 4 points and he should get you plenty of those. I really like Gallardo but he was injured most of last year and who knows how well he'll hold up over an entire season. Id feel much safer taking Fielder in this spot.
Guzman24 wrote:Id take Fielder. Pitchers are too dicey. HR's are worth 4 points and he should get you plenty of those. I really like Gallardo but he was injured most of last year and who knows how well he'll hold up over an entire season. Id feel much safer taking Fielder in this spot.
Yeah, that is what I was thinking also. I also figured I could trade him for a pitcher if need be? Problem is the person who wins the league usually does have a few top pitchers. In 2007, our first year, I had Sheets, Kazmir, Burnett, Lincecum, Billingsley, etc. Last year I had all my great keepers and Fielder and still only came in 5th because my pitching didnt hold up. Only reason I lean toward Gallardo now is I may need to have at least one top starter to win and he is really the only guy I see doing it...He did throw 190+ innings in 07 so as long as his knee isnt bad then he should be fine right...man tough to pass on Prince at #66 tho...ughhh!
I play in a similar league as you do. If you would have had a solid pitcher already I would clearly take P Fielder. I think I would draft Gallardo in this instance for the reason you pointed out...he is the best pitcher remaining. you can't have E. Bedard leading your staff. AFter Gallardo I would then take Markakis if he were still available. Tough call giving up on the sure thing in Prince but I think you have good reasoning to draft Gallardo ahead of him.
OK so I ended up taking Gallardo. After looking at points in my league he has more upside than Fielder imo. Fielder had 580 points in 2007 which was great and was near the top of all hitters but the top 10 pitchers or so scored over 600, with Lincecum scoring 733. While I still think hitting is the way to go early because it is more predictable and less available usually, I needed to get a high upside pitcher to have a shot at those higher scores. Of course Fielder went with the next pick after me. Then another pitcher, Marmol. Hoping to get Markakis, Gonzalez, or Bay in that order. What do you guys think?? In what order would you take these guys looking at their projections and is there anyone else on that list above that you would take instead? THANKS AGAIN AND WHIR!
Thanks...I was thinking the same when you suggested it above! I don't think I will give too much up numbers wise with having Markakis or Gonzalez instead of Fielder. From what I see Fielder will never hit much over .300 but Gonzalez/Markakis both could do that if they keep progressing. Lets hope Gallardo is one of those 600+ point pitchers now!
One more pick to go and both Markakis and Gonzo are left on the board. Its gone Fielder, Marmol, Soriano, Youkilis, Bay, Crawford, Soria. Would you pick Gonzo if Markakis is gone or would you go with someone else?
Best of who is left Hitters: Markakis, AGonzalez, Kemp, Granderson, Rios, Ordonez Pitchers: Bedard, Baker, CRYoung, Garza, Cain, Nolasco, JJohson, Lilly, Soria, Harang, Grienke Vazquez, MRivera
Think you have to take another SP like Young or Garza. Also keep an eye out later in the draft for Travis Snider or Adam Lind both are going to have productive years, Lind in his 2nd and Snider in his Rookie - played the last month of the season and did great, I would suggest rd 9 or 10, maybe early but since a keeper would be a good choice
Elsy wrote:Think you have to take another SP like Young or Garza. Also keep an eye out later in the draft for Travis Snider or Adam Lind both are going to have productive years, Lind in his 2nd and Snider in his Rookie - played the last month of the season and did great, I would suggest rd 9 or 10, maybe early but since a keeper would be a good choice
Thanks for the reply. I already ended up taking Gonzalez as Markakis was gone by the time I was up. I have my eye on Young, Garza, Snider, and Lind but not till later. Young/Garza maybe next rounds I am up...Lind and Snider later as sleepers. Just too much consistent value in Gonzo not to take him at 75 and their are still a good lot of pitchers left to choose from next time I am up. Thanks again
This is a crazy draft. But I'm sure with the set up, you'd still want to focus on hitters early. I would've taken Fielder with your pick.
Your pitching categories realy make you wnat to chase wins, which is extremely unreliable. I played with some numbers and if you had Lincecum's win/loss record with Matt Cain's numbers, Cain would be over 600 points. That tells me that an average pitcher could break out. But then you compare Prince Fielder's numbers with a late round batting draft pick (I chose Carlos Gomez because ESPN has him as the 120th batter - 10 teams - 12 roster spots) Fielder had 580 points Gomez would have approx. 295 points (rough estimate using the easier to look up stats)
In compaison: Someone like Aaron Cook could be had in the last few rounds and last year he would have brought you approx. 419 points.
There's massive depth in pitching with this point system, especially as erratic as wins / losses can be.
I'd go for hitters with power and the possibility to steal double digit bases, then focus on pitchers with high quality starts but without the brand name. Players like Joe Saunders, John Lannan, Kyle Lohse. You can bulk up on these average pitchers and stay afloat in the pitcher points and then blow away the competition in batting categories.
There will also be some quality pitchers on the waiver wire. Look at Cliff Lee, Ricky Nolasco and such. If you bulk up on average pitchers, you won't feel bad about dropping under-performers since you didn't invest highly on them. Whereas, you now paid for Gallardo. You can't drop him now, even if he has a below average season.